Flat Cap Era Presents New Trade Opportunities for the Ottawa Senators
As the NHL and NHLPA have agreed upon a deal to extend their current CBA (pending final ratification) the league has announced that it has locked its salary cap in at $81.5 million for the next season (and very likely a few seasons that follow). With just over $47 million dollars in committed contracts next season, the Ottawa Senators could hypothetically be in the most favourable position from a trade perspective to benefit from the impact of the Corona virus.
Exploring trade options now may be somewhat premature as we know the draft could potentially fill a couple of needs as early as next season. Choosing #3 and #5 overall, the Senators could potentially add 2 star-calibre players at no cost to the team. I do think it’s more likely Ottawa will opt to develop these players outside of the NHL and for that reason, let’s explore some new trade options.
Ryan Pulock
Fit for Ottawa:
Ryan Pulock is the first player that comes to mind when I think of the Senators most glaring need, a permanent reliable partner for Thomas Chabot. Pulock checks all the boxes in terms of a potential fit for Ottawa. He’s young at 25 years of age, he’s a right shot defenseman with good size (6’2, 217 lbs).
He can play physically, he’s responsible defensively and can be used in every situation. Pulock has put up great numbers consistently for the Islanders and has shown an improvement in each of the last 3 seasons from an offensive perspective, 10 goals, 25 assists in 68 GP this season. He would greatly improve the Senators’ best player, that’s basically all you need to know.
Why trade him?
The New York Islanders will be one of many teams entering the post COVID-19 league, in a bit of a tough position. While they may not be the Toronto Maple Leafs or he Tampa Bay Lightning in terms of a Salary Cap nightmare (don’t worry, I’ll get to them), their best player, Mathew Barzal, is coming off the final year of his entry level contract.
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That could leave little left for the Islanders to sign Pulock, who’s due for a significant raise from the 2-year, $2 million bridge deal he’s coming off. My thought is that the Islanders will get creative and find a way to sign both however, with the right proposal, perhaps they take an easier road.
Price:
NYI 1st (13-31 overall) & Vitaly Abramov
This is always the toughest part of any potential trade scenario. This must be something that works and makes sense for both sides. In this case, I think the Islanders would ask for their 1st round pick back (Sens acquired for JG Pageau at the deadline). Obviously speaking, the higher up that pick ends up, the more value it will have on the trade market.
I would additionally offer a prospect in this deal. The Islanders are fairly set down the middle (Barzal, Nelson, Pageau) so that all but eliminates Sens Twitter whipping boy Logan Brown from the discussion. Aside from Oliver Wahlstrom, I think the Islanders are quite thin in terms of projected top 6 wingers moving forward. Perhaps Vitaly Abramov is someone that still projects to be a top 6 player. The Ottawa Senator’s prospect pool is so deep sometimes I forget he’s there. The Islanders could then replace the void left by Pulock by drafting a player like Braiden Schneider, who could potentially step right into an NHL role next season on an entry level deal.
Anthony Cirelli
Fit for Ottawa:
Anthony Cirelli is a young (22-year-old) Centre who can play up and down the lineup. Cirelli has significantly improved his two-way game and can be safely projected as a top 6 Centre, most likely a second line guy. Cirelli could be a Selke trophy nominee for the next decade and as a result leaped over the more established, Tyler Johnson as the lightning’s third line Centre. For Ottawa there’s already a logjam of young Centre’s trying to break through at the NHL level (could get even log-Jammier after the draft), it’s just that none of them are sure thing-top 6 NHL C’s. Cirelli is just that and adds an element of tenacity to his game that allows coaches to fall in love with him. He has enough speed and skill to play top 6 minutes and like Pulock, can be used in every situation. Cirelli would surely improve the Centre ice position for Ottawa and add to the struggling special teams’ units. Cirelli produced 44 points in 68 GP last season and averaged over 18 minutes of ice time. Cirelli also notably lead his team in +/- with a +28.
Why trade him?
It’s inevitable for the Lightning. Something’s got to give, and someone’s got to go. With the salary cap lock at $81.5 million The TBL will be one of the teams greatly impacted by the Corona Virus. Cirelli is an RFA due for a raise and The Lightning will be hard-pressed to get under the cap next season. Having said that, they too can find a way to get creative and perhaps look to move a more veteran player or two as opposed to a piece of their future puzzle. From a Lightning perspective it’s more likely that Tyler Johnson or Ondrej Palat are the trade chips they look to deal over some of their young RFA’s (Sergachev, Cernak and Cirelli) but can they keep them all in tact?
Price:
NYI 1st (13-31) & Logan Brown 22-year-old C
Alright Logan, you’ve dangled your way out of my first proposal, but the fun stops here. The Lightning would essentially take a flyer on Logan Brown, potentially replacing Cirelli in the lineup and can select a player in the 1st round of a loaded 2020 draft class. From an Ottawa perspective I know many will say that at that price there’s really no point in making the deal. My response, simply put, I think Cirelli is the type of player that could be way more valuable than people think. I see a young, Patrice Bergeron type, 2-way guy with a ton of potential when I watch Cirelli.
Kasperi Kapanen
Fit for Ottawa:
Kasperi Kapanen would finally get the recognition he deserves as a top 6 player in the league. Speed and skill are kapanen’s game and he always stands out when taking in a Leafs game. The Senators certainly have holes to fill on their wings, Kapanen plays a similar style to the electric, Anthony Duclair. I think in an increased role, much like his former teammate Connor Brown, Kapanen would thrive in Ottawa. Kapanen fell just short of his PPG totals (0.52 19-20) from a season ago (0.56 18-19) putting up 36 points in 69 GP this season but it should be notated that his ice time dipped almost a full minute from last season (16:37 18-19 15:47 19-20).
Again, I think it’s a no brainer that he’d get a large jump in ice time under DJ Smith as well as a large role on the PP. Perhaps he and Duclair could be line mates for incredible speed from the wings. I also like Kapanen’s physicality and ability to fight for pucks. I think this quality is lacking on The Leafs roster and has really prevented them from going places. In Ottawa however, The Sens are all attuned to playing with that same mindset under DJ Smith and Kapanen would fit right into the mold.
Why trade him?
Honestly it wouldn’t surprise me if Kapanen wanted to play in a quieter market. He took a lot of heat from the media this season as Toronto media continues to ridicule players under the largest microscope in the league. As the team struggled to find their identity, despite having a championship caliber roster on paper, Kapanen became a media whipping boy. I thought his days in Toronto were numbered midway through this past campaign and again with the pandemic it’s now certain that The Leafs will have to shed some salary.
Certainly, they’ll try to protect their big six in Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, John Tavares, Morgan Reilly and Frederick Andersen. Outside of those guys, Leafs brass Kyle Dubas and Brendan Shanahan will have to be one of the most creative teams when they prepare to get under the cap next season.
Obviously, no one was preparing for a global pandemic and the economic fallout from that but the Leafs really handcuffed themselves in terms of adding much, if any quality around their core players. In fact, they may be forced to try to move on from one of their core players to round out a competitive roster. Guys like Andreas Johnsson and Kasperi Kapanen did an excellent job in lesser roles on the Leafs this season however, before considering reshaping their core, surely, they’ll look to move on from these guys first.
Price:
Alex Formenton
I think Formenton fits the mold here in terms of what The Leafs will have to do moving forward if they want to keep their core intact. Formenton essentially can step right into the NHL next season after a fantastic rookie year in Belleville of The American league (53 points in 61 GP, including 27 G). For the Leafs, he brings a very similar skillset to what Kapanen can provide but he’d be on a fresh ELC for the next 3 years at league minimum. Formenton is the younger player, just 20 years of age and could very well turn out to be a better all-round player than Kapanen. For Ottawa, you’re getting a young, established player and basically a mold of what you want Alex Formenton to become but it’s been tried and tested at The NHL level. As we know from the past (Curtis Lazar), no prospect is a sure thing.
Next. Ottawa Senators: SenShot mailbag from the editor. dark
To conclude, I think the salary cap situation could place The Sens in a very favorable position heading into the upcoming off-season. If there’s an opportunity to increase the pace of the rebuild by adding a young player to your core as opposed to a placeholder veteran and the price is right, there should be nothing stopping Pierre Dorion from pulling the trigger. Unless of course his boss holds firm on not spending money until the following season. If that’s the case, I’ve wasted my time writing this and The Senators will surely miss out on a once in a rebuild opportunity to add pieces that would otherwise be unavailable.