Being Realistic For The Ottawa Senators
Tomorrow night, the Ottawa Senators will begin the unofficial “second half” of the season, and they will have 36 more games to play. It’s been a week since their last game against the Toronto Maple Leafs, and I think all fans are thankful some hockey is back. Their record of 19-18-9 doesn’t look awful, but looking at the standings things look pretty bleak.
I have gone into this topic many times before, but I feel it’s necessary to talk about realistic expectations the rest of the season, and what we can look forward to. At this point in the season, more and more sellers are beginning to emerge, especially this year.
Looking at the standings, there isn’t much room for movement, at least in terms of teams going from out of the playoffs to in and vice versa. In the West, it’s a bit more open as there are perhaps three teams (Los Angeles, Colorado and Dallas) that still have a shot at making it. However, the only team I think will actually make it is Los Angeles, because there’s no way that the Calgary Flames will make it over the Kings.
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But in the East, things are much more locked. The Washington Capitals and Boston Bruins are tied in the Wildcard position with 57 points, but the next closest team in 9th is the Florida Panthers with 50 points. They do have three games in hand, but I can’t see them making it over the Bruins either. Then after that there’s the Senators who have 47 points and two games in hand on the Bruins.
To me, it looks pretty simple. I don’t see any scenario where Ottawa gets more than 10 points better than Boston over the next 36 games. Right now the Bruins are on pace for 97 points, and for Ottawa to get there they need to go 23-9-4. Even then, it’s still no guarantee (79.7%) that they will be in the playoffs.
And if they do make the playoffs, what is the big deal? Sure, if you’re Eugene Melnyk it means at least two more games of revenue. But if Ottawa somehow did make it that far, they would be facing off against most likely one of the Tampa Bay Lightning, New York Islanders or Pittsburgh Penguins. The Islanders may seem like a favourable matchup, but make no mistake, that is a hell of a good team.
I don’t see how they would advance any further than the first round. “Anything can happen” is always the mantra, but that seems very naive. While the playoffs don’t seem attainable, I doubt this team will completely tank. The bottom four teams (Buffalo, Edmonton, Carolina, and Arizona) seem set in stone, and Ottawa won’t be approaching that territory.
The playoffs are essentially out of reach, and a lottery pick is as well, so the Senators are in the infamous “no-mans land.”
There’s still a chance that teams like Toronto, Philadelphia, Columbus and maybe New Jersey pass Ottawa, but I can only imagine one or two of those happening at best. As of now Ottawa would be drafting 9th overall, which is a solid position, and I wouldn’t expect them to get too much higher of a pick. There are still good players on the team, and in no way does anyone in the organization want to tank (even if it means a better shot at a star player).
The playoffs are essentially out of reach, and a lottery pick is as well, so the Senators are in the infamous “no-mans land.” It isn’t an ideal place to be, but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t watch or follow the team the rest of the way. They still may make a bit of a push here, as they have a good top six with entertaining young players to at least make things interesting.
As the season heads down the final stretch a few things I will be keeping an eye on include: Erik Karlsson returning back to form, Mike Hoffman‘s push for 30 goals, Robin Lehner attempting to get his game back, the search for Bryan Murray’s replacement, and Marc Methot‘s contract situation. It certainly won’t be a dull period from now until the end of the summer, as there are intriguing storylines on and off the ice.
The rest of the season I don’t expect much from the team in terms of production, but I doubt there will be nothing to talk about. While the playoffs may not be an option this year, it doesn’t mean improvements (and a high draft pick) can’t make them better suited for next year.