Erik Karlsson Reaping The Rewards Of Marc Methot's Return

After last night’s disappointing loss to the Boston Bruins, I thought I should show some optimism and bring some encouraging stats to the table. One of the biggest positives from the last few months has been the resurgence of Erik Karlsson. He has played remarkably better under Dave Cameron, and I think a large part of that is due to playing with Marc Methot again. I’m not the only one that has noticed this, as Jack Leiper also touched on it a couple of weeks ago.

Since Methot returned for the second time this year, the two have played 26 games together. In those 26 games, Karlsson has 9 goals and 14 assists, and he now sits 2nd in defenseman scoring. Methot has never been an offensive defenseman, but he has shown great defensive value to the top pairing.

Karlsson is the best offensive defenseman in the game right now in my opinion, and because of that he needs to play with someone who can bail him out at times. Methot is a great partner in that sense, because at all times there will at least be one player back. While Methot may not be a superstar defender on most teams, he is a perfect complement to Karlsson.

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Furthermore, on this Ottawa team his value is magnified. The rest of the defense consists of Patrick Wiercioch, Cody Ceci, Eric Gryba, Mark Borowiecki, Jared Cowen and Chris Phillips, so of course Methot looks amazing comparatively. When he was out earlier in the year, the results weren’t pretty. Ottawa’s struggles can’t completely be blamed on Methot’s injury, but it certainly played a role.

I found some very interesting numbers via Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com:

I’ve highlighted the important numbers. If you’re not familiar with these kind of numbers, they are “with or without you” numbers. It shows players stats with a certain player and without them. Karlsson on his own has a 52.8% corsi, which is good. And Karlsson with Methot is even better, with a 56.2% corsi. 56.2% is all-star territory for a defense pairing, and that indicates they have been dominant while both of them are on the ice. It isn’t surprising really, as the eye test says the same thing.

The surprising thing is that while Methot is of course dependent on Karlsson, the opposite is true as well. Methot by himself has a 48.5% corsi, which is sub-par. But Karlsson also takes a hit to 51.1%, which is still good but it isn’t near the level it’s at when the two are together. So based on this season, it’s obvious the two of them need each other in similar ways. Nobody is going to say Karlsson is more dependent, but to elevate his game he needs to play with Methot.

The other interesting thing is how badly Chris Phillips was affecting Karlsson. Early in the year, Paul MacLean was playing Phillips on the top pairing for some reason, and the results were ugly. Even on the third pairing Phillips looks bad, but with Karlsson the problem was magnified. When the two of them played together they posted a 46.2% corsi, which is awful for any player.

The surprising thing is that while Methot is of course dependent on Karlsson, the opposite is true as well

That 46.2% number looks bad, but when Phillips was playing with anyone else, his numbers were even more awful, at 42.1%. In other words, if Phillips wasn’t playing with a franchise defenseman, he plays like an AHL call-up. But when Karlsson is freed from the shackles of Phillips, he owns a 54.9% corsi. The two played for over 300 minutes together this season, so it’s pretty easy to see how Karlsson could be playing even better for the entire year.

The jump from Phillips to Methot looks enormous, and I’m sure Karlsson is extremely happy to have his old partner back. Having to play with third pairing or replacement level defenseman hurt Karlsson early on in the season, and it was easy to see why he wasn’t completely his old self. However, with the return of Methot I think he’s back to his old Norris-self, and perhaps even better.

Does that mean he will get Norris recognition? Probably not. He’ll get votes, but I don’t think he’ll even get a nomination whether deserving or not. Still though, he’s a franchise player and oddly enough it’s Methot that makes him elevate his game.

And even though Methot is a solid defenseman, a different and better partner for Karlsson could theoretically make him even better. Here’s Methot’s HERO chart:

The numbers indicate that he’s a fringe top pairing defenseman, but a solid top four player, which is what most people seem to think. He can certainly hold his own on defense, and is Ottawa’s second best defenseman. But it would also be crazy to think about acquiring a better defenseman to play on the top pairing. This is Karlsson’s HERO chart. How could it really get much better?

He’s a world-class player, and there isn’t a whole lot of room for improvement. Nevertheless, it would be amazing to think about another All-Star player alongside him.

Since December, two things have helped Karlsson greatly: firing MacLean and hiring Dave Cameron, and getting Methot back in the lineup. Those two things have brought his game back up to where it should be, and we’re damn lucky to have him.

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