Ottawa Senators: 3 Free Agent Signings to Get Behind
While the Senators don’t have any glaring weaknesses on their roster, they would still be wise to bolster their talent pool
With Dougie Hamilton’s impending free agent status, I take a look at 3 potential signings that would make sense for the Senators this offseason, continue the slideshow to see if the Carolina Hurricanes defenceman cracked the list.
The free agency crop isn’t too strong behind Hamilton, but with names like Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Taylor Hall, and potentially Zach Hyman there’s definitely value at the top.
The philosophy of Senators management entering this offseason should be totally different than last, Pierre Dorion isn’t desperate for NHL bodies like he was last season, allowing himself to be much more patient and selective throughout the free-agent process.
With core players such as Brady Tkachuk, Thomas Chabot, Josh Norris and Tim Stützle among others, the Senators can now support their core by signing players that can complement their skills.
Dougie Hamilton
The Contract: 5-years $54 million ($9 million AAV)
While I fell into the peer pressure, but how could you not with the way Hamilton has performed during the majority of his NHL career, especially in the last two seasons. Over the past two years, Hamilton has produced 82 points in just 102 games, good for 11th among NHL defencemen during that stretch despite playing 20 fewer games than most of his competition.
Combine Hamilton’s outstanding presence offensively with his tremendous 6’6″ frame and smooth skating, there’s no secret why he’s the hottest commodity in this year’s free-agent class, and why Senators fans everywhere are excited about the remote chance of attaining the star defenceman. The two-way defenceman doesn’t just stand out on the score-sheet, he is one of the better-graded defencemen analytically, here’s how he ranks league-wide in different metrics:
- 56.03 CF% (15th)
- 2.82 xGF/60 (2nd)
- 1.6 GA/60 (10th)
- 62.12 GF% (15th)
Hamilton checks out in every evaluation used, there’s no denying that he’s a top-10 defenceman in the league and he’s inched his way potentially into the top-5.
One of the Senators remaining needs is finding a partner for Thomas Chabot, bringing Hamilton into the fray gives the team the chance to stop force-feeding Nikita Zaitsev top-minutes and relegate him to the bottom-pairing. This simple swap would make the team exponentially better, Hamilton’s play would provide Chabot with a mobile, competent top-pair defenceman and would likely prevent the current Senators number one defenceman from being the league’s ice-time leader three years running.
Jaden Schwartz
The Contract: 1-year $6.5 million
Schwartz had one of his least productive seasons in the league last season, but just a year after putting up 57 points in 71 games the talented forward was only able to collect 21 points in 40 games.
The 8-year veteran has produced at a consistent clip throughout his career, scoring 50+ points 5 times including a career-high 63 points in the 2014-15 season. With Schwartz being just 28-years-old, the Senators would be wise to offer a one-year “prove-it” deal and if they reap the rewards Pierre Dorion can either extend or trade the asset.
With Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stützle, Nick Paul, and Alex Formenton situated at the left-wing for the Senators next season it’s still acceptable for the team to bring in more talent up front, and Schwartz can likely play the right-wing if asked too, NHL bodies will be crucial if the Senators expect to make a run at the playoffs next season.
Here’s a quick look at how Jaden Schwartz fared analytically last season in comparison to his teammates:
- 49.01 CF% (9th)
- 49.16 xGF% (3rd)
- 48.60 HDCF% (3rd)
Schwartz was able to carry possession while producing high-quality scoring chances at a consistent rate. St. Louis struggled analytically last season and that’s the main reason for the two-way forward’s results dipping below 50%.
Adam Larsson
The Contract: 3-years $18 million
Larsson would be one of the best possible options to put next to Thomas Chabot for the next few seasons. The 6’3″ 208-pound defenceman is extremely responsible in his own end and could act similarly to the way Marc Methot used to play with Erik Karlsson, but with significantly more upside.
The stay-at-home defenceman finished the season appearing in all 56 of the Oilers’ games while producing 10 points in the process, Larsson will never cheat for offense so don’t expect him to come in and be something he’s not in Ottawa.
The high-event, sporadic play that has been consistent on Thomas Chabot’s right-side for the past few seasons (thanks Nikita Zaitsev) cannot be present if the Senators top-rearguard wants to progress into one of the league’s premier defenceman, the low-event, stable play of Larsson is exactly what’s needed opposite of Chabot.
Here’s how Larsson fared analytically compared to his Oilers’ teammates:
- 46.00 CF% (16th)
- 48.12 xGF% (13th)
Here’s a look at Jfresh’s model, which paints a better picture of Larsson as a player:
I think it's interesting that five seasons into his Oilers career, Adam Larsson is finally putting up the stay-at-home defenceman results he was supposed to all along. #LetsGoOilers pic.twitter.com/j3HKVfpBVj
— JFresh (@JFreshHockey) April 23, 2021
An effective player at 5v5 defensively, Larsson was relied upon heavily in the defensive zone by Oilers Head Coach Dave Tippett, starting just 37.63% of his face-offs in the offensive zone. If this materializes it allows the Senators to start the season with Larsson on the top-pairing and relegate Nikita Zaitsev to a more manageable role on the third-pairing.
Final Thoughts
Made quite apparent by the selections of Dougie Hamilton and Adam Larsson, the focal point of this offseason should be finding Thomas Chabot a new partner, and either of the two listed above would be substantial improvements.
The Senators are deep upfront with tons of young talent and adding another player the calibre of Jaden Schwartz would do nothing but make the team better, these are moves that Pierre Dorion should be conscious of as the rebuild nears its end.
Finishing the season as well as they did, the Senators have newfound confidence, and it goes without saying that everybody inside of that locker room expects a playoff push. Depth, veteran signings the team made last offseason ended up hurting the team more than helping, that’s why this offseason Pierre Dorion has to be more selective and base signings on players being good at hockey and not just based on their age.
The Senators shouldn’t try to change too much from the end of last season, this allows the team to target players based on quality and not quantity like the last offseason.
All advanced stats courtesy of Natural Stat Trick