Ottawa Senators G Andrew Hammond Deserves More Starts

Andrew Hammond burst onto the scene with the Ottawa Senators displaying such promise during the 2014-2015 season. Although his play declined last season, it’s hard not to still retain some optimism for the type of goaltender he can develop into.

He had his first career start for the Ottawa Senators in February of 2015, and proceeded to finish out the season on an unprecedented run.

He went an incredible 20-1-2 over his next 23 games. No goaltender has ever won that many games in their first 23 NHL starts.

He finished that season with a save percentage of .941 and a goals against average of 1.79, leading the Senators on an end-of-season charge to the playoffs.

His expanded statistics show that he wasn’t just coasting behind an impressive lineup, but displaying goaltending excellence night in and night out. In his first 12 starts, he allowed 2 goals or less in each game. Only Hall of Fame netminder Frank Brimsek equalled that feat.

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His success didn’t continue into the playoffs, though. He was benched in favor of Craig Anderson after giving up 7 goals in the opening 2 games against the Montreal Canadiens.

Anderson’s play was far superior in that series despite the eventual Senators’ elimination, and he ended up starting 60 games in 2015-2016 for the Senators the next regular season.

Hammond followed up his phenomenal 2014-2015 season with a more mediocre season as Anderson’s backup. He went 7-11-4, which must have been sobering for him after a season in which he barely knew what it was like to lose a game.

The defense tended to play better in front of Hammond than for Anderson, allowing less shots and causing Hammond to have a lower goals against average than Anderson despite a lower save percentage. Anderson edged out Hammond in save percentage .916 to .914, but had a 2.78 goals against average to Hammond’s 2.65 goals against average.

Hammond was more steady than Anderson in net, though. Not as many peaks, but not as many valleys either. Anderson notched a shutout once every 15 starts. Hammond only had 1 shutout in 21 starts.

What Hammond lacked in dominance he made up for in consistency. He had a quality start percentage of 61.9%, which is very good. Anderson had a quality start percentage of 51.7%, which is not very good.

A quality start is defined as any start where a goaltender has a save percentage better than the league average for that season, or at least 88.5% save percentage in games with 20 or fewer shots faced. An average seasonal performance in this regard for a goalie is about a 53% quality start percentage.

In 21 starts last season, Hammond only registered 1 Really Bad Start, which is defined as any start with a save percentage below 85%. For comparison’s sake, Anderson had 60 starts and averaged a Really Bad Start almost every 7 games.

Even if Hammond wasn’t playing as well as he had the previous season, he was still a more consistent performer in net than Anderson was.

Comparing their Goalie Point Share totals is illuminating as well. Based on his starts, Anderson contributed a point every 5.17 starts in net. Hammond contributed a point every 5 starts.

Anderson is 35 years old, while Hammond is going to turn 29 next season. With his youth combined with a steadier performance last season, it stands to reason that Hammond should be given an opportunity for more playing time next season.

It’s not that Anderson is bad, but for a guy who started 60 games last season, he was one of the weaker performers amongst goaltenders.

Tuukka Rask and Pekka Rinne had relatively poor seasons as well for guys who earned that much playing time, but in fairness to them, their ceilings are both higher than Anderson’s.

What seems increasingly likely from statistical evidence is that Anderson and Hammond are two decent but not great goaltenders. Some combination of the two of them may be able to hide certain deficiencies each possesses.

The Senators don’t have an elite goaltender on their roster amongst these two, but Hammond at least has both youth and that historic regular season run in 2014-2015 to hang his mask on.

Anderson just isn’t dominant enough to warrant 60 starts in a season. Assuming both he and Hammond are healthy, that total should go down if the Senators wish to get a better read on the type of player that Hammond could be.

Even in his underachieving season of 2015-2016, he was the more consistent performer of the two. His save percentage was slightly lower, but he didn’t bring the same threat of implosion that Anderson did.

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At age 35, Anderson pretty much is what he is at this point. Hammond still has room to grow, though. Anderson’s recent performance doesn’t make him entitled to his lofty playing time, and the Senators would be wise to really give Hammond more playing time this upcoming season.

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