What lessons the Sens can learn from the semifinalists
Since making a trip to the semifinals in 2017, the Sens have missed the playoffs in four straight seasons. While one could argue this proves that making the third round alone does not indicate future success, I prefer to ignore that lesson in favour of today’s post.
Today, let’s look at the four teams left in this year’s playoffs and try to figure out what lessons the Sens, and by extension the whole league, could take away from them and what it means for the near and distant future.
Some lessons will be clearer than others, and some will require squinting to try to find a pattern that may or may not exist, but one thing’s for sure: they all will certainly be written about by me.
New York Islanders
The lesson: Identity matters
Let’s start with one of the teams where the lesson is less clear. In 2018, the Islanders lost captain and star player John Tavares to the Maple Leafs, prompting Toronto’s meteoric rise to perennial playoff success, I think.
That same off-season, the Islanders brought on Barry Trotz and Lou Lamoriello. Instead of flaming out with Tavares as many predicted, the Islanders swept the Penguins in the first round before bowing out to Carolina in four games in round two. The Islanders have since followed that surprise season up with back-to-back semifinal appearances, becoming a beacon of consistent success in the NHL.
This was largely due to Trotz’s emphasis on defensive hockey and Lamoriello building a team around his coach’s style, not to mention goaltending guru Mitch Korn following Trotz to Long Island. I’m not advocating for the Sens to commit to winning every game 2-1, especially not with the talent on the roster and in the system, but the Islanders’ identity has allowed them to play a cohesive style night-in and night-out.
The Sens already have the makings of a strong identity, with Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stützle, and others reminding us of the power of friendship, so maybe they should follow the Islanders’ lead and lean into it. This might mean not nickel-and-diming every young player when it comes to a contract extension, something this team has yet to prove they want to, or even can, do.
Vegas Golden Knights
The lesson: Identity is overrated, just get good players
One thing sports fans love is a good narrative, and the NHL playoffs are a gold mine for those. Some of the narratives are contradictory though, so fans and writers alike have to pick and choose. Or, they could really lean into the gimmick by putting two opposite narratives side-by-side with reckless abandon.
Despite being consistently one of the best teams since their inception, the Golden Knights have not been afraid to make big changes to the roster. In fact, more than half of the players who played for them in the deciding game of the 2018 Stanley Cup Finals are no longer with the team. The likes of James Neal, Erik Haula, and Nate Schmidt have been moved out and replaced by Mark Stone, Max Pacioretty, and Alex Pietrangelo. Not only have these players changed the makeup of the team, but they are also drastically better than those they replaced.
Is this a fool-proof strategy? No. The Golden Knights gave up top prospects Erik Brannstrom and Nick Suzuki (more on him in a bit) to make this happen and have yet to return to the finals. But by not being complacent, they’ve improved their roster dramatically.
This is why I’m hesitant to completely dismiss the idea of trading for Jack Eichel, even at the expense of what the team already has. If Vegas can turn over their roster, surely the Sens aren’t too good to improve theirs. Eichel may not be the perfect example, as the price may be astronomical, but Vegas shows that even very good teams should be looking to add game-breaking talent at every opportunity.
Tampa Bay Lightning
The lesson: Trust the process
Again, this lesson might seem contradictory to the last one, but I’d argue it’s not. When Tampa followed up one of the greatest regular seasons in NHL history by getting swept by the Columbus Blue Jackets in the first round, there were questions as to whether this team was fundamentally broken.
Tampa’s management had an opportunity to blow up the team, but they largely stayed the course. While Vegas has been known for their wheeling-and-dealing, Tampa has kept 14 of the 19 players who saw action in the Game 4 loss to Columbus. The Lightning’s patience was rewarded as they won the Stanley Cup the next season and have every chance to defend their title this year.
While Tampa proved patience can pay off, they didn’t sit of their hands either. Between the 2019 and 2020 playoffs, Tampa added Pat Maroon, Blake Coleman, and Barclay Goodrow. All three played a big role in last year’s championship season and have continued their impact this season.
This is worth keeping in mind for when Ottawa reaches the next level and, hopefully, becomes a staple of the playoffs for years to come. The Sens are going to lose their fair share of playoff series, some in heartbreaking fashion. The important thing is going to be not to overreact, but to make carefully calculated moves to fill the holes in the roster.
Montreal Canadiens
The lesson: Make a move
(Statler and Waldorf voice): Yeah! A move to the Canadian Division! DOH-HO-HO-HO!
Ok yes, there’s a strong case to be made that Montreal’s success has more to do with the fact that they came through a laughably weak division coupled with hockey’s inherent randomness than anything else, but I do think there’s something the league could take away from their season.
Last season, Montreal snuck into the expanded post-season despite having, and I cannot stress enough how true this is, more losses than the Buffalo Sabres. At the time, I made the case that Montreal was in a slightly better position than Ottawa both now and in the future and everyone took that really well.
So what did the Canadiens do between then and now? They added Tyler Toffoli, Joel Edmundson, Corey Perry, and Jake Allen in the off-season then added Eric Staal at the trade deadline. While with the notable exception of Toffoli, none of these players have had major impacts this season, they’ve been a strong complement to the existing core and the emerging stars in Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki.
Pierre Dorion was also busy this off-season, but with less success. Evgenii Dadonov hasn’t yet had the impact the team had hoped, and the only player acquired via trade this off-season who had anything close to a positive impact was Austin Watson. Artem Zub has been a fantastic story, but even he can’t singlehandedly transform the Sens into a contender.
At the risk of being homerish, there’s no reason the Ottawa Senators can’t make a deep playoff run next season if they make the right moves. As we saw this season, the wrong moves could be disastrous and run the younger players off the team and eventually out of town. But looking at Montreal, and also Florida, who turned into a team that could hang with the best of them off the additions of Carter Verhaeghe, Anthony Duclair, and Patric Hornqvist, and you can clearly see the impact a few small additions could have.