Ottawa Senators: Predicting the Opening Day Roster

With minimal moves made over the course of the offseason, the Ottawa Senators Roster should resemble last years version

As the offseason began, Senators fans expected some big moves, but fast forward 2 months and the team looks very similar, minus the additions of a couple veteran defencemen. Seeing the team thrive at the end of last season (10 wins in last 14 games) and the development of multiple key players over the course of last season there’s no reason to be sombre about the teams quiet offseason.

The two moves the team did make during the offseason were the acquisitions of Nick Holden via trade and Michael Del Zotto, the latter was signed to a two-year deal. It appears that Del Zotto will be featured in a top-4 role while Holden will most likely fit in as a depth piece, whether playing the veteran journeyman over the young, established Erik Brannstrom will pay off in the end, that remains to be seen. With all the potential issues surrounding the defence, at the forward position there is much more excitement, and there’s potential for a youthful injection for the new season as both Egor Sokolov and Ridly Greig are making their case to stick with the NHL club.

In net it seems pretty clear cut, Matt Murray will assume the role as the starting goalie for the 2nd straight season, while Anton Forsberg will play second-fiddle. If the Senators want to have a chance at their first playoff appearance in five years their goaltending position has to yield much better results. We saw what stability in net could do for a team at the end of last season (Filip Gustavsson), so whether it’s Matt Murray, Anton Forsberg, Filip Gustavsson, or even Mads Søgaard, the Senators need to keep the puck out of the net if they want the rebuild to be over.

Centres

Josh Norris, Shane Pinto, Colin White/Nick Paul, Chris Tierney

Many thought that the Senators would address the centre position in the offseason, but it appears they’ve decided to keep the team the same up the middle.

Josh Norris enters his sophomore season as the team’s bonafide number one centre, his tremendous all-around game and offensive flair gives the team a more than capable option at the top of the lineup. The 22-year-old native of Oxford, Michigan was able to collect 17 goals and 35 points in his rookie season, good enough to find himself on the NHL All-Rookie team. The combination of Tkachuk-Norris-Batherson should be a treat to watch every night for Senators fans.

Now this is where it gets interesting, sort of. Shane Pinto took the reigns of the second-line centre position at the end of last season and proved he was quite capable of handling that responsibility despite the small sample size (12 games). His 7 points in 12 games is something you can’t ignore, and hopefully it’s enough to carry the University of North Dakota alumnus onto the opening-day roster.

There have been rumours surrounding the third-line centre position, and whether the Senators would move Nick Paul to the middle in favour of Colin White. If we assume all is status-quo then White will be centring the third-line with Nick Paul most likely on his left flank. The 24-year-old centre had a better season that many people give him credit for last year, White scored 10 goals and 18 points last season, alongside his strong analytics (52.00 CF%).

It’s likely that Chris Tierney resumes his role as the team’s bottom-line centre. He’s valuable on the penalty-kill and he brings a known-quantity to D.J. Smith which I’m sure the coaching staff would be more willing to bet on. With all of the news surrounding Logan Brown, it’s unlikely that he ever factors into this battle.

Left Wing

Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stützle, Nick Paul, Alex Formenton

Out of all the teams forward positions, left wing seems to be the most set in stone with each player pretty much penciled in as a part of the team.

It all starts with pending RFA, and Senators leader Brady Tkachuk, who’s been the heartbeat of this team during the rebuild, and in all likelihood will assume the role as team captain. Tkachuk took a measurable step forward last season, scoring 17 goals, and a team-leading 36 points, the power-forwards ability to create space for his teammates isn’t left unnoticed. The 21-year-old is such an intimidating presence on the ice, his 7 fighting majors led the league, something coach D.J. Smith know’s he will have to live with:

“But he’s just so big and he plays with so much energy that naturally he’s going to get into a few here and there. I think he actually got bigger since the start of the year — he was standing in the hall yesterday, I can’t believe how big he is.” -D.J. Smith

Following Tkachuk, there’s German superstar and 2020 3rd overall pick, Tim Stützle, who’s only going to be even better this upcoming season. The Viersen, Germany native finished his rookie season with 12 goals and 29 points, the Senators couldn’t have expected much more from the 18-year-old. With 53 games of NHL experience, and a full offseason of training, it’s reasonable to expect a jump in production for his sophomore campaign.

Following a breakout season, Nick Paul will likely assume his role on the third-line and top penalty-kill unit. Alex Formenton proved he was NHL-ready in his 20 games last season (6 points), his elite speed allows him to affect the game in so many ways (5v5, 3v3, PK).

Right Wing

Drake Batherson, Connor Brown, Egor Sokolov, Austin Watson

The Senators were expected by many to potentially add another player on the right side, now that seems unlikely and the team appears to be content with the group they have now.

Drake Batherson, fresh off signing a six-year, $29.85M contract, will start as the team’s top line right winger and will likely hold that title for the foreseeable future. The Nova Scotia native had 17 goals and 34 points last season and was one of the teams better players on the man advantage.

One of the better stories from last season has to be Connor Brown’s offensive outburst, the fiesty winger finished the season with a career-high 21 goals and 35 points in 56 games including an 8-game goal streak which set a new franchise record. With the tremendous value that Brown offers on the penalty-kill and the fact that he appears to have significantly elevated his offensive game allows him to fit in perfectly as the team’s second-line right wing.

When the Senators decided to deal Evgenii Dadonov this offseason, it opened up a hole on the third-line, and since the team hasn’t added a replacement it appears that they’re sold on an in-house solution, likely 21-year-old, up and coming sniper Egor Sokolov. The Senators 61st overall pick in the 2020 NHL Draft quickly burst onto the scene in Belleville, producing 15 goals and 25 points in just 35 games in the AHL, leading the team in goals and points. The Senators brass seems impressed with what they’ve saw from the Russian sniper:

COVID restrictions, still, but at least the staff and reporters, camera operators, could watch from ice level. Dorion, no doubt energized by his recent contract extension, turned playful: “Who was the best player on the ice?” he asked. Unanimously, if not simultaneously, we answered: “No 75. Sokolov.” (In retrospect we should have answered in unison: “Sharkalov!”) “Absolutely,” Dorion replied, beaming. “And it wasn’t even close.”

During a recent development camp practice, Pierre Dorion seemed enthused with the play of Sokolov, saying it “wasn’t even close” when comparing his play to the others on the ice, a practice that also included NHL hopefuls Shane Pinto and Jacob Bernard-Docker.

Rounding out the right wingers is tenacious forward Austin Watson who, barring injury, should be playing on the bottom-line for the entire season.

Right Defence

Artem Zub, Nikita Zaitsev, Nick Holden, Josh Brown

Led by the 25-year-old free agent signing by way of Russia in the 2020 offseason, the defensive-minded rearguard made his presence felt last season by being the team’s best defenceman not named Thomas Chabot. Zub was able to thrive regardless of what player he was partnered with, his stabling presence meshed perfectly with Mike Reilly, and the two of them formed a surprisingly efficient second-pairing up until Reilly was dealt to Boston. Following the trade-deadline Zub was paired with the aforementioned Erik Brannstrom, to nobodies surprise the two found success, and both were great during the Senators hot finish to the season. Zub was able to produce offensively too, recording 14 points in 47 games in his rookie NHL season.

Zub plays a very simple, efficient game and if he can keep playing his low-event, defensive style of hockey he should be a strong compliment to Thomas Chabot.

Entering his third season as an Ottawa Senator, Nikita Zaitsev will find himself playing the role of “shutdown” defenceman on the team’s second-pairing. Zaitsev is always going to be a player that’s never favoured by advanced stats, his decisions with the puck are often questionable and he struggles with consistency at times. Starting Zaitsev on the second-pairing seems like the correct move, allow a much better compliment to Chabot (Zub) take the first-pairing, while he takes the reigns alongside Michael Del Zotto on the shutdown pair.

It seems likely that the Senators will carry 7 defenceman onto the opening-day roster this season, and it appears the bottom-pair may be used in a platoon deployment. Veteran defenceman Nick Holden likely doesn’t factor in as an every game option, and that will likely be the same for Josh Brown. Holden put up very respectable numbers in Vegas last season and is a much better player than Brown:

Despite being a left-shot, Holden has the versatility to play on both sides of the ice and up-and-down the lineup, expect to see the veteran defenceman used in multiple different roles throughout the season.

Goaltender

Matt Murray, Anton Forsberg

This seems like a make-or-break season for the Senators number one goaltender Matt Murray after he struggled immensely in his debut season in Ottawa. The Thunder Bay, Ontario native posted a 0.893 save percentage and a 3.38 goals-against-average in 27 games in the nations capital last season, struggling to find any semblance of consistency for the greater part of the season. However, with a full offseason under his belt, plus an improved team in front of him, there’s plenty of reasons for Murray to return to his old form.

When the franchise made the switch from Pierre Groulx to Zac Bierk as the team’s goaltending coach, Murray started to find his game, producing great numbers in the final month of the season.

If Murray can continue the solid play that he showed at the end of last season, there’s no doubt that this team can get off to a much better start in 2021-22.

After being claimed off waivers in the middle of last season, Anton Forsberg did everything he could to earn another contract with the Senators and that he did. While his numbers certainly weren’t eye-popping (0.909 SV%, 3.21 GAA), it seemed like in every game that Forsberg played the Senators had a chance to win, and that’s all you can ask out of your goaltenders. D.J. Smith has made it known on multiple occasions how much he appreciates Forsberg’s work ethic and professionalism, he will be a great role model for the Senators younger wave of goalies.

Not to be lost in the shuffle, Filip Gustavsson factors into this conversation too, he was far-and-away the Senators best goalie last season, posting an absurd 0.933 save percentage and 2.16 goals-against average. If either Murray or Forsberg struggle, the Senators will be quick to pull the trigger on elevating Gustavsson to the NHL roster.