Ottawa Senators: Three Potential Outcomes For Next Season

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Heading into the 2015-16 season, there are a few plausible scenarios that will occur for the Ottawa Senators. That sounds pretty straight forward, as most teams will either have a good season or a bad season. However, each team is capable of having various degrees of success or failure, and I wanted to share what I believe to be three outcomes for the Senators this season.

Of course there is a chance that none of these totally happen, but given the teams history and their present roster, I can’t imagine that happening.

So here are the three potential outcomes for Ottawa next season, starting with the most likely:

1. Slip into the playoffs with a wildcard berth

The Senators have been doing this ever since 2008. They were a contender every year before that in the early-to-mid 2000’s, but since their Stanley Cup Final run the Senators have only won one round. They were able to finish 5th in the East back in 2010, although the conference was very weak that year. Ottawa never makes it easy on themselves when it comes to making the playoffs, so why should we expect any different?

They haven’t added any players to the roster, but they have lost Erik Condra, David Legwand, Robin Lehner. They aren’t massive blows, but losing Condra will sting a bit and Lehner might as well. They will have to carry over their solid play from the end of last season into the new season, and even then they could still be a fringe playoff team.

Ottawa just doesn’t have the star power to match up against Tampa Bay, New York, Washington, and even Detroit. They could still grab a wildcard though, as the East is always wide open. In this scenario, the season would go like most other years, except there wouldn’t be an incredible run. They would be hovering between the first wildcard and 5th throughout he season, while most of the players making little or no progression.

2. Youngsters regress, goaltending plummets. Team finishes with a pick between 6-10

This is the saddest option, but I’m afraid it seems quite realistic. I can’t seem to pick which one I think is more likely, but you cannot rule out this one. As I mentioned in previous articles, Craig Anderson isn’t exactly a slam dunk in net, and neither is Andrew Hammond. Anderson is old and Hammond is unproven, and Ottawa’s goaltending situation could get ugly quickly.

We forget just how bad the goaltending was in 2013-14, and Anderson was part of the problem. It could easily happen again. Their defense still isn’t that great especially without Erik Karlsson, so without another addition, that could easily fall apart like it did two years ago.

Furthermore, it’s not exactly a sure thing that all of Ottawa’s young players will progress forward instead of backwards. I have said that Mark Stone might drop his point totals a bit next year due to his high shooting percentage, and it’ll be hard to play as well as he did last year.

Others like Mika Zibanejad, Mike Hoffman, Curtis Lazar, Cody Ceci, and Jean-Gabriel Pageau may not play as well as we expect them too. Fans have some high expectations for these players, but the reality is that not everyone can produce right away and avoid regression.

Mar 8, 2015; Ottawa, Ontario, CAN; Calgary Flames cente Mikael Backlund (11) faces off against Ottawa Senators cente Mika Zibanejad (93) in the second period at the Canadian Tire Centre. Mandatory Credit: Marc DesRosiers-USA TODAY Sports

I am quite bullish on Zibanejad, but who says for certain that he will play even better than last year? Maybe how he played in 2014-15 is his full potential. I also am a big fan of Hoffman’s game, but maybe he isn’t a 30-goal scorer that we thought he could be. The Senators are relying heavily on their youngsters, which is what I wanted for the longest time.

However, that means that they could be quick risers in the standings or they could fall flat on their faces. Relying on young players doesn’t always work, and it’s certainly no guarantee. I really do like Ottawa’s youngsters but we can’t expect them to produce what we want them to.

Next: Look On The Bright Side

3. Team takes next step and finishes 2nd in the division

Jan 8, 2015; Denver, CO, USA; Ottawa Senators defenseman

Cody Ceci

(5) controls the puck in the third period against the Colorado Avalanche at the Pepsi Center. The Avalanche defeated the Senators 5-2. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

I’m not really an optimist, which is why I have this option as the least likely. I just see other teams that are better in the division like the Lightning, Red Wings, and perhaps the Canadiens, Bruins, and Panthers. At the same time, Ottawa does have some upside. They were already better than the Bruins and Panthers last year, so with some improvement they should be fine to make the playoffs.

The only big threat I see is the Lightning, who are going to be a powerhouse for a long time. But besides that, it’s not impossible to see Ottawa sneaking into 2nd…if they make big improvements. As it stands now, the team wouldn’t finish 2nd in the Atlantic.

However, if Zibanejad can turn into another first line centre along with Kyle Turris, Pageau can chip in offensively, Lazar can evolve into a more offensive minded player, Ceci can solidify the 2nd defense pairing, and Ryan can return to his 30-goal form then all of a sudden the Senators are a formidable team.

The first situation seems likely as Ottawa has been doing that for years ever since their last playoff run in 2007

That was a lot of if’s, but with young players it’s hard to not see any progress coming. I’m not sure if all of those things can happen in one season, but the possibility exists that the Senators would be a great team once again.

The organization is obviously hoping this will happen sooner rather than later, as it would mean spending less on other players like free agents. The Atlantic isn’t a weak division, but it’s not like they are up against a bunch of world-beaters.

Summary:

All in all, the first situation seems likely as Ottawa has been doing that for years ever since their last playoff run in 2007. I wouldn’t be too upset with that happening, but at the same time they will need to take the next step at some point. Scenario #2 is also very plausible, as we may be overrating the team due to their amazing stretch run. People forget that everybody was hating on the team for months until they suddenly turned it around.

We all want #3 to happen, although I just don’t see it happening. They probably won’t come close to a Stanley Cup next season anyway, but it would be a major boost if they shot up in the standings.

Next: Greatest Ottawa Senators Of All-Time: 50-41

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