With the 4th overall draft in the 2018 NHL Draft, the Ottawa Senators selected Brady Tkachuk
Brady Tkachuk is in his 5th NHL season, all with the Ottawa Senators. Given the Tkachuk Rivalry is set to awaken tonight, I figured it was appropriate to compare the Tkachuk Brothers.
As the Ottawa Senators’ rebuild was underway, their first-round draft pick was up in the air.
After the Senators’ Eastern Conference Finals run in 2017, General Manager Pierre Dorion decided to invest in a legitimate First Line Center, acquiring Matt Duchene. While I won’t dive too much into the exactitudes of the trade in itself, it is important to highlight that the Senators’ 2018 first-round pick was part of the deal. Fortunately for the Sens, Dorion was able to ensure that the pick was top-ten protected. Long story short, the Sens would gain the 4th overall pick in 2018, and opted to use that protection for the pick to slide in 2019, and the Ottawa Senators would select from the Boston Youth Terriers, Brady Tkachuk.
At the time, many fans (including myself) were skeptical of the pick, preferring sniper Filip Zadina. Thankfully Tkachuk would prove to be the right pick and is now captain of the Ottawa Senators. To say he won the fanbase over is a severe understatement, and I can say that I, among the entirety of the Senator’s fanbase have adopted Brady Tkachuk as a favorite on the roster. I will point out that I am writing this article wearing my Brady Tkachuk jersey in preparation for tonight’s game against the Panthers.
Let’s talk about Brady’s career so far
Brady Tkachuk would immediately challenge for a roster spot and made the team out of training camp. He would however start the year with a minor injury, missing a handful of games. The best thing for his development happened off the ice, as he would spend the season living with veteran (and the unofficial team captain) Mark Stone before he would be traded to the Vegas Golden Knights. In his rookie season, Tkachuk would suit up in 71 games, scoring 22 goals and 23 assists for 45 points. Not quite point-per-game yet but that was not the expectation for his rookie season. Scoring 20 goals in his first-ever season was impressive and would serve as a precursor as to what to expect from him going forward.
In his second season with the team, he would play in a higher role as top-of-the-lineup players would be traded away for futures. Assets that would be used later on as they develop. In 2019-20, he would again play in 71 games. He would score 21 goals and 23 assists for 44 points. This is basically the same production as his rookie season, but it is important to highlight that he would lead the entire team in points that season. It is also important to highlight the lower-quality roster he had to play alongside.
Brady’s third season would be in the COVID-shortened season. This would also be the first season that he would not miss any games. The 2020-21 season would mark the first year that the Senators would use their 2D branding, and would also be the first season of Tim Stützle‘s NHL career. In this shortened year, Tkachuk would score 17 goals and 19 assists for 56 points. Comparing this to his previous season totals, Tkachuk would have been on pace for 22 goals, and 25 assists for 47 points in 71 games. While not much of an improvement, he would still lead the team in points. His development would continue off the ice where he would establish himself as the leader of this team and would begin being talked about as the team’s next captain.
His fourth season would be when he would see the most improvement on and off the ice. Tkachuk would miss the first few seasons due to prolonged contract negotiations resulting in him missing training camp. While he would sign hours before the season opener, he would take a few games off in order to focus on getting game-ready. Tkachuk would sign a 7-year contract extension earning him just north of 8.2 million dollars against the cap annually. The contract would not come with him being named captain, but around a month into the season, it would be announced that Brady Tkachuk would be named captain of the Ottawa Senators. On the ice, he would finally make that next step. In 79 games, the new captain would score 30 goals and 37 assists for 67 points, again leading the team.
Now we have arrived to this season. Brady Tkachuk has continued his on-ice growth as he has scored 33 goals and 42 assists for 75 points in 73 games so far. This year should (barring any changes) mark the second time in his career that Tkachuk would not miss a change. I probably just jinxed that though. In 82 games, he is on pace for 38 goals and 48 assists for 86 points. This would be a career-high for him. Another new factor to mention is he would not be leading the team in points. Tim Stützle is currently leading the team in points and is on pace for 98 points. Tkachuk is second on the team in points and is finally playing with a team that can push themselves to a potential playoff spot. So far in his career, Brady Tkachuk has skated in 350 games and has scored 123 goals and 144 assists for 267 points. Even if the Sens don’t make the playoffs this year, it has proven to be an extremely important one for the development of every player on the roster.
Now, let’s look at Matt Tkachuk
Matt Tkachuk was drafted 6th overall in the 2016 NHL draft by the Calgary Flames. He has played 7 seasons in the NHL so far.
In his first season (2016-17), Matt Tkachuk would appear in 76 games and scored 13 goals and 35 assists for 48 points. Compared to Brady’s 45 points, this is pretty comparable. Brady scored more goals but Matt scored more assists, and 3 more total points. I’ll give them a tie for the better player in their rookie season. Matt would also have the opportunity to play alongside Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, Dougie Hamilton, and many others. The Flames were not in a rebuild in Matt’s rookie season.
In Tkachuk’s sophomore season, he would appear in 68 games and scored 24 goals and 25 assists for 49 points. In his sophomore year, he would be third in team points compared to 5th in team points during his rookie season. He would rank behind Gaudreau and Monahan. This season he would appear on their line and stick the whole season on this line.
In his third season, the Flames would acquire Elias Lindholm from the Carolina Hurricanes and lines would jumble a bit as the Flames juggled him at both wing and center, meaning that Tkachuk also jumped around a bit in the team’s top 6. in 80 games, Tkachuk would score 34 goals and 43 assists for 77 points, making that jump to be near point-per-game. He would finish the year fourth in team points behind Gaudreau, Monahan, and Lindholm.
The 2019-20 season would mark the first season in which Matt Tkachuk would lead the team in points. This season would mark a shortened season as the COVID-19 Pandemic ended the regular season prematurely. He would appear in 69 games and score 23 goals and 38 assists for 61 points. He would appear mainly with Gaudreau and Lindholm in what would be later recognized as one of the best lines in all of hockey.
The 2020-21 season would be the one where the Gaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk line would be established as one of the best in all of hockey. Tkachuk would appear in all 56 games where he would score 16 goals and 27 assists for 43 points. He would finish the season third in team points behind Gaudreau and Lindholm, who each scored 49 and 47 points respectively.
The 2021-22 season would mark Matt’s final season with the Calgary Flames. He would appear in all 82 games and completely shatter his previous career highs. Matt would score 42 goals and 62 assists for 104 points. He would finish second on the team in points behind Gaudreau who would score 115. Entering the offseason, he would approach General Manager Brad Treliving and inform him that he would not re-sign once his contract would finish at the end of the 2022-23 season. This would spark a trade where he would be sent to the Florida Panthers in exchange for assets including Jonathan Huberdeau and MacKenzie Weegar.
In the current 2022-23 campaign, Matt Tkachuk has already almost matched his totals last season. He is leading the Florida Panthers in points with 97 so far. He has scored 35 goals and 62 assists so far in 70 games and is on pace for 115 to finish the year.
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All in all, who would I prefer on my team?
To establish which player is better between the two, winning “Player I’d rather on my team” I will use 4 categories. I will calculate their average point total per year, their playing time per year, their hit-to-shot ratio, and their leadership role per year.
Numbers alone, Matt Tkachuk has scored more points in his NHL career compared to Brady, but he also has played in 2 more seasons than his younger brother. To compare points, I will average out their career points to see who would score more in one single NHL season. Averaging it out, Matt Tkachuk is good for an average of 31 goals and 48 assists for 79 points, while Brady is good for 29 goals and 34 assists for 63 points. For average points per year, Matt wins.
Now time to calculate their average ice time. I will use their average time on ice according to Hockey Reference. So far, Matt Tkachuk has averaged out to 17:43 minutes per night while Brady Tkachuk averages out to 18:08. Brady wins this category. 1-1.
Next, I will calculate their hit-to-shot ratio as both players are described as elite power forwards and those two elements for me are what best describe a power forward. A grinder is a player that just hits continuously while a power forward hits AND shoots the puck. So far, Matt Tkachuk has shot the puck 1411 times in his career and has completed 647 hits. This would mean that he for every hit that Matt Tkachuk has completed, he has shot the puck 2.18 times (one hit per 2.18 shots). Brady on the other hand, has shot the puck 1288 times and has hit 1209 times. That would mean that for every hit that Brady has completed, he shot the puck 1.06 times. In my opinion, because Brady’s hits and shots are closer together, he also wins this round as an elite Power Forward has to hit close to as much as he shoots. 2-1 Brady.
Now to count their leadership on their teams. For me, the easiest way to establish this would be to award each player a point per year they wore an “A” on their jersey, and 2 points per year that they wore the “C”. This was in accordance with each player’s Elite Prospects profile because it lists if any player wore an A at any point in their career. In Calgary, Matt wore the “A” in four seasons (through 2018-2022) and has worn the “A” in Florida this season. That means he has 5 points. Brady on the other hand only wore the “A” in 2020-2021, but has worn the “C” for two seasons now. That also means he gets 5 points. In order to decide the winner, I will subtract how many seasons each has played in the NHL by each year they have not worn a letter. Matt has played in 7 seasons and has worn a letter in 5 of them, which would mean he wore no letter in two seasons. For Brady, he has played in 5 seasons. In those 5 seasons, he wore a letter in 3 of them, which also gives a total of 2 seasons without a letter. I’ll award each a point. 3-2 Brady.
In conclusion
While it’s near impossible to quantifiably say that one player of better than the other, this subject is extremely subjective. I have tried to take a look at their career with the most objective lens I can. Based on my personal preference, and based on the numbers I chose to be the most objective I could think of, I would rather have Brady Tkachuk on my NHL team rather than his brother Matt. If there is any other way to add to this discussion please let me know in either the comments or Twitter replies.