The long-awaited Nikita Zaitsev trade finally happened Wednesday evening.
The Ottawa Senators were forced to give up two draft picks to offload the cumbersome Zaitsev contract. None of that is surprising. The Chicago Blackhawks made the trade because they are in a long-term rebuild and a couple of extra picks, along with a roster player is worth the $4.5 million annual contract.
The Senators are entering a cap crunch for the first time in a very long while and needed cap space. A second and fourth-round pick is a relatively small price to pay to gain the much-needed cap flexibility. But we all expected this to happen in the 2023 offseason, after July 1 when the $2 million Zaitsev bonus has been paid off.
The question is, why did Ottawa Senators general manager Pierre Dorion pull the trigger now instead of after the season?
There could be a number of answers to this question. Perhaps he wanted to curry favour from the new ownership that’s coming in by offloading roughly $6.7 million in real dollars still owed to Nikita Zaitsev.
Or he could be attempting to correct all of his Melnyk-era mistakes in the hopes of the new ownership letting him keep his job. One has to wonder if this trade really made sense at this point in time.
It’s impossible to say from this vantage point whether it would have been cheaper to make the trade in the offseason, once the bonus was paid off. Logically it would make sense that a rebuilding team would be happier to take on a $2.5 million contract than a $6.7 million one.
Regardless of the intent behind the trade, the fact is Dorion did decently well for himself. For reference, the New York Islanders paid two second-round picks and a conditional third-rounder for offloading Andrew Ladd’s contract two years ago.
The Ladd example is interesting because he was dealt after his $3 million bonus was paid, thus being owed only $5 million over the next two seasons. Pierre Dorion was able to offload Zaitsev for a fraction of the cost and he is owed $1.7 million more than Ladd was in 2021.
All things considered, the Ottawa Senators did well logistically with this trade by paying a smaller price than one might have thought. Strategically, however, it’s a puzzling move.
The Ottawa Senators might be buyers and sellers at the deadline
The Senators currently sit with a 27-25-4 record with 26 games to go in the 2022-23 regular season. The team is undoubtedly better than last year’s edition of the Sens who ended up with a .445 points percentage compared to this year’s .518.
The problem is the Sens are the very definition of a team in the “murky middle”. They are not a bottom of the barrel, Connor Bedard gazing team. But they are also pretty far from a playoff berth as well.
As of today, they sit six points out of the final wildcard spot, with four games in hand. They will need to be better than five of the following six teams to make the playoffs: Florida Panthers, New York Islanders, Buffalo Sabres, Detroit Red Wings, Pittsburgh Penguins, and Washington Capitals.
The Ottawa Senators have started off their trade deadline by selling off Tyler Motte and offloading Nikita Zaitsev. But they have made it abundantly clear that they aren’t done.
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Dorion reportedly is looking at acquiring a center, defenseman, and a goalie before the deadline. That’s an ambitious task but it shows they believe in this group. Dorion added that how aggressive they are at the deadline depends on the next week of Ottawa Senators hockey. They play the Carolina Hurricanes, Montreal Canadiens, and the Detroit Red Wings twice over five days starting Friday.
If they can manage six points during that stretch, the Sens will be more inclined to aggressively pursue bigger names on the market.
Getting back to Nikita Zaitsev
With the knowledge that the Sens probably didn’t have to make the Zaitsev trade now, it sounds like further trade possibilities are heating up. The Sens have been linked to Colton Parayko, Jakob Chychrun, Mackenzie Weegar, and other defensemen in recent weeks.
The full ramifications of the Zaitsev deal will only be known once the Sens make their move at the deadline. If they use their new-found cap space wisely, it will be both a logistic and strategic victory, if they squander this opportunity, it will go down as yet another blunder from the Ottawa Senators front office.