3 spooky scenarios to send chills down Sens fans spines this Halloween
The Brady Tkachuk Contract
Since making his debut two seasons ago, 2018 4th overall pick Brady Tkachuk has been one of the Sens best forwards. With players like Mark Stone, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, and Matt Duchene all being shipped out during his tenure, Tkachuk is now pretty firmly the team’s best offensive weapon. Along with Thomas Chabot, he is the immediate future of the team.
Since July 1, though, Tkachuk has been eligible for an extension on his entry-level contract. There has been little traction on that front, however, so he remains a pending RFA for the 2021 off-season.
The Sens still have control over the 21-year old for the next five seasons, so it’s not as though he’s on the verge of leaving. Those five years also time up nicely with the team’s run of unparalleled success, which should be starting any day now, so even if he decides to run out the clock and bolt when he hits unrestricted free agency, the team could still get great value out of him while he’s here.
The nightmare scenario though is that, even with Tkachuk’s minimal leverage, the team still balks at his demands, which may end up in the $9 million range if he breaks out in his third season, and feels the need to move their top young player. Ottawa has shown a willingness to sign players such as Chabot and Colin White to big money extensions, but with the team’s notorious penny-pinching, every young player coming off an ELC is a test of ownership’s willingness to spend.
For the record, I think a deal gets done, maybe even in the near future, and we’ll look back at this period of concern as a massive overreaction. But for the time being, Tkachuk remains unsigned beyond next season.
Where are the other stars?
Brady Tkachuk looks destined to be a star player, and perhaps even a superstar. Thomas Chabot looks like he belongs in that category too. Beyond those two though, there are a lot of question marks surrounding the team’s prospects.
In his rankings of the organization’s young talent (under 23), The Athletic’s Corey Pronman ranked Ottawa 3rd, behind only the Rangers and Devils and up from 7th place before the draft. Before the draft, Tkachuk was the only player Pronman categorized as “elite” (Chabot is one year too old for the list) and in his 2020 Draft Rankings he categorized Tim Stuetzle as borderline elite.
Pronman is obviously still very high on Ottawa’s farm talent, as evident by their ranking across the league, but Josh Norris, Drake Batherson, Jake Sanderson, Erik Brannstrom and others all seem to fall short of potential star players.
The Sens are still loaded with talent, but looking at the system and there aren’t many players who project to be making regular all-star appearances. It’s always possible, maybe even likely, that one of more of them exceed expectations and become high-impact players, but for the time being, the Sens probably need a bit more upper-echelon talent before they can truly be considered among the league’s best.
Goaltending
This could probably be applied to just about every team around the league, but the Sens have a lot of question marks in the crease. The team made a move to improve the position this off-season, acquiring Matt Murray from the Penguins for a reasonable price then signing the pending RFA to a big but not crazy contract.
Murray has been all over the map in his four full seasons in the league, posting save percentages of .923, .907, .919, and .899.
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The sub-.900 mark he put up in 38 games last season made him expendable in Pittsburgh as they turned the reins over to Tristan Jarry, allowing Ottawa to acquire the 26-year old two-time Cup champion.
If Ottawa is able to get the Matt Murray who hovers around .920, they’ve probably solved their goaltending issues, and even if he’s league average the influx of talent on the way could make up for that. But his last season is very concerning, and even though he’s still fairly young, putting your faith in a goalie who’s never received a single award vote since his rookie season is a risky move.
Of course, the team has prospects in net too, with Marcus Hogberg having impressed in a starting role last season and Joey Daccord getting an extension this off-season. Daccord just turned 24 though and Hogberg will be 26 in November, so they’re already pushing the limits of what can be considered prospects and did not qualify for Pronman’s list.
Of those that did qualify for Pronman’s list, Mads Sogaard and Kevin Mandolese both got honourable mentions, while former goalie of the future Filip Gustavsson didn’t even make the cut, although there’s a case to be made that the 22-year old still has time to right the ship.
Personally, I’m a big fan of how the team has approached the notoriously unpredictable position, amassing a large collection of potential starters and hoping one will shake out, and the odds still look fairly favourable that one of them will. That said, one of the six is going to have to prove they can be the guy at some point, and until that day the position will remain a sense of concern.
Concluding Thoughts
Did we all make it through okay? Some of those stories made me want to pull a blanket over my head but I think there was enough light at the end of the tunnel to pull through.
The stories were also just that: stories. None of these have begun to unfold yet, Tkachuk still has another year on his deal, most of the prospects have looked great, and Murray is full of potential, so these were really more to put the scare on fans more than anything. The future looks bright and everything will be okay…
… or will it?