Which goaltender should the Ottawa Senators protect in the expansion draft?
With the expansion draft coming up, it will be important to see which goalie might be taken or not, particularly when it comes to the Seattle Kraken. The Ottawa Senators are going to have to protect at least one goalie and this article will discuss which one that one should be. The goalies that are eligible to be taken are Matt Murray, Anton Forsberg, Marcus Hogberg, Filip Gustavsson, and Joey Daccord.
Matt Murray
After winning the Stanley Cup two times with the Penguins, Murray has not been performing that well. He signed a 4×6.5 contract with the Senators this past off-season, as a reclamation project. Although there were Senators fans skeptical of this decision by Dorion, this was a goalie that had proven he could play in the past, so he was someone to look out for. He certainly had his ups and downs, going from being a two-time Stanley Cup champion to becoming one of the worst goalies in the past two seasons. In the last two seasons (2019-21), he has a GSAx of -29.29, which is the third-worst GSAx out of all the goalies.
To start the season, he wasn’t any better than he was last season and this is because, during the first two months since the NHL resumed play, he had a GSAx of -11.12, which was the seventh-worst GSAx in the league. Before he was injured on March 14 he had an SV% of .882 and a GSAx of -19.03. Allowing easy goals did not make him look like the starter he was “supposed to be” coming into this season. However, after he returned on April 14, and had a record of 3-1, 2 shutouts, had a GSAx of 3.72 and an SV% of .951 before he injured himself mid-game. Although this is a small sample, it showed what he is capable of doing and could very well become the starter for next season.
Even though he is a goalie that is very good when he is on top of his game, it is unlikely that Seattle will select him due to the riskiness. This is due to his being injury-prone and the uncertainty of how he will perform. He has had only one very good career season, while the others were either mediocre or terrible. For a goalie that has a cap hit of $6.25 million, at the very least should consistently have mediocre seasons.
Anton Forsberg
Forsberg is 28 years old and the Senators are his fifth NHL team. He was picked up via waiver from the Winnipeg Jets on March 17th and provided stability in the Senator’s crease. He had a GSAx of -0.38 and although this means that he allowed more goals than expected, he was second in the team in terms of GSAx, behind Gustavsson. He was able to do this behind a Senators defence who allowed 10 HDSA (High Danger Shots-Against)/60, which was the highest in the league. However, he bailed out the defence most of the time, having an HD saves/60 of 8.71, which was the highest in the league and an HDSV% (High-danger save percentage) of .881, second highest in the league. The Senator’s defence wasn’t so good in front of Forsberg and this was also evident in the stat, xGA/60. When the goalie was Forsberg, the team allowed xGA/60 was 3.01, the third-highest in the league.
In the past, he only exceeded 0 GSAx once, back in 2015-16. He hasn’t played many games with the teams he has been on in the past, but he could very well become a solid depth goalie for the team. Recently, he inked a one-year, $900k contract with the team, which likely marks an end to Marcus Hogberg’s tenure in Ottawa.
While he is a solid goalie that provides some stability in the net, it wouldn’t make much sense for Seattle to take him. This is because he doesn’t have much upside and although he has proven to be a goalie that can bail out his team, from time to time, there are probably better goalie options for Seattle.
Marcus Hogberg
As mentioned above, due to Forsberg signing an extension with the team, it most likely means that Hogberg’s time in Ottawa has come to an end. This season, he had a GSAx of -11.84, which was the 10th worst in the NHL (out of goalies who played at least 10 games). However, after the goalie change that occurred on April 6, he improved, going from allowing -0.9 GSAx a game to -0.7 GSAx per game. He did not perform like he did last year when he had -0.2 GSAx per game, behind a weak Senators defence who allowed 32.49 SA (shots against)/60 (per Icy Data). Even though this, he was able to frequently bail out the team and boasted an HDSV% of .885%, 12th in the league (out of goalies with at least 300 TOI). Although he was able to make difficult saves, he wasn’t able to make shots that were “low danger”, having an LDSV% (Low-danger save percentage) of .932, second last in the league.
The Senators are likely not going to protect him and Seattle would most likely not take a chance on him even though he is a goalie who has proven he can make saves behind a weak defensive core. Although he is able to bail his team out more compared to other goalies, his LDSV% is concerning. He is still 26 and has proven to perform quite well at various levels (SHL, AHL, ECHL, etc.) so a team will likely take a chance on him. Should the Senators have kept Hogberg over Forsberg is a question worth pondering upon but one for another article.
Filip Gustavsson
Gustavsson, who is 23 years old was traded to the Senators in 2018 in a trade that sent Derrick Brassard to the Pittsburgh Penguins. He was once a highly-touted goalie prospect, winning the U18 and World Junior Championship (U20) Best Goaltender award. He also put up an SV% of .918 in the SHL, in the 2017-18 season, which is pretty solid. In his first season in North America, 2018-19, he played 31 games in the AHL, had a record of 12-16-3 and an SV% of .887. In the ECHL, he played 2 games, had a record of 0-2 and an SV% of .827. Not a great first year in North America. In his second year, he played 24 games, posted a record of 15-6-3 and his SV% was .889. Senators fans were disappointed in his showing and doubted if he could become the goalie of the future (which many thought he would become). To start the 2020-21 season, he played in HockeyAllsvenskan, which is a tier below the SHL, and posted decent numbers. An SV% of .919 and a record of 11-7-0. Although fans were happy to see Gustavsson performing well, fans were skeptical whether this could translate to NHL success.
He started the year off in the AHL and posted decent stats, a .910 SV% and after injury struck the Senators, he was recalled to the big club. He made his NHL debut in relief of Joey Daccord, who left the game due to an injury and stopped 8 out of the 8 shots he faced. He continued to play well until the end of the season, where he had an SV% of .933 and had a record of 5-1-2. His underlying stats show that he played well as well as his GSAx was 3, which was the highest on the team. What is more impressive is that he was able to do this behind a defence that allowed 1.91 rush attempts per game (with Gustavsson on the ice), which is the second-highest in the league (out of goalies with at least 300 TOI).
It did take him a while to find success in North America but after a short but successful stint with the Senators this season, it is easy to see why he was once a highly-touted prospect. Many think the Senators should protect him as he could very well become the goalie of the future.
Joey Daccord
Daccord, currently 24, was drafted 199th by the Senators in 2015. He has a proven track record at every level he has played at. He committed to Arizona State University, a school at the time that was unknown to many, and he carried the team to their first tournament action, in the 2018-19 season. He led the league in shutouts (with seven) and was named one of the finalists for the Hobey Baker Award and Mike Ritcher Award. Since then, he has played in the AHL (where he had an SV% of .915 in 2019-20) and had a short stint in the NHL this season.
In the NHL he was behind a weak defence, who allowed quality chances frequently with Daccord on the ice, as the HD Shots/60 was 9.67, 5th highest in the league and the xG/60 was 2.64, 18th in the league. For a goalie inexperienced playing against NHLers, this is difficult and he wasn’t able to put up good numbers, with an SV% of .897 and -1.74 GSAx. However, it took 3 years for Daccord to get accustomed to the NCAA before carrying his team to a tournament, so if Daccord can get accustomed to the NHL, he will be a player to watch out for. In other words, Daccord is a goalie that is good enough to be in consideration to be protected or not.
Final Verdict
There are multiple goalies that the Senators can choose to protect but it likely comes down to two, Gustavsson or Daccord. Daccord has proven to be a good goalie who if he can get accustomed to the league can possibly carry the team. He backstopped an unknown school to their first tournament action and looked good in the AHL last season, posting an SV% of .915. However, if needed, it can be argued that Gustavsson is the goalie who should be protected. He has the most potential and this season, he showed fans why he could become the goalie of the future. Even behind a defence that allowed a lot of rush attempts, he was able to make the stops as his stats show. Although his play in North America recently hasn’t been on par to the level many fans expected, if this year is an indication of what is to come, many fans should be excited and won’t be disappointed.
Stats come from NaturalStatTrick and Evolving-Hockey