Colin Greening Is Ottawa’s Best Analytics Player, By Far
Take a look at Colin Greening‘s stat-line this season, and you won’t be impressed. 16 games played, 1 goal, and no assists. These certainly aren’t numbers of a guy you pay 2.65 million dollars a season.
Oh, and about that one goal. The way he scored it was rather remarkable, to put it nicely.
Greening’s numbers certainly aren’t ones to be proud of. But what we can pull from Analytical stats and things like Corsi, tell us that Colin Greening must be doing something right.
Looking at the Senators as a whole, Corsi hasn’t been pretty. Ottawa is 24th in the league in terms of CF%, this due to a 48.5%. And it appears to be a balance of poor offence and poor defence. In terms of raw CF and CA, Ottawa’s CA numbers are actually better when comparing with the rest of the NHL index. Ottawa sits 19th in raw Corsi Against, and 22nd in Corsi for. Again, not numbers to be proud of.
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Then there is Colin Greening, Ottawa’s best Corsi player at 5v5. At the 16 game mark for Greening, he sits comfortably with a CF% of 56.0. When looking into the percentage, it’s actually his CF and CA working together that make him the +Corsi player he is.
Greening’s CF60 is again a team best. At 65.11, Greening generates more Corsi than any other Senator when he’s on the ice. To be exact, that’s over 6 Corsi more/60 than the next closest Senator forward, Mike Hoffman. And Greening has been no slouch in terms of Corsi Against either. He has averaged a CA60 of 51.19 while he’s been on the ice, good for a team 3rd best.
In terms of ICorsi/60 Greening has impressed there as well. Considering he’s mainly played on a line with David Legwand and Erik Condra, we see that Greening has been good on his own. Greening is 2nd on the team in ICorsi/60, where only Mike Hoffman has been better.
What emphasizes this further is Greening’s OZ%, Greening only starts in the offensive zone 38.5% of the time. Only 2 Senators have less offenzive zone starts, where Greening is the only one to put up +Corsi numbers.
Apr 2, 2013; Boston, MA, USA; Ottawa Senators left wing Colin Greening (14) is congratulated by center
Zack Smith(15) after a goal during the first period against the Boston Bruins at TD Banknorth Garden. Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports
What’s Next?
It’s clear Greening has to be better to live up to his 2.65 million, but if what we can pull from hockey analytics is true, Greening may be due at some point.
I’m not sure what to expect from Greening at this point. He’s a big strong guy who has shown he can skate. I think there is still value of having a guy like that around. Let’s not forget Greening scored nearly 20 goals on Jason Spezza‘s wing a few seasons ago. Then again, Milan Michalek scored 35 and I don’t see much from him anymore.
So, in discussing Colin Greening; it’s quite the possibility that he’s done in Ottawa. It’s been rumoured that Ottawa has looked at moving the contract for quite some time and hasn’t found a dance partner yet.
Greening could be had for a cheap price, potentially with a small amount of salary retained. And in that case, he could be a good bottom 6 forward for any team in the league, just like he’s been in Ottawa.