Ottawa Senators: What a Potential 2022-23 Lineup Looks Like
Plagued by multiple injuries to key players to start the season, the Sens likely won’t ice a full lineup until next season, which could look drastically different
The Ottawa Senators can’t afford another stumble out of the gates similar to the ones they’ve had over the last two seasons, identifying an ideal lineup prior to next season will be imperative to a fast start. The Senators are just 35 games through this NHL season but have already distanced themselves from playoff contention and are still missing key players (Shane Pinto, Colin White), who won’t see a ton of ice for the remainder of the season.
If handled correctly, the Senators can ice a team that should compete for a playoff spot right off the jump, and not lag behind once the season starts like we have known them to the past few seasons. With the inclusion of an impact veteran forward to help take the load off our young stars, this group should start playing really good hockey once again.
The Senators have some established top talent at the forward position but adding another player up front with considerable offensive talent would work wonders for the team’s offensive scoring depth. Adding a forward in the same vein as Claude Giroux, or notable Russian free agent Andrei Kuzmenko would improve the team tremendously.
First Line
Brady Tkachuk – Josh Norris – Drake Batherson
This is the most likely top line for the Senators entering next season, so I’ll go with them, as they’ve found success in large portions this season and its likely Senators head coach D.J. Smith will revert back to that combination at some point.
They have posted solid numbers this season as a line, usually coming out on top of their matchup, the combination has posted a GF% of 61.76% in 279:34 of total ice-time together. To nobody’s surprise, the trio is top 3 in Senators scoring, led by Batherson with 33 points, and Tkachuk and Norris stand closely behind with 26 each.
Second Line
Alex Formenton – Tim Stützle – Claude Giroux
I’m not saying that the Senators are getting Giroux, I actually don’t expect it to happen but if any player of this caliber were to come to Ottawa, it would be the Gatineau native.
Claude Giroux's future is drawing some interest in the rumor mill. The #Flyers captain is slated to become an unrestricted free agent next July. One team that could be in the running is the Ottawa #Senators, according to @SpectorsHockey: https://t.co/th5tbkGPhx
— The Hockey News (@TheHockeyNews) October 19, 2021
It’s expected that the 34-year-old veteran will likely enter the free-agent market this offseason, and there are rumours that Giroux wants to return to his hometown. A deal of 2-3 years, in the range of $6-7 million should do it for Giroux, if not it’s probably not worth it for Pierre Dorion and the front office.
Tim Stützle has quickly inserted himself as the team’s second-line center with his quality play over the last few weeks in the middle. The recently turned 20-year-old has developed great chemistry with Alex Formenton, both are in great form in their last 14 games, Stützle carrying 11 points during that stretch, while Formenton has 14. Giroux would be the perfect fit to pair with the two youngsters, he could also help in the face-off circle as Stützle is new to the position and has struggled in the face-off circle (27.9%).
Third Line
Nick Paul – Shane Pinto – Connor Brown
This is an ELITE shutdown line. The trio of Paul, Pinto, and Brown all thrive in their own end while also being more than competent at the offensive end of the ice. The Senators haven’t had a third line this capable in years.
All three have already been relied upon heavily by D.J. Smith so far this season at the defensive end of the ice, to various degrees. In his official rookie season marred by injury, Shane Pinto was used in a heavily-defensive role in his 5 games, his offensive zone start % is 5th lowest on the team at 33.33%. Nick Paul (40.00 %) and Connor Brown (47.75%) have also seen their fair share of defensive zone situations. This is a combination that makes sense with the great chemistry between Brown and Paul, with a young, promising center in Pinto.
Fourth Line
Ridly Greig – Colin White – Austin Watson
There are plenty of combinations you could go with on the bottom line – Egor Sokolov and Parker Kelly are have been playing well with Belleville this season and could warrant a potential promotion.
It’s extremely likely the Senators will ice Austin Watson on the fourth line once again next season, his $1.5 million contract doesn’t expire until after the 2022-23 season. Colin White’s finish to this season is crucial to his future with the franchise after his struggles following his six-year contract extension in the summer of 2019.
Senators’ top prospect Ridly Greig has enjoyed a stellar season with Brandon in the WHL, in just 23 games Greig has 18 goals and 35 points while also contributing his fair share of usual tomfoolery with 48 penalty minutes. Greig’s combination of skill and toughness make him an ideal fit in the bottom-six to start his NHL career.
Ridly Greig just pencil'd himself into everyone's opening night roster pic.twitter.com/hudLlMzrhz
— Martian (@LalimesMartian) September 27, 2021
The 19-year-old made it tough on the Senators to send him back to Brandon during the preseason.
The future of the Ottawa Senators at defence is looking better and better, and now with the recent rise of Erik Brannstrom, this defensive group shouldn’t be an area of weakness anymore in Ottawa.
First Pairing
Thomas Chabot – Jacob Bernard-Docker
The duo of Chabot and Bernard-Docker has been solid when used this season, and it’s obvious that there is a point of emphasis to get the two familiar with each other. Together they’ve logged 90:25 minutes together with a 54.65 CF%, despite the small sample size, Chabot has posted better numbers with Bernard-Docker than his season average (48.68 CF%).
They seem like a natural fit together and D.J. Smith has no problem putting the two together, and it would be a good idea to go with that to start next season.
Nikita Zaitsev is due $2 million in signing bonus money in both the 2022-23 & 2023-24 season, his struggles have been evident as of late, and a buyout is a potential move.
Second Pairing
Jake Sanderson – Artem Zub
Placing Bernard-Docker on the top-pairing allows Artem Zub to slide down with Jake Sanderson for his rookie season, ideally creating a shutdown pairing that will rarely make mistakes in their own zone. The two will likely get a chance to play together before the end of this season once Sanderson’s season at North Dakota comes to an end.
Zub has been as steady as expected once again this season, his dependability with and away from the puck has been invaluable for multiple Senators’ defencemen this season, and he would do the same for Jake Sanderson. Sanderson’s insane offensive progression makes this pairing even more enticing, he has 22 points in 19 games and will likely be a contender for the Hobey Baker.
Zub’s defensive acumen will make the adjustment from college to the NHL easier on Sanderson, it’s likely by the start of the 2022-23 season, Sanderson will be fully comfortable at the NHL level. Despite being just 19-years-old, Sanderson does have an advanced defensive game, and his dominance is showing at the college level:
Look at this nasty defend, turn, and outlet by Jake Sanderson. pic.twitter.com/MCmq8KEDyv
— Martian (@LalimesMartian) January 8, 2022
Third Pairing
Erik Brannstrom – Ilya Lyubushkin/Nick Holden
Brannstrom’s play over the past two weeks guarantees him a spot on the team and despite his third-pairing deployment, he can be used in offensive situations alongside Thomas Chabot, as well as on the second power-play unit. While Lyubushkin is a UFA at the end of the season there’s a chance he reaches the open market.
Lyubushkin is just 27-years-old and has the upside to play up the lineup, he produced solid advanced metrics last year in Arizona, and could potentially play with Chabot if Bernard-Docker isn’t quite ready. Adding a big, steady presence to a core with a lot of young players is a great idea if the player they’re acquiring can effectively play hockey, and in this instance, Lyubushkin can!
If the Senators start next season with a third-pair of Erik Brannstrom and Ilya Lyubushkin, they would suddenly have one of the more enviable defensive groups in the league, and depth they haven’t experienced in years.
The Senators’ goaltending situation since 2016-17 has been in a state of flux, with little to no consistency with any one goalie, in particular, now add in a 4-year, $25 million struggling goaltender in Matt Murray and you have yourself a situation. With young goalies pushing at the door, Murray could have one last chance to prove himself next season, if given the opportunity.
Goalies
Starter: Matt Murray
With 2 wins in his past 3 starts, while carrying a save percentage of 0.918%, Murray seems to be headed in the right direction, if he can revive his career over the remaining 47 games of this season, he will be in the starters net for Ottawa to start next season.
So far this season Murray has a 0.894 save percentage and a 3.36 goals-against-average with 2 wins in 10 starts, however, not all of that can be placed at the feet of Murray, the team struggled in front of him to start the season, much like the season prior. With an optimized lineup for next season, his numbers should present themselves much better.
Backup: Filip Gustavsson
It has been a very odd season for the 23-year-old Swedish netminder, plagued by the same things Murray was, Gustavsson’s numbers don’t paint a pretty picture either, in 12 games the Skellefteå native has posted 3 wins with a 0.892 save percentage and a 3.79 goals-against-average.
Now sent back down to Belleville to regain confidence, with Anton Forsberg likely pushed out at season’s end, expect Gustavsson or even Sogaard to step in.
All stats via Natural Stat Trick and Hockey Reference