After last night’s shootout loss to the Philadelphia Flyers, the Ottawa Senators sit at a record of 16-15-8. They’ve lost two straight games after a triumphant defeat in Boston, and they are still five points back of the final playoff spot, with the Boston Bruins and Florida Panthers ahead of them as well. While their record shows that they are an average team, there are some concerning things to realize.
Typically when people reference the “.500” mark in the NHL, they mean wins and losses excluding overtime and shootout losses. So by this technicality, Ottawa is actually above .500, with 16 wins and 15 losses. However other sports like baseball, basketball and football don’t count overtime losses as “half” a win, therefore their records are much more indicative of the teams play. For example, if Ottawa played under rules from the MLB, they would be 16-23, because overtime losses would count the same as regulation losses.
Other sports measure the .500 mark much better, and to say that a team like Ottawa is above that line is ridiculous. To show how badly the NHL skews teams results, look at these numbers: last year in the MLB, the top team (LA Angels) had a winning percentage of .605. That percentage looks awfully low when compared to the NHL’s top team the Nashville Predators who have a percentage of .715.
Furthermore, according to the NHL’s standards, 23 teams are above .500, and one is right on the mark. So saying that you are above that threshold isn’t really saying much considering only six teams are below it. Ottawa’s record of 16-15-8 is certainly not above average, and saying otherwise is skewing the picture.
Obviously then, just by looking at Ottawa’s record, it doesn’t look great despite their .513 winning percentage. However, even in their wins they haven’t been overpowering the opponent. Take a look at this stat from Travis Yost:
Sens have four regulation wins in the last two months. That feels bad.
— Travis Yost (@travisyost) January 7, 2015
The Senators have been relying on overtime and the shootout to get wins, and even in regulation they have mostly been one goal games. Ottawa has gone to extra time 14 times this season, losing in overtime/shootout eight times, winning in a shootout three times, and in overtime three times. Only ten of their 16 wins have come in regulation, and three of those were one goal games. That means 36% of their games are going to extra time, and Ottawa is either winning in very close games that could go either way or losing.
It’s clear that the team has not playing dominant hockey, and it isn’t getting any better. The possession numbers have been better since Dave Cameron took over, but not great either. In the first five weeks of the season, Ottawa had six regulation wins, but since then they have only four.
Basically it seems like every game plan now is trying to survive the game and get to overtime. Considering the Senators historical lack of success in the extra frame, that looks like a poor plan. The team is still on the negative side possession-wise, sitting 26th in corsi.
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If the Senators have to keep relying on overtime and close games the rest of the way, it won’t be pretty. Their record is not good right now, and it looks like in the future they won’t be too successful either. Certainly it’s a big problem that they cannot win in regulation, and it needs to be addressed.
Last year the same thing happened to the Toronto Maple Leafs where they only won in overtime and the shootout, and they collapsed at the end of the year which seemed inevitable. Ottawa has nowhere to collapse from really, but their playoff hopes may slowly fade if this trend continues. There were a few great games for Ottawa like ones against Anaheim and Buffalo, but those are only two games over a two month span.
It’ll be interesting to see their results in the next month and see if they can win more games in regulation or if they stumble even further.