Ottawa Senators’ Defensive LogJam, What To Do?
DEFENSIVE JAMS
Silver Seven Sens has had a great series running entitled “spare parts” and really, I don’t think there is a phrase more fitting to describe the Ottawa Senators’ situation.
The series started over on Silver Seven has narrowed in on specific players like David Legwand and Milan Michalek, but has also gone more broad. Ary M’s most recent piece looks at the defensive situation in Ottawa, where it is clear the team carries a few too many “spare parts”.
In carrying 8 d-men, Ottawa has four “top 4” defenders and 4 “other” defenders. The other ones being Mark Borowiecki (who Don Brennan seems to be a fan of) Patrick Wiercioch (who numbers guys are a fan of see: @MimicoHero ‘s tweet), Eric Gryba, and Chris Phillips. This also assuming we call Jared Cowen a top 4 guy, considering that is where he is slotted most nights.
While the potential is still there for Patrick Wiercioch to progress beyond a bottom pairing guy, I think you can look at the styles of play from Borowiecki and Gryba and assume they’re not moving up. So, someone needs to be moved.
WHO GETS MOVED?
If a potential move were to occur, you’d have to think it would be in the off-season. At this point if any defender is most likely to get moved, it’s our 2nd best one in Marc Methot, where a big hit would be felt among the “top 4”
Chris Phillips has been discussed as a potential trade piece, but is likely to stay put.
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The piece up on Silver Seven goes in depth on each of the players. There’s some really interesting usage talk about Eric Gryba, who has regressed, among others. Jared Cowen is named as a potential trade piece there, but considering his presence in the organization and being a former top 10 pick that doesn’t hold a lot of value, the conversation is not likely being had.
Mark Borowiecki is a guy, who despite putting up quite a few penalties has seemed to play solid for this team. We don’t see any glaring defensive mistakes, he makes a reliable first pass and has proved to be valuable. Not to mention, his contract is very favourable for the Senators at around a $1 000 000 AAV for the next 4 seasons.
Don Brennan had a piece up the other day discussing Boro. With an interesting tidbit I didn’t know, that being that Chris Phillips played wing early on in his career.. so why can’t Boro? It’s something that should be discussed, as Don Brennan claims that “Mark Borowiecki should never be a healthy scratch”
.. and maybe there’s some value to that statement
WIERCIOCH and GRYBA
So, with Borowiecki and Phillips ruled out as potential pieces on the go, you’ve got to look towards Wiercioch and Gryba. Those two seem to play opposite styles for the Senators, and diving into advanced stats tells us this.
Gryba has made some smart plays this season, he’s a strong kid with average skating ability and would be a solid piece on any teams bottom pair. That said, it’s clear that Gryba is playing the “harder” minutes than Wiercioch and in turn, hasn’t been great when it comes to Corsi stats.
Ary’s piece on silver seven goes further in depth, so I recommend the read. But looking at some OZS% vs Corsi production, we see how Wiercioch and Gryba play different roles.
As you see here, Wiercioch and Gryba are sort of on different ends of the situation. While Wiercioch starts in the offensive zone over 54% of the time, we see he has been generating far more than anyone at 5v5.
Gryba on the other hand, has played some tougher minutes. The toughest on the team to be exact as he holds the lowest 5v5 OZS%, while his Corsi is also near the team’s low. And then there is Chris Phillips.
So, Ideally the league’s elite would be playing hard minutes and suceeding, somewhere around the Karlsson bubble would be ideal.
Wiercioch and Gryba have held their own spots and have mostly succeeded, but considering Wiercioch’s easier minutes and Gryba’s negative possession; they both find themselves in weird spots.
WRAP-UP
Wiercioch is interesting. He’s certainly regressed in terms of hopes offensively, but has continued to impress when looking at Corsi statistics, given his usage. Gryba on the other hand has played harder minutes and has been negative in terms of Corsi production. So, that said, each player finds themselves in an interesting spot.
So, if I’m Bryan Murray, I am moving one of these pieces, and it’s ideally apart of a package. Wiercioch and Gryba make the most sense as trade pieces, and despite Borowiecki and Phillips being the two I’d rather move out, it doesn’t make sense given their situations.