Revisiting Old Predictions For The Final Time
In September before I was at SenShot, I wrote a fanpost at Silver Seven Sens, giving my predictions for the standings this season. Then in January, I revisited those predictions, and of course there many wrong predictions. Now that the regular season is over, I wanted to take a final look back and see how I actually did, and if there was any improvement.
I’ll go through each division in order of each spot I predicted the teams in, with their actual spot in parentheses.
ATLANTIC:
1. TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING (2)
2. BOSTON BRUINS (5)
3. MONTREAL CANADIENS (1)
4. OTTAWA SENATORS* (Wildcard) (4)
5. DETROIT RED WINGS (3)
6. TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS (7)
7. FLORIDA PANTHERS (6)
8. BUFFALO SABRES (8)
Total Spots Off: 10
Spots Off at Half-way Mark: 10
There wasn’t much change since January, except for Ottawa who jumped from 7th to 4th. This was easily the best division for my predictions, and the only real miss I had was Boston in the 2nd spot. To be fair, it would have been incredibly gutsy to say they would miss the playoffs in September. The Lightning still look like the best team in the division on paper, and I thought for sure they would best Montreal.
Out of all the divisions, this seems like the most predictable, but it was still hard being exactly correct as I was perfect for only two teams.
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METROPOLITAN:
1. PITTSBURGH PENGUINS (4)
2. COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS (5)
3. NEW YORK ISLANDERS (3)
4. NEW YORK RANGERS* (Wildcard) (1)
5. PHILADELPHIA FLYERS (6)
6. NEW JERSEY DEVILS (7)
7. WASHINGTON CAPITALS (2)
8. CAROLINA HURRICANES (8)
Total Spots Off: 16
Spots Off at Half-way Mark: 12
This was a tough division to predict, as there was a lot of possible movement between lots of the teams. The Penguins seemed like the only sure thing, yet they faltered near the end and only finished 4th. The Blue Jackets may have been an aggressive pick, but they were hampered by injuries early on, and ended the year with 89 points thanks to an incredible hot streak. They weren’t that far off from being a good team, and perhaps next year they will be back where they were in 2014.
I did not think the Rangers would stay where they are, as I felt like they would take a step back after making the Finals last year. I clearly missed on them, and I also had a major whiff on the Capitals, because looking back I can’t see why I put them in 7th. Now I think they have a good chance to go even deeper in the playoffs, mostly because they have two stars in Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom, but also a hot goalie in Braden Holtby and an emerging John Carlson.
I was able to only predict two perfectly just like the Atlantic, getting the Hurricanes in 8th and the Islanders in 3rd. I doubt next year will be any easier for predictions in the Metro.
I also heavily believed in the Dallas Stars, but they were hampered by poor goaltending all year
CENTRAL:
1. CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS (3)
2. ST. LOUIS BLUES (1)
3. DALLAS STARS (6)
4. MINNESOTA WILD* (Wildcard) (4)
5. COLORADO AVALANCHE (7)
6. NASHVILLE PREDATORS (2)
7. WINNIPEG JETS (5)
Total Spots Off: 14
Spots Off at Half-way Mark: 16
This division was my second best as I had a slight improvement since the half-way mark, although I was still well off in a few spots. I severely miscalculated how good the Nashville Predators would be, as they ended up getting home ice advantage in the playoffs. I also heavily believed in the Dallas Stars, but they were hampered by poor goaltending all year.
Even though I only missed on the Jets by two spots, that was quite the miss as well. They were 5th, but they grabbed the 2nd wildcard spot, and I did not think that would be possible. They are a good team now, but their achilles heel will always be their goaltending. Ondrej Pavelec had a good season, but he’s not a good goalie and there’s years of evidence to suggest this.
I had only the Minnesota Wild exactly correct, and I think next year there will still be lots of movement in the division.
Apr 22, 2015; Winnipeg, Manitoba, CAN; Winnipeg Jets goalie Ondrej Pavelec (31) makes a save against the Anaheim Ducks during the first period in game four of the first round of the 2015 Stanley Cup Playoffs at MTS Centre. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Fedyck-USA TODAY Sports
PACIFIC:
1. LOS ANGELES KINGS (4)
2.ANAHEIM DUCKS (1)
3. SAN JOSE SHARKS (5)
4. EDMONTON OILERS* (Wildcard) (6)
5. VANCOUVER CANUCKS (2)
6. ARIZONA COYOTES (7)
7. CALGARY FLAMES (3)
Total Spots Off: 16
Spots Off at Half-way Mark: 12
Although technically this was tied for my worst division with the Metropolitan, it looks so much worse. Three of the four teams I had to make the playoffs didn’t even make it, with my Oilers pick looking awfully bad. The Kings and Sharks missing were quite shocking, and the Flames finishing any higher than 5th is just incredible.
The main reason I made the Edmonton pick was because I thought they have to make it at some point, right? Well maybe next season when they have Connor McDavid…? Either way, whoever correctly predicts the Oilers to make the playoffs will look like a genius. The problem is, when they fall flat on their face you realize that they are in fact, the Oilers.
The only teams I were close on were the Ducks and the Coyotes, but even for them I was one spot off. Maybe next time I’ll get it.
SUMMARY:
So overall, my predictions look worse at the end of the season than they did at the half-way mark, which isn’t the greatest look on me. Some of these picks I think to myself “what was I thinking?” But hindsight is always 20/20, and I don’t think many people had teams like the Kings, Sharks, or Bruins missing the playoffs, or the Flames making it. So there were some bad predictions, but also a lot of this was completely unforeseen. It has been a weird season.
Normally I’ve been better with predictions, but this year not so much. Maybe it’s because there’s more and more parity across the league, and it really is a crapshoot. Next year I’ll be better!