A few weeks ago, it was announced that the NHL will change their overtime format for next season. Instead of having five minutes of 4 on 4 overtime, it will be 3 on 3 so fewer games will go to the shootout. I think the best system is what the AHL did this year which is having 4 minutes of 4 on 4 and then 3 minutes of 3 on 3, because you don’t want to go to such a crazy game right away.
However, the NHLPA didn’t want 7 minute overtimes, so the league had to settle. Of course most of you have heard about this news, but I haven’t heard much about how the Ottawa Senators might use their lines for 3 on 3. It’s an interesting topic, as the options are endless.
I made a few combinations that could be likely, and I took their numbers while playing together this past season to see which trio would be the strongest.
Let’s start off with the most obvious one:
Kyle Turris – Mark Stone, Erik Karlsson
A lot of numbers in this graph aren’t relevant, as all I am interested in are the stats when the three of them play together. The two most encouraging numbers are in the first row under CF% and GF%. When these three are together (at 5 on 5 play) they have 55.7% of the possession, and they scored 62.9% of the goals. Those are very impressive numbers, and that should be a very productive line in overtime.
The underlying possession numbers look very good, but they also got actual results which is a great sign.
The next trio I thought of involved two players from the second line:
Mika Zibanejad – Bobby Ryan, Erik Karlsson
I would still have Karlsson out there because he’s the best player, and having him with Mika Zibanejad and Bobby Ryan should be just as good as the first option. In 341 minutes together, these three also had very good numbers. It’s funny to see though that Karlsson is clearly in the driver’s seat, as Zibanejad and Ryan look much worse without him.
Once again, look at the CF% and GF% which are both at very solid rates.
Here is another good option involving the same forwards:
Mika Zibanejad – Bobby Ryan, Patrick Wiercioch
This trio didn’t play together as much, but they could still work very well. However, I wonder how much Wiercioch will be used in overtime. Karlsson will be relied upon a lot, but if he is too tired then I’m sure Wiercioch will be the only defenseman next in line. Realistically, only those two defenseman should be playing in overtime as there’s only five minutes to play.
Each of them should get a few shifts, and perhaps sometimes Ottawa can go with three forwards.
Which leads me to another combination…
Clarke MacArthur – Kyle Turris – Mark Stone
We all know how successful this line was during the regular season, and I don’t see why it can’t work in overtime. Of course there is no defenseman on this line, but if Karlsson is being double-shifted then this could be a choice. I wonder how other teams utilize their three spots, as I’m sure we will see lots of teams not use a defenseman for a lot of games. The Senators may be able to get away with this sometimes, as all three of these players are good defensively as well.
However, if you have the best defenseman in the game, you use him. So this combination may be rare.
You’ll notice that out of these four trios, I haven’t included Mike Hoffman. I’d love to see him in overtime though, and I think he could be a real weapon. I’m not sure who he would play with, but Mika Zibanejad and Mark Stone are available. Zibanejad and Hoffman seem to have very good chemistry, as in 547:27 minutes together they scored 60.4% of the goals.
Watch out for Mike Hoffman, who’s a sniper that would fit very well in this setting
All in all, I think Ottawa has plenty of players at their disposal in overtime. On defense, they should only be using Karlsson and Wiercioch, but Karlsson should be on the majority of the time (like he normally is). At forward, things are a bit more complicated as there six players that could be used for two spots. Ottawa doesn’t necessarily have to use Turris or Zibanejad on a line as a centre, but it might be smart.
For five minutes of extra time, there should easily be enough combinations so that the Senators are using their optimal lineup. Mark Stone has the potential to score lots more clutch overtime goals, but watch out for Mike Hoffman, who’s a sniper that would fit very well in this setting.
The good news for Ottawa is that the choices are endless. What do you think of the trios? Should there be someone else included?
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