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Ottawa Senators: The Trade Value Of Erik Karlsson

By Alexander O'Reilly

OTTAWA, ON - FEBRUARY 17: Ottawa Senators Defenceman Erik Karlsson (65) waits for a face-off during second period National Hockey League action between the New York Rangers and Ottawa Senators on February 17, 2018, at Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, ON, Canada. (Photo by Richard A. Whittaker/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
OTTAWA, ON - FEBRUARY 17: Ottawa Senators Defenceman Erik Karlsson (65) waits for a face-off during second period National Hockey League action between the New York Rangers and Ottawa Senators on February 17, 2018, at Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, ON, Canada. (Photo by Richard A. Whittaker/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /
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The Trade Deadline is six days away and it could be the most eventful time in Ottawa Senators history. With the team deep in the depths of the standings there are rumours that Erik Karlsson could be on his way out of town.

The Ottawa Senators weren’t the Stanley Cup contender they expected to be this year, they aren’t even a playoff contender. With this realization, the Sens are forced into a rebuild, and rumours have been surrounding the status of captain Erik Karlsson. With that in mind let’s discuss whether he’ll be traded and what he’s worth.

Karlsson Should Not Be Traded

Before getting into this I would like to make it clear that I am against the idea of trading Karlsson. I think it’s a bad idea in nearly every way unless Toronto or Edmonton was foolish enough to trade McDavid or Matthews. That will never happen, so I don’t think it’s a good idea. With that in mind let’s take a look at what Karlsson is worth and what would be acceptable for a return for the Ottawa Senators.

Karlsson’s Value

First let’s look at what Karlsson is as a player and what he brings to a team. Karlsson at his best is by a wide margin the best defenceman in the league and is a top three player in the league. He is historically great offensively and will immediately greatly improve even the best teams in the league. However, this season he has performed well bellow his standard. Much of this can likely be attributed to inefficient training after being injured throughout the summer. In all likelihood Karlsson will return to his previous form next season. However, this could affect his value this season. That being said, I think Karlsson is at a level and his name demands a level of respect that performing sub-par for a few months will not affect his value. If a team wants to acquire him they will have to pay top dollar for him.

A Possible Package

One trade that can be used as a benchmark for what Karlsson is worth is the Duchene trade earlier in the season. While slightly different because it was a three-way deal, it can be used as a starting point. The Avalanche acquired three relatively high end prospects and one pick in each of the first three rounds of the draft, as well as an AHL goaltender. They acquired seven pieces for Matt Duchene who is a star in his own right, but no where near the level of Karlsson.

In order for a deal to be good enough for the Sens to trade Karlsson it would have to involve a massive package that includes young NHL ready players, prospects, and first round picks. An example of a trade that would approach acceptable would be with the Tampa Bay Lightning where they trade Sergachev, Point, and their first round pick for the next three seasons. Sergachev is a future star on defence, Point has the potential to be a consistent point per game forward in the future and the firsts will always be required in a deal for Karlsson.

With this sort of deal many people may look at it as an over-payment, however, you have to keep in mind what a first round pick is. For two of those seasons the Lightning will have Karlsson and will be favourites for the Stanley Cup. Then even if they don’t re-sign him for the third year they will still likely be among the best teams in the league. Those first round picks will likely be at the very end of the first round, therefore giving lower quality players.

The Perception Of Prospects And Picks

As for Sergachev and Point, a deal for Karlsson starts with some of the best prospects in the league. Then first round picks are needed. While this may be looked at as an over-payment by many, I would argue that it may be an underpayment. Karlsson is a historically great defenceman. Those two prospects have the potential to be great and first round picks can turn into anything. However, they are all maybe’s, they aren’t guarantees.

Next: Ottawa Senators Trade Dion Phaneuf To LA For Marian Gaborik

The Risk Of A Trade

When looking at trading a player like Karlsson you have to be wary of the risks. Karlsson is Karlsson and always will be. These five pieces could be anything, but they won’t be Karlsson. The first round picks could fizzle and Sergachev and Point could cap out at their current level. A trade like this is a risk for both sides that could pay off in both directions. However, with all this said I’m still of the belief that trading Karlsson is a bad idea for the Ottawa Senators.

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