Entering the 2024-25 season, the Ottawa Senators weren't predicted by many to make the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs. It seemed that the Senators were the only ones who believed a playoff chance was possible in 2025.
After falling to 10-12-1 after a loss to the Los Angeles Kings to close out November, the Senators picked up their game in December by concluding 2024 with a 19-15-2 record. Last Monday, the Senators earned a big 5-2 road win against the Nashville Predators to have 62 points and be in third place in the Atlantic Division. Then, three games in Florida arrived on the schedule.
The Senators lost two games against the Tampa Bay Lightning and one game against the Florida Panthers to head into the 4 Nations Face-Off on a bad end. Now that the break has arrived for all 32 NHL teams, the grade for the Senators may or not be higher than some may have expected.
Senators season grade as NHL heads into 4 Nations Face-Off break: C+
Being in a playoff spot is a big deal at the moment for the Senators with 62 points, but heading into the break without momentum can hurt a team. For that, the Senators grade at the break is a C+.
Yes, the Senators are in a playoff spot, which not many people expected, but teams are right behind them closely. The Detroit Red Wings trail the Senators by one point for the first Wild Card seed with one game in hand. Both the Columbus Blue Jackets and Boston Bruins each have 60 points. The New York Rangers have 58 points and the New York Islanders have 57 points.
Tim Stutzle leads the Senators with 56 points and he headed into the 4 Nations Face-Off break riding an eight-game point streak. Drake Batherson is second on the Senators with 45 points and Brady Tkachuk is third on the Senators with 44 points, and leads the team with 21 goals. Thomas Chabot also has had a huge defensive impact on the Senators this season.
After the top three scorers of Stutzle, Batherson and Tkachuk, the Senators don't have another 40-point scorer on the team. The big addition from the off-season Linus Ullmark had a rough start to the season, then got hot in December until he sustained an injury. In the two games he played after returning against the Lightning and Panthers, Ullmark earned a loss in both games and allowed in at least three goals in each start.
With a current 29-23-4 record, the Senators can make the 2025 playoffs and have a real shot to make it with where they sit. However, if they don't start to win games immediately after the break, the Senators can find themselves missing the playoffs for the eighth consecutive season.
The first game the Senators play after the 4 Nations Face-Off break is against the 25-26-5 Montreal Canadiens at home. Coming out of the break playing a team under .500 could be a possible good sign to gain points in the standings.
The first 10 games after the break are critical for the Senators to make a statement coming out of the gate:
Feb. 22 vs Montreal Canadiens
Feb. 26 vs Winnipeg Jets
March 1 vs San Jose Sharks
March 3 @ Washington Capitals
March 5 @ Chicago Blackhawks
March 8 vs New York Rangers
March 10 vs Detroit Red Wings
March 11 @ Philadelphia Flyers
March 13 vs Boston Bruins
March 15 @ Toronto Maple Leafs
For five of the 10 opponents after the break, the Senators have beaten this season (Sharks, Capitals, Red Wings, Bruins and Maple Leafs), the Canadiens, Jets, Capitals, Rangers, Red Wings, Flyers and Bruins have all won at least one game against the Senators this season. The Blackhawks have yet to play the Senators this season.
The first 10 games will provide an opportunity for the Senators to gain ground on teams chasing them in the standings. At this rate, the Senators can't afford to go on multiple game losing streaks with how tight the Eastern Conference standings are at the break.