Ottawa Senators Have Arbitration Date with Mike Hoffman

The Ottawa Senators have a more concrete end date in the Mike Hoffman contract dispute. Hoffman has received an arbitration hearing set for August 4th.

Ideally, the Ottawa Senators would still like to get a deal done with the speedy sniper before that date, but that doesn’t appear probable at this point.

Once August 4th rolls around, it’s out of the Senators’ hands. An independent arbitrator will decide not only the fate of Hoffman for this upcoming season, but perhaps the future of Hoffman in this league going into the future.

Arbitration means that Hoffman will end up getting a 1 year contract, and next offseason he can exercise his right to become an unrestricted free agent.

The Senators are in a difficult predicament with Hoffman. Clearly they don’t think he’s worth a long term contract, otherwise a deal would be done by now.

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Letting this thing go to arbitration is essentially the same thing as refusing a long term deal. If Hoffman can’t get the type of money he wants from the Senators, then it indicates that they don’t view him as part of their future vision for the team.

Would they reverse that stance if he he scored 35-40 goals next season? Probably, but at that point the price tag for Hoffman would go up even higher than it already is.

They’ll look back at this offseason and wish that they had the foresight to sign him to a contract that would end up looking like more of a bargain.

If the Senators give him a long term contract for something around $5 million per season and Hoffman answers with a 35 goal season, they’ll look like geniuses.

Conversely, if he lingers in the mid 20s or regresses even further after the long term deal is signed, then the Senators could suffer a major case of buyer’s remorse.

They’re taking an even bigger risk by not locking him up long term, though. They can invest in him now and end up getting a great rate for a 35 goal scorer down the road.

If he hits unrestricted free agency coming off a 35+ goal season, the Senators will have to compete against teams with deep pockets to keep Hoffman.

Adding to the pessimism, maybe Hoffman wouldn’t feel a connection to a team that clearly didn’t believe in his ability. Why would he feel enthusiastic about staying at an organization like that?

It really comes down to whether or not you believe Hoffman is going to increase his goals total to somewhere in the mid 30s. I think he will, hence I believe the Senators are making the wrong choice.

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This looks like a terrible move by the Senators if they let this go to arbitration. If Hoffman gets a 1 year deal and then has a career season, he’s probably going to leave, and the Senators will have lost an elite goal scorer simply because they didn’t have faith in him.