Analyzing Previous Goalie Trades That Haven’t Worked Out
May 18, 2015; New York, NY, USA; Tampa Bay Lightning goalie
Ben Bishop(30) makes a save against the New York Rangers during the second period in game two of the Eastern Conference Final of the 2015 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports
With Andrew Hammond signed to a shiny new three-year contract, one of Craig Anderson or Robin Lehner will be on the move, and Bryan Murray has stated so already. Now for the next little while, all eyes will be on Ottawa to see which goalie they trade. Personally I would trade Anderson because he would net a larger return and he will be on the down swing of his career, while Lehner is still young.
Nevertheless, no matter which goalie is traded the Senators aren’t guaranteed to get a solid return. They are looking for a solid piece like a top six forward or top four defenseman, but I’m not sure they will get that. Looking back at previous goalie trades, it’s hard to get too excited. Goalies are the hardest players to analyze, which is why teams don’t know what to give up or receive for one.
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When the inevitable Anderson or Lehner trade comes, I’m not so sure the Senators will be too pleased with the return. There has been the odd trade where the team giving up the goalie gets a good package, but I’d say that’s a rarity. Let’s look at some previous trades that haven’t exactly worked out for the team trading a goalie:
Ottawa trades Ben Bishop to Tampa Bay for Cory Conacher and a 4th round pick (Tobias Lindberg)
You knew I had to put this one in here, right? It’s too easy, and of course all Senators fans are a bit sour about this trade. The only saving grace is that Lindberg is looking like a real good prospect, so he may save the deal a bit. However, if Bishop wins a Cup in Tampa Bay it won’t look to good for the Senators management. Hindsight is 20/20 of course, and I would have traded Bishop at the time as well.
It’s easy to critique now, but the Lightning definitely got a lot of value in this deal.
Atlanta trades Kari Lehtonen to Dallas for Ivan Vishnevskiy and a 4th round pick (Ivan Telegin)
Apr 3, 2015; Dallas, TX, USA; Dallas Stars goalie
Jhonas Enroth(1) replaces goalie Kari Lehtonen (not pictured) during the third period against the St. Louis Blues at the American Airlines Center. The Blues defeat the Stars 7-5. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
The Thrashers had an okay goalie in Lehtonen, but they traded him when he was 27 and got basically nothing for him. He’s not exactly an All-Star with Dallas, but he has been around an average goalie throughout his career. He was very bad this past season, but it was clearly a win for the Stars in this trade.
Next: Vancouver Deals Bertuzzi For A Goaltender
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Florida trades Roberto Luongo, Lukas Krajicek, and a 6th to Vancouver for Todd Bertuzzi, Alex Auld, and Bryan Allen
Mar 28, 2015; Montreal, Quebec, CAN; Florida Panthers goalie Roberto Luongo (1) before the game against Montreal Canadiens at Bell Centre. Mandatory Credit: Jean-Yves Ahern-USA TODAY Sports
While the first two trades involved goalies who weren’t totally proven, this trade was different. Luongo was a proven star goalie, and was still 27 years old at the time. The first two trades may not be comparable to a trade involving Anderson, but this one is a lot closer. However, look at the return that the Panthers got. Luongo was a star goalie and they received a backup goalie, a 3rd pairing defenseman, and a 31-year-old former first liner that was on his decline.
To be fair, Bertuzzi was coming off a 71 point season, so perhaps at the time the deal didn’t seem so bad. However, the 2005-06 season was much more high scoring than it is now, plus the most points Bertuzzi ever got in a season after that was 45. He only played 7 games in Florida as well, so the Panthers got almost no value in that trade. If they had received Bertuzzi in his mid-20’s, then it’s a different story.
Still, the Canucks lost nothing in this deal and reaped the rewards for years. The bad thing is that Anderson is older than Luongo when he was traded so a return for him may be even worse than this.
Vancouver trades Cory Schneider to New Jersey for the 9th overall pick (Bo Horvat)
Apr 7, 2015; Newark, NJ, USA; New Jersey Devils goalie Cory Schneider (35) makes a save during the first period at Prudential Center. Mandatory Credit: Ed Mulholland-USA TODAY Sports
Vancouver fans will try to defend this trade, but let’s face it: they messed up. Not even a year after trading Schneider they also traded Luongo, and then their goalie situation was a mess. Right now it’s fine, but it could be even better if they had one of the leagues best goalies. That’s right, Schneider has a career .925 % save percentage, which ranks 2nd in the entire NHL since he began his career in 2008.
He gets no recognition because he plays in New Jersey, but he’s a legitimate star in net. Bo Horvat looks like a fine 2nd/3rd line centre, and that’s good for Vancouver. They need someone like him, but don’t think for a second that he’s a good return for Schneider.
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Philadelphia trades Sergei Bobrovsky to Columbus for a 2nd round pick (Anthony Stolarz), and two 4th round picks (Taylor Leier and Justin Auger)
Apr 8, 2015; Columbus, OH, USA; Columbus Blue Jackets goalie
Sergei Bobrovsky(72) against the Toronto Maple Leafs at Nationwide Arena. The Jackets won 5-0. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports
This trade is always funny to me, because the Flyers have been looking for a goalie for years. Steve Mason has been good for them the past two years, so maybe it doesn’t hurt as much. But still, Bobrovsky has been amazing, posting a .923 % save percentage in Columbus. He showed flashes of potential in Philadelphia, but he wasn’t fantastic. But they clearly didn’t judge him well enough and they got a bad return for him.
He was only 24 when they traded him, the same age that Lehner will be later this year.
Summary
Feb 10, 2015; Buffalo, NY, USA; Ottawa Senators goalie Robin Lehner (40) during the game against the Buffalo Sabres at First Niagara Center. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports
There have certainly been many teams in history that have regretted trading their goaltender, especially if the return was less than optimal. There have also been teams like the Toronto Maple Leafs who traded their promising young goalie (Tuukka Rask) for a more proven one (Andrew Raycroft). Lehner may end up being what Rask is to the Leafs, which would be infuriating. He clearly has the potential to be very good too.
I’d say that Bobrovsky is a close comparable to Lehner though, in that both of them weren’t proven starters before they were on the trading block but they were up and comers. If that is the kind of trade that Ottawa will make to get rid of Lehner then no thanks. This has happened time and time again where a young goalie is shipped off to a new team and becomes the next big thing.
Trading young goaltenders that have potential never seems to work out
For Anderson’s case, he will get Ottawa a bigger package compared to Lehner. But I’m not so sure it will be a large return, considering Ottawa didn’t get much for their first line centre last year. Goalies simply don’t get much in trades, and the only one I can think of that worked out pretty well was Buffalo trading Ryan Miller. There aren’t many good examples of older above average goalies like Anderson getting traded besides Miller. Even with a good comparable like him, I don’t think Ottawa will get as much as Buffalo did.
There have been a few good trades made by GM’s with goalies obviously, but more often than not it’s the team receiving the goalie that gets the better end of the deal.
I would like to see Anderson be traded, but at the same time I know that whatever Ottawa gets it will probably be a bit less than I expected. I like to dream that they could trade for a young up and coming defenseman, but that probably is unrealistic. The common theme though is that trading young goaltenders that have potential never seems to work out. The Senators should know that better than anyone after giving up Bishop. Even trading more proven goaltenders won’t give your team much of a boost either it seems.