The Ottawa Senators will kick off their first-round series against the Carolina Hurricanes on Saturday afternoon. Ottawa fans will be looking forward to their club pulling off one of the most stunning upsets in recent history.
But if you ask oddsmakers, they’re not really sold on the Senators making a dent in the 2026 Stanley Cup playoffs.
According to a recent survey by casino.org, the Senators have less than a 5% chance of going all the way to the Stanley Cup Final. The data surveyed across multiple oddsmaking sites and sportsbooks showed Ottawa getting a 4.9% chance of going all the way.
Those odds are slightly lower than the Edmonton Oilers, who came in at 6.91%. Meanwhile, the Montreal Canadiens got the lowest odds among Canadian teams in the NHL playoffs, racking up a 3.49% chance.
It’s worth pointing out that there really isn’t a foolproof method for determining odds. Despite the use of algorithms and considering multiple data points, there’s always the chance that a team can prove everyone wrong.
And that’s what the Senators are hoping to achieve. Ottawa will be looking to knock off the Eastern Conference’s top seed. While it won’t be an easy task, if there’s a team this season that can pull off that sort of an upset, it’s the Senators.
Senators' similar playing style to Hurricanes could be propitious for upset
Interestingly, the Senators and Hurricanes play a similar style. Both clubs rely on a hard-hitting, tight-checking flow. That style forces turnovers and generates chances for defensemen to hit open forwards.
Because of that similarity, the Senators are, interestingly enough, the most appropriate team to face the Hurricanes this season.
That’s why the Senators’ chances of winning their first-round series could come down to players like Brady Tkachuk, Drake Batherson, and Tim Stutzle taking advantage of scoring opportunities. Also, Jake Sanderson could be a wild card throughout the series. While there’s no denying Sanderson’s skill level, the Hurricanes will be looking to limit the damage he can inflict.
All told, the Senators have far too many weapons for the Hurricanes to focus on a single one. Fans should expect a low-scoring series that could come down to one side exploiting the mistakes of the other.
That’s why oddsmakers may end up hanging their heads if the Senators can pull off this postseason’s most stunning upset.
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