Breaking Down The Ottawa Senators Playoff Push
Going 8-1-2 in their last 11 games, all of a sudden the Ottawa Senators team and fan base has been completely transformed, and now instead of thinking about the draft, people are focusing on the playoff push. Thanks to a shootout loss at the hands of the Calgary Flames last night, the Boston Bruins now sit five points ahead of Ottawa, but they have played one more game.
Also, the Florida Panthers lost in a shootout too, and they are four points up while having played three more. The one bad piece of news from last night was the Philadelphia Flyers winning 3-1. They’re also ahead of Ottawa, but by one point and the Senators have three games in hand too. All in all, here’s what the standings look like:
(Credit to @Ech28)
It may be a bit hard to see, but here each teams opponents down the stretch are listed as well as point totals. It’s a cool way to visualize the standings, and it’s interesting to see if catching the Bruins is actually possible. But in order to catch them, the Senators also have to pass the Panthers and Flyers. Is it doable?
Well the Panthers are three points ahead, but with three games in hand Ottawa should be fine. The same can be said for the Flyers, as the games in hand should make it easy for Ottawa to pass them. Let’s break down each teams schedule regardless.
Ottawa: 12 home, 8 away
In the last 20 games, having 12 at home is a huge advantage. The Senators haven’t been dominant at home, but I would still rather play home over anywhere else. Amongst those 20, only 11 of them are playoff teams. There will be some hard contests against the Rangers (X2), Penguins, Lightning, Red Wings, Canadiens, and Islanders, but there are also a few games against sup-bar teams. Of course we can’t leave out that they play the Bruins twice more, and those will both be must-wins for Ottawa.
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Cumulatively, Ottawa’s opponents have a total of 1,440 points, and an average of 72. Essentially their average opponent is as good as the Bruins are currently. Of course that isn’t a perfect science, but it’s interesting to see how strong or weak a teams schedule is. Overall it’s not too bad, and slightly favouring Ottawa.
Philadelphia: 8 home, 9 away
While the Flyers are ahead right now, that shouldn’t last for long. Ottawa can pass them tonight with a win against the lowly Buffalo Sabres. Also, having one more game on the road than home isn’t a great sign. Of their last 17 games, 9 of them are against playoff teams, which is actually slightly better than Ottawa.
The last game of the season for them is against Ottawa, but I’m not sure if it will matter at that point. The Flyers are a flawed team anyway, but they still have some hope. It’s possible they can make it and be a threat to Ottawa, but the games in hand hurt them a lot. Despite playing one more away game, their schedule isn’t too bad.
The teams they play are slightly worse than Ottawa’s, with the average team they play having 71.4 points.
Florida: 10 home, 7 away
Although the Panthers play 10 more games at home, 12 of their opponents are playoff teams. Some of them include the Islanders, Rangers, Red Wings, Lightning (X2), and others. The Panthers aren’t that bad of a team and they still have a shot, but their opponents will certainly make it hard on them. While they have a similar advantage to Ottawa in terms of home games, they play a lot of good teams down the stretch.
Will Ottawa make the playoffs? The odds say no, but that doesn’t mean they can’t do it
In total, their opponent has an average of 75.4 points, much higher than Ottawa’s. However, their last five games are at home which could help.
Boston: 8 home, 11 away
The Bruins of course have the best chance at making the playoffs, and if they win at a normal pace they should easily make it. However, it shouldn’t be too easy. 11 away games will be tough, and 10 of their opponents are playoff teams which is about average though.
In total the average team they play has 74.1 points, which is above Ottawa. If Senators fans should see any positives in this, it’s that the Senators have a favourable schedule compared to the Bruins, Panthers, and perhaps even the Flyers.
(*EDIT: Travis Yost shows through a more statistical way that Ottawa does in fact have the easiest schedule)
Of course through all of this, most people will still only focus on the Bruins losing, as the Panthers and Flyers are much less of a threat. But in order to pass both of them, Ottawa has to capitalize on their games in hand. Going into the last 5 or 10 games, realistically this should be a race between the Bruins and Senators.
Will Ottawa make the playoffs? The odds say no, but that doesn’t mean they can’t do it. Also it’s much more fun to cheer for a team that’s playoff bound rather than a team that is tanking. If the Senators want a shot at making it, they will have to win at least 13 of them most likely. It’s a tall task, but the hope is that some magic can save this season as it appears to have right now.
All we can do for the next several weeks is cheer on the team like we have never before.