The Ottawa Senators have started their new season 6-3-0, one of the best starts for the franchise in its history; however, something feels a bit off. Obviously, a team is going to suffer when it’s missing its top pair for the majority of games, and Jake Sanderson’s absence in particular has been noticeable. But it feels like more than that; it feels like the team’s overall game has regressed, despite having a better roster than it did last year.
Have they looked as good?
Now, context obviously matters, and as mentioned prior, not having Artem Zub and Sanderson to start the season and losing William Eklund four games in have thrown a wrench into the Senators’ plans. Eklund’s impact in his first three games can’t be overstated either. According to Moneypuck, his expected goals per 60 minutes in those four games is still the highest of any player in the league at 2.87. He was ready to take the next step with his production, he was driving play, and he gave the 2nd line much-needed offense. Losing him hurts the offense incredibly and also hurts Ottawa’s overall puck possession.
The fact of the matter is that Ottawa’s advanced stats show a different story from its 6-3 record. The biggest is that the Sens are well below average in suppressing high-danger chances against, allowing 75 so far this season, while the team has only 48 high-danger chances for. They also aren’t controlling the puck nearly as much as they were last season. Last season, the Senators had a 53.3% CorsiFor, which means they controlled the puck more than their opponents. This season, the Senators currently have a 44.8% CorsiFor, which helps us understand that the Senators haven’t controlled play in many games this season.
Finally, Moneypuck does a great job of tracking analytics and has a “deserve to win o-meter" that runs simulations of the game and all of its data. So far this season, the Senators have ‘deserved to win’ five of their nine games (one of which was their most recent loss), with two games being almost a coin toss. Ottawa hasn’t been able to dominate at the level it did last season, and luckily it hasn’t had to matter as much because Linus Ullmark has been incredible. Ullmark currently owns the 3rd-best statistics in the NHL, with a 1.33 GAA and .945 SV%, is 1st in wins, and has sparkling analytics as well.
This is where the eye test is important too. It’s clear the Senators haven’t been the better team in the majority of their games, which was the opposite of the case last season. This being the case, missing Sanderson is no surprise, and they’ve been able to win games without him, but analytically and eye-test speaking, he’s one of their three most important players. His puck possession and puck movement stabilize the team not only defensively but also offensively. With him back in the lineup, the team should see a pretty serious uptick in offensive chances while starting to reduce how much the opposing team has the puck.
The team has a cast of players auditioning for a top-six role who just have not been able to produce, with players like Warren Foegele, Ridly Grieg, Fabian Zetterlund, and Andre Burakovsky all unable to fit. That may just be a case of a round peg in a square hole. At least some of those players have put up points, but Burakovsky has yet to produce a point this season. With Eklund out, the Senators’ top six has three legitimate top-six players in Tim Stützle, Drake Batherson, and Dylan Cozens, and Cozens himself is struggling. If the Senators are to take that next step, bargain-bin hunting for a top-six player isn’t a good strategy for creating offence.
Overall, the team is in a great spot, sitting 3rd in the Atlantic Division with some major injuries affecting its roster. But this team also may have lost Thomas Chabot Saturday night to injury, so just because it’s getting Sanderson back doesn’t mean it’s in the clear on injuries. If this team, once healthy, still struggles to create offence and improve puck possession, it may have no choice but to add someone who can help. However, getting Sanderson back will give the Senators a real injection on both ends of the puck and will be a much better indicator of where the team is at.
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