Revisiting Old Predictions At The Half-Way Mark

Back in September, I wrote a fanpost on Silver Seven Sens giving my standings predictions for this season. Of course I wasn’t part of the Senshot writing team yet, so that was one place where I could interact with Senators fans. I love giving my predictions all the time, and it’s even more fun to look back on them and see how far off you were. Almost always there are a few teams that get misjudged completely but that’s expected with everyone.

You can read the full post here, but I will also go through each division below (actual position in parentheses):

Atlantic:

1. Tampa Bay Lightning (1)

2. Boston Bruins (4)

3. Montreal Canadiens (2)

4. Ottawa Senators* (Wildcard) (7)

5. Detroit Red Wings (3)

6. Toronto Maple Leafs (6)

7. Florida Panthers (5)

8. Buffalo Sabres (8)

Total spots off: 10

So I got 3/8 exactly correct, which isn’t too bad. I thought that this would be the year somebody besides Boston wins the division, and the Lightning have looked like a contender since day one. I feel good about that prediction looking back on it. I missed the mark on Ottawa obviously, and perhaps my homerism played a part in that. I underestimated Detroit and Florida a bit, because as of now both of them have great chances to make the playoffs.

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Metropolitan:

1. Pittsburgh Penguins (2)

2. Columbus Blue Jackets (5)

3. New York Islanders (1)

4. New York Rangers* (Wildcard) (3)

5. Philadelphia Flyers (6)

6. New Jersey Devils (7)

7. Washington Capitals (4)

8. Carolina Hurricanes (8)

Total spots off: 12

For the Atlantic I only got 1/8 exact, but looking further at it I wasn’t too far off. I knew the Islanders would be much better, but I didn’t expect them to be in first. The Blue Jackets were ravaged by injuries earlier on,  but they’ve been slowly climbing the ladder. It’s still unlikely they make the playoffs though, and their prediction was a tad ambitious.

Besides Columbus and the Washington Capitals, I was very close on the other teams. I was only one spot off for Pittsburgh, New York Rangers, Philadelphia, and New Jersey. I still think I did a fairly good job for this division, considering how open it looked at the beginning of the year.

Central:

1. Chicago Blackhawks (2)

2. St. Louis Blues (3)

3. Dallas Stars (6)

4. Minnesota Wild* (Wildcard) (7)

5. Colorado Avalanche (5)

6. Nashville Predators (1)

7. Winnipeg Jets (4)

Total spots off: 16

I definitely did not see Nashville being such a powerhouse this season

This division was by far my worst. I did get the Avalanche right, but I overestimated Dallas and Minnesota, and underestimated Nashville and Winnipeg by a lot. Most people would have put Chicago and St. Louis in the top 2-3, which wasn’t a hard prediction to make. Coming into the season, Dallas and Minnesota looked like teams ready to take that next step as they both made some good moves.

However, it has not worked for either of them so far, but there is a bit of time to salvage the season. I definitely did not see Nashville being such a powerhouse this season, but the emergence of Filip Forsberg, the return of Pekka Rinne, and an amazing defense makes them a contender.

The same thing goes for Winnipeg, as Ondrej Pavelec still is not a good goaltender. But “backup” Michael Hutchison has been great for them, and despite a load of injuries on the defense they have held their own this year.

Pacific:

1. Los Angeles Kings (4)

2. Anaheim Ducks (1)

3. San Jose Sharks (3)

4. Edmonton Oilers* (Wildcard) (7)

5. Vancouver Canucks (2)

6. Arizona Coyotes (6)

7. Calgary Flames (5)

Total spots off: 12

I got two teams right in this division, and I made two crucial errors. I thought that maybe, just maybe this is the year Edmonton finally makes the playoffs. Every year there are a few surprise teams, and you would think after all this time the Oilers would make it one of these years. Instead, they look like the same team that has missed the playoffs every year since 2006.

I also wasn’t that confident in the Vancouver Canucks, however they have played beyond their expectations. I still expect one or two of San Jose/Los Angeles to pass them, but they should be good for a wildcard spot at least. The Calgary Flames are still in the playoff hunt despite having awful possession numbers, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see them drop a bit.

Nov 13, 2013; Edmonton, Alberta, CAN; Edmonton Oilers forwards

(14),

(4) and

(93) speak at the bench during a stoppage in play at Rexall Place. Mandatory Credit: Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports

All in all, I only predicted 6 teams in their exact spot, however there is still another half of the season for things to change. While 6 doesn’t seem like much, there were a lot of teams that were only one spot off of their actual position. Personally, I think I didn’t do too bad of a job, but it could have been better.

Some of the teams I put much too high include: Ottawa, Columbus, Dallas, Minnesota, Los Angeles, and Edmonton. The teams I put too low include: Washington, Nashville, Winnipeg, and Vancouver. So that means essentially two-thirds of the league I was pretty close in a prediction (within 2 spots).

My best division was the Atlantic, and the worst was by far the Central. It’s surprising because before the season the East looked much more wide open and harder to predict. However, the emergence and downfall of certain teams made things look much different from I thought it would be.

It’ll be interesting to see if there are any major changes at the end of the season when I look back.