As the offseason rolls on and the draft and free agency inch closer, there is always a period when pundits begin to ponder the possibility of an offer sheet. This offseason, there are several notable RFAs, such as Jason Robertson, Connor Bedard, and Leo Carlsson, who jump off the page, but one in particular could make a lot of sense for the Ottawa Senators: Vegas Golden Knights forward Pavel Dorofeyev.
Dorofeyev is coming off back-to-back 35-plus-goal seasons and is due for a pay raise after posting a career-high 64 points. Those point totals aren't astronomical, but the goal scoring is exactly what Ottawa would be paying him for.
Vegas' cap situation this coming offseason is going to present some challenges. As it stands, the Golden Knights have 10 pending free agents, including two restricted free agents. Vegas made a big splash by acquiring right-shot defenceman Rasmus Andersson, and they will need to pay up if they want to keep him. With the free-agent market for right-shot defencemen being quite thin, Andersson may look to cash in on a significant raise. To sign even half of their free agents, including Dorofeyev and Andersson, Vegas would need to move out some serious money.
This is where the Senators come in. They have the cap space available to offer Dorofeyev a fair-market-value contract and a real need for a goal-scoring winger like him. As has been mentioned numerous times since the Senators' season ended, the team needs a top-six winger to play alongside centre Tim Stützle. The scoring Dorofeyev would bring could help propel Ottawa to another level of contention.
With that said, what would a contract for Dorofeyev look like? According to AFP Analytics, a long-term deal for him would be six years at $8.9 million per season. A short-term deal would be two years at $6.2 milion annually. If you're Ottawa, offering him a nice, round $9 million per season would be around what he could be worth.
Obviously, the player would need to accept the contract offer, and in this hypothetical, he has. Vegas would then have seven days to either match the offer or accept the draft-pick compensation. If Vegas chose not to match, the compensation for a $9 million contract would be a first, second, and third-round pick in the 2027 draft.
Considering that Brayden Schenn was traded for a roster player, a first-round pick, a top goaltending prospect, and a third-round pick, the compensation required for a better player is a price worth paying if you're Ottawa.
The Senators' top six forwards would go from lacking elite goal-scoring talent to featuring three 30-goal scorers from last season. With a healthy Brady Tkachuk next season and goaltender Linus Ullmark returning to form, the Senators would suddenly become a much more formidable opponent without needing to ship out roster players or top prospects.
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