Ottawa Senators Rank High in Goals Despite Low Shot Totals

Good things tend to happen when you get the puck on net. However, the Ottawa Senators managed to succeed in terms of scoring goals despite not being very trigger happy relative to other teams in the league.

During the 2015-2016 season, the Senators ranked 9th in the NHL in goals per game. It’s an impressive ranking, but made even more noteworthy when considering they were just 27th in the NHL in shots per game.

Quantity can often make up for quality in the sense that more attempts will increase the likelihood of success.

In the context of a hockey game, the more times a team shoots, the more goals they should end up having by the end of the season.

Theoretical probably dictates this, but reality isn’t always as smooth. Not all shots are created equal, and not all players have the same likelihood of scoring on any given shot as any other player.

A skilled sniper is far more likely to light the lamp than a depth defenseman not known for his shooting ability.

The Senators have numerous goal scorers, but ranking 27th in the NHL in shots per game is wasting that talent to a large extent.

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It sounds simple, but for this squad, more pucks on the net is going to mean more goals. They were a top 9 goal scoring team while ranking in the bottom 4 in shots per game. That’s pretty remarkable.

None of the 3 teams below them in shots per game scored more goals than the Senators. The closest comparison in terms of shooting pattern to them is probably the New York Rangers.

The Rangers were similarly limited in attempts on goal, ranking 26th in the league in shots per game.

However, they were able to capitalize even better on those opportunities than the Senators were, ranking 7th in the league in goals per game.

The other end of the spectrum is probably the Toronto Maple Leafs. They ranked just 28th in the NHL in goals per game despite ranking 6th in the NHL in shots per game.

The only two Senators players who ranked in the top 80 in total shots on goal were Erik Karlsson and Mike Hoffman.

Zack Smith scored 25 goals on just 121 shots on goal, leading the NHL in shooting percentage. Mark Stone scored 23 goals on 151 shots on goal. Jean-Gabriel Pageau scored 19 goals on 133 shots on goal.

No forward on the team had more Average Time on Ice than Stone, yet he only ranked 4th among forwards on the team in shots on goal.

Selectiveness is important, but when a player has the goal scoring ability he does, that talent doesn’t get fully utilized if he doesn’t shoot as often as he could.

In 178 career games, Stone has a shooting percentage of 15.3%. He could easily score 30 goals if he increases his shot totals just slightly over the course of a season.

Let’s assume he shoots at 15% next season. 200 shots on goal at 15% is exactly 30 goals. If he continues at a rate even slightly lower than his career percentage but increases his shots on goal, the Senators can boast that they have another 30 goal scorer on the roster.

He has never had more than 157 shots on goal in a season, though. It’s challenging to create more shots within the flow of an offense, but there’s hope for next season.

New head coach Guy Boucher ran a very aggressive 1-3-1 forecheck in Tampa Bay that forces turnovers and leads to quick transitions.

That scheme could generate more scoring chances for the offense, and really increase the stats of certain players. Stone can be one of those guys who benefits.

Boucher’s aggressive scheme combined with talented goal scorers makes the Senators very likely to be one of the highest scoring teams in the NHL next season.

Next: Ottawa Senators Top Line Middle of the Pack in Atlantic Division

They have proven that they can be in that upper tier with limited shots, and if they’re let loose in an aggressive offensive scheme, the sky’s the limit.

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