On paper, there isn't much for Ottawa Senators fans to celebrate about their first-round playoff series against the Carolina Hurricanes. The Senators were swept in four games, making it the second straight season that their season ended in the first round. A few weeks later, the franchise was forced to navigate the emotional fallout of trading captain Brady Tkachuk. From the outside, it has been an offseason defined more by disappointment than optimism.
But what if that four-game sweep didn't tell the whole story?
During the latest episode of the 32 Thoughts podcast, Sportsnet's insider Elliotte Friedman shared an interesting perspective after speaking with people around the Stanley Cup champion Hurricanes. Friedman suggested that if Carolina were asked to honestly rank its toughest playoff opponents from this year's postseason, Ottawa would finish no worse than second despite failing to win a game.
That might just sound like cheap banter at this point, but considering the Hurricanes also faced the Philadelphia Flyers, Montreal Canadiens and Vegas Golden Knights on their way to lifting the Stanley Cup, it should read more as something for the Sens to build upon going into 2026-27. More importantly, it reinforces something the underlying numbers hinted at back in April: Ottawa was far more competitive than a 4-0 series loss would suggest.
While the Hurricanes ultimately controlled the only statistic that truly matters, the wins and secondly the goals, the Senators consistently pushed play at five-on-five. Expected goals, scoring chance generation and physical tracking data painted the picture of a young team that was much closer to breaking through than the final scores indicated. Against the NHL's eventual champions, Ottawa wasn't overwhelmed nearly as often as the series result might lead fans to believe.
Where does this leave the Senators as they head into the next season?
This information shouldn't come as a surprise to the front office. They've had the data all along, but it's how they use it that will benefit them in the long run. All those statistics point to the Sens just running into a juggernaught and a goaltender that was playing at the top of his game. Frederik Andersen stopped 105 of 110 shots for a .955 save percentage. If there's one flaw it may have been that the Senators should have shot more, averaging 27.5 shots per game in the series.
The Senators are navigating a difficult offseason. They've moved on from Tkachuk but there's a large segment of the fan base that may say "good riddance." Sure, he was the captain and has been a consistent producer during the regular season, but since he was drafted ahead of the 2018-19 season, the Sens have made it to the playoffs just twice, and he's posted seven points in their ten playoff games.
The Sens don't have a ton of cap space to work with, but they did bring back Claude Giroux on a relatively team friendly deal. Added to that, the prospects they've picked up through the draft and the players they've brought in thanks to the Tkachuk trade and all of a sudden things don't seem that bleak for the Sens. They've got the data to support that line of thinking, now they just have to use it.
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