Final Analysis Of Mike Hoffman, Mark Stone, JG Pageau Projections
The Ottawa Senators had a tough loss that ended their miraculous late season run. Would the season have been different had Dave Cameron took over as coach earlier? What if Jean-Gabriel Pageau’s goal had counted against Montreal? What ifs are not going to change anything. We can look forward to what the Senators have for on the table for next year.
At the beginning of the season (LINK) I made predictions as to how three young Senators would finish points wise. My predictions in the article are fully explained as to how I came to my predicted numbers. The predictions I made were shockingly accurate. Below is a table of how the Senators players finished for statistics, below that is table of what they were projected to do based off their AHL numbers.
| Name | Games | Goals | Assists | Points |
| Hoffman | 79 | 27 | 21 | 48 |
| Stone | 80 | 26 | 38 | 64 |
| Pageau | 50 | 10 | 9 | 19 |
| Name | Games | Goals | Assists | Points |
| Hoffman | 82 | 22 | 27 | 49 |
| Stone | 82 | 15 | 26 | 41 |
| Pageau | 82 | 16 | 19 | 35 |
The predictions are based off Point Per Game averages. Mike Hoffman and Pageau were both within five percent of their predicted PPG. Mark Stone had a truly remarkable year and exceeded his prediction by thirty points. All three of the players were given more playing time and opportunity under Dave Cameron.
| Player Name | Real PPG | Predicted PPG |
| Hoffman | 0.60 | 0.59 |
| Stone | 0.80 | 0.5 |
| Pageau | 0.38 | 0.42 |
Hoffman is a remarkable talent. He lead the Senators with twenty two even strength goals, Stone placed second with eighteen.
Hoffman was an absolute force during even strength play this season. It really makes you question what Cameron was doing at times during the series against the Canadiens. Putting Hoffman on the fourth line against the Canadiens was a dumb move, one of the few Cameron made all year. One of the better and sensible moves Cameron made was playing Pageau. The Senators forward was excellent in the playoffs. Coach Cameron utilized the Senators roster far better than Paul MacLean.
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Mark Stone had an incredible season. He is nominated for Rookie Of The Year, lead all NHL players in takeaways, and generally had a remarkable season. Stone should be a force for the Senators for years to come.
This article is about more than singing the praises of Hoffman, Stone and Pageau. I believe that the data shows that you can project how a player will do based off of their AHL numbers. The data proves that you can set a realistic low end as to what a player will produce for a team. These numbers do hinge on things such as opportunity and playing time, but they do give you some sort of benchmark as to what is possible.
The perfect example of this is Mike Hoffman. He tore up the AHL, scoring tons of goals for Binghamton. This ability transitioned into the NHL. A players AHL statistics should be a decent indicator as to what they can accomplish if given opportunity in the NHL. I plan to examine some of the Binghamton Senators players in order to see who could make a decent impact in the NHL. The Senators have several great young talents on their roster which will hopefully lead to success for several years.