Will The Ottawa Senators Make The Playoffs?

After the win on Monday against the San Jose Sharks, the Ottawa Senators moved into a playoff spot with 85 points. This scenario was inconceivable a month or two ago, but now it is a reality. Not only is the team one point up on the Boston Bruins, they also have one game in hand. So with two and a half weeks to go, will Ottawa make it? And how will they do it if it does happen?

As of now, here are the standings:

While the Florida Panthers are still sort of in the playoff race, it’s doubtful Ottawa has to worry about them. After losing last night, the they sit five points back of Ottawa, but have also played one more game. They would need to essentially win all of their last nine games to make it.

The big team looking to catch up of course is Boston. The thing is, as of now Ottawa still controls their own fate. Let’s go through some scenarios of how Ottawa can make the playoffs:

If they go 10-0-0 or 9-1-0, they are guaranteed to make it. Although they have been playing extremely well, it’s unlikely this happens. Even after that though, there are some close to clinching scenarios without even having to worry about Boston. Going 8-2-0, the Bruins would need to go undefeated. Even a realistic record of 7-3-0 would mean Boston would have to go 7-1-1 or better.

Somehow, as long as the Senators don’t fall flat on their faces, they should make the playoffs

But let’s say that Ottawa doesn’t play like the last 21 games, and instead they are just average. Even then, the chances are on their side. A record of 5-5-0 wouldn’t give Ottawa much comfort, but Boston would still need to win as well with a record of 5-3-1 or better. On SportsClubStats.com, the most common result on the simulator for Ottawa’s record is 5-4-1, or 96 points. In that scenario, the Bruins need to go 6-3-0 which is certainly plausible.

In any case, in order to feel strong security about a playoff spot, Ottawa would need to get at least 7 wins out of their last 10 games. It may be a bit confusing all these scenarios, but whatever the case, the Senators do control their own destiny. It’s important that they win the next few games so even if the Bruins are playing well it won’t matter.

Hockeystats.ca uses a slightly better algorithm to determine playoff chances, and on that site it lists Ottawa’s chances at 70.1%. That site is typically a bit lower on the Senators in terms of their percentage, but even 70.1% seems like a lot. While it’s no sure thing, that must be comforting for fans to know that they are much more likely to make the playoffs than not. Here’s the amazing graph that shows the Eastern playoff chances for just 2015:

That black line that rises faster than the peak of Mount Everest is Ottawa. The amazing thing about this is the ascent began essentially a bit before March 17th, which was just a few weeks ago. Not only is Ottawa’s increase steep, Boston’s decline is just as rapid. Without the Bruins failing miserably at points, Ottawa would be given no hope. Instead, they now sit in a great position.

The rest of the way, the Senators play five at home and five away. Of those games, six of them are playoff teams, and four are not. The games against the Maple Leafs (X2), Flyers, and Panthers should be winnable, although the Panthers will be no slouch. On the other hand, the Penguins, Rangers (X2), Capitals, Lightning and Red wings will be very hard. Playing the Capitals could be important though, as Ottawa is only three points back of them for the first wild card spot with a game in hand. So Ottawa’s schedule isn’t too harsh, but it’s also not preferential.