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Ottawa Senators Need Their Goaltending Duo to Thrive

By Ian Smith |
Mar 22, 2016; Ottawa, Ontario, CAN; Washington Capitals left wing Alex Ovechkin (8) scores against Ottawa Senators goalie Craig Anderson (41 in the first period at the Canadian Tire Centre. Mandatory Credit: Marc DesRosiers-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 22, 2016; Ottawa, Ontario, CAN; Washington Capitals left wing Alex Ovechkin (8) scores against Ottawa Senators goalie Craig Anderson (41 in the first period at the Canadian Tire Centre. Mandatory Credit: Marc DesRosiers-USA TODAY Sports

They say that a team only goes as far as their goaltending will carry them, and the Ottawa Senators have some enigmatic netminders.

Craig Anderson seems to alternate dominant seasons with lackluster ones, and Andrew Hammond didn’t follow up his historic rookie season with an equally impressive second season.

Both guys have proven to be capable of greatness, but also spend long stretches trapped in mediocrity.

As the Senators try to avoid missing the playoffs for a second consecutive season, they need strong performances from those two.

How strong, though? I wanted to look over data from the past three seasons to figure out the typical save percentage necessary to get a team to the playoffs.

Of course, there’s multiple factors that contribute to a successful playoff squad, and a high save percentage can’t completely combat a defense that makes a goalie work too hard.

But I wanted to get a feel for what the typical save percentage is for a playoff team, based on the past 48 teams that have made the playoffs.

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The results were fascinating. According to stats from ESPN, the lowest percentage was .903 by the New York Islanders in 2015. The highest percentage was .928 by the Boston Bruins in 2014.

Being a prisoner of empirical evidence has its risks, but for these purposes, we’ll treat those percentages as the range.

Out of the 48 teams, 46 had a save percentage of at least .905. It’s very hard to generate an offensive attack that can compensate for a low save percentage like that.

39 out of the 48 teams had a save percentage of at least .910. It’s still difficult to make the playoffs below that level.

23 out of the 48 teams had a save percentage of at least .915. That’s less than a majority, so this is the stage where a team looks to be in pretty good shape.

So most playoff teams typically don’t have a save percentage of at least .915, but what are the chances that a team that registers that impressive mark gets into the playoffs?

Over the same time frame, 27 teams have hit that level over the course of an entire season. 23 out of those 27 teams have made the playoffs, including 10 out of 10 in 2016.

This is the milestone that nearly guarantees a playoff berth. Can Anderson and Hammond register a .915 save percentage collectively?

According to SportingCharts, the Senators as a team made 2,447 saves on 2,688 shots for a save percentage of .910 during the 2015-2016 season.

They need elevated play from Anderson and Hammond next season to give them a good chance to make the playoffs.

Hammond was plagued with injuries last season, so hopefully his numbers increase just due to being healthier.

Anderson lead the NHL in save percentage back in the 2012-2013 season, and if he can get closer to that level again, it would really benefit the Senators.

At age 35 that’s easier said than done, but it’s encouraging to know that when Anderson is having a good season, he’s an especially dominant presence in net.

Next: Ottawa Senators General Manager Confident in Lineup

A huge x-factor for the Senators’ playoff hopes is their goaltending. When Anderson and Hammond play up to their abilities, they’re a good enough duo to lead Ottawa into the postseason.

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