How Much Money Does Mike Hoffman Deserve In Arbitration?
The annual NHL arbitration hearings are just around the corner.
While there aren’t any high profile arbitration cases this year like last year’s P.K. Subban case, there are a handful of players up for arbitration who are important pieces to their team. Mike Hoffman, the Ottawa Senators leading scorer is clearly among that group.
Arbitration is certainly nothing new for the Senators, they’ve dealt with many cases in the past, but it could be the current management group’s first big deal since Antoine Vermette filed back in 2009.
Ross at Silver Seven had a cool post taking a look at the Senators’ arbitration history. It’s a good post to understand the process and compare how previous deals have gone down. Among players that have filed in the past are Martin Havlat, Chris Neil, Chris Kelly, and Erik Condra.
Something else interesting to note is that the Senators have always managed to settle their cases before or outside of arbitration. While it could be the same case this year, it sounds as though the Senators and Hoffman are ready to butt heads at the negotiation table.
Here’s what each side has in their favour when negotiating:
So, while the Senators’ case is certainly the weaker one with few or no tangible reasons, Hoffman holds question marks. That said, his numbers were incredible. Particularly, the 1.41 G/60 stat is one that was only bettered by Minnesota’s Jason Zucker and New York’s Rick Nash in terms of players who played 50 games last year.
Hoffman holds the hammer here, he has many good reasons as to why he deserves a nice contract. In arbitration, the goal is to lead to deciding the dollar value Hoffman deserves, and the best way to do so is through a list of comparables:
| Player | Age | Goals | Points | Contract AAV |
| Mike Hoffman | 25 | 27 | 48 | Arbitration |
| Gustav Nyquist | 25 | 27 | 54 | Arbitration |
| Marian Gaborik | 33 | 27 | 47 | 4.85 |
| Mike Cammalleri | 32 | 27 | 42 | 5 |
| Anders Lee | 25 | 25 | 41 | 3.75 |
| Mikkel Boedker | 25 | 14 | 28 | 3.75 |
| Brendan Gallagher | 23 | 24 | 47 | 3.75 |
| James Neal | 27 | 23 | 37 | 5 |
| Nino Niederreiter | 22 | 24 | 37 | 2.667 |
Perhaps some of the best comparisons to be made are those of fellow players up for arbitration. The Red Wings’ Gustav Nyquist had numbers similar to Hoffman and he’ll also be up for arbitration later this July. Another good comparison is to Arizona’s Mikkel Boedker who recently settled before reaching arbitration as he took a 1-year, 3.75 million dollar deal.
Boedker has played 7 NHL seasons and will now be eligible for unrestricted free agency next summer. Hoffman is the same age, but with less NHL experience, he’s still two seasons away from UFA eligibility. That’s good news for the Senators, who would have no issue in taking a one-year deal as they’ll still retain his RFA status next year.
In predicting his contract, Boedker’s deal is a very good comparison. Boedker was injured last year, but has a better track record. The deals given to Anders Lee, Brendan Gallagher and even vets Marian Gaborik and James Neal further tell fans how Hoffman, as a rookie is deserving of a deal right in that range. The 3.75 million dollar number seems to be a popular one, but if you look at the Sens’ situation and understand the RFA deals given to Mark Stone and Mika Zibanejad, I think Hoffman settles for a little less, likely in the 3.2-3.5 range.
Predicted contract: 1-year, 3.4 million AAV
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While each side has negotiating rights, it’s Hoffman who certainly holds the biggest chip. It’s not likely to lead to any blockbuster deals as the Senators and Hoffman will likely settle on a 1-year deal, allowing Hoffman another chance to prove himself before a bigger deal.
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