Placing Ottawa Senators Skaters Into Tiers
Breaking down the Senators skaters into separate tiers
The Ottawa Senators roster is finally starting to take form as the franchise nears the end of their long rebuild, I thought it’d be a cool exercise to break the roster into four tiers (Elite, Great, Above-Average, Replacement).
This team has an abundance of young talent that’s starting to shine through as the years go by. With already established young stars such as eventual captain Brady Tkachuk and Thomas Chabot, plus young players who’ve just become NHL players such as Josh Norris, Drake Batherson, and Tim Stützle. There’s no denying the talent that the organization has brought in and developed throughout this rebuild, along with some secondary players such as Connor Brown, Nick Paul and Artem Zub who’s roles on this team are crucial for them to succeed.
Near the bottom of the roster, Pierre Dorion and staff have to make some decisions about some veteran players and whether they want to keep them in the organization, hint: they shouldn’t.
Elite
Players: Brady Tkachuk, Thomas Chabot, Josh Norris
The first two additions into the elite tier were pretty easy as Brady Tkachuk and Thomas Chabot have been the faces of the franchise since the beginning of the rebuild and deserve to be thought of highly. However, Josh Norris’ inclusion onto this list will come as a surprise to some people, but based on his play from this season there’s no doubt the Senators’ number one center should be included in the “elite” tier.
Tkachuk is the heartbeat of the Ottawa Senators, mainly due to his tremendous offensive and physical abilities that create tons of problems for opposing teams. The 21-year-old led all Senators skaters with 36 points and combine that with the fact that he was second in the entire NHL in shots (220) and hits (248). Due to the way that Tkachuk plays, he’s able to create plenty of high-danger chances from right in front of the net, this is the main reason why his advanced analytics are so strong. He carries an xGF% of 50.51% which is 5th on the Senators and his HDCF% which quantifies high-danger chances stood strong at 54.09%, good for 4th on the team.
The Senators’ top defenceman enjoyed a bounce-back season after he ran into some struggles during the 2019-20 campaign. Chabot would finish with 31 points in 49 games while he logged top-minutes, averaging 26:17 TOI/game. The Sainte-Marie, Quebec native makes a big difference when he’s in the lineup, there’s nobody else on the roster who can transition the puck up the ice as well as Chabot, and his consistent minute munching is nearly impossible to replace.
Including Norris in the “elite” tier might be open to some criticism, but first, let me make my case. The 22-year-old could be relied upon in any situation for head coach D.J. Smith and despite how good Norris was in the offensive zone, he may have been even better in the defensive zone.
Great rookie season for Josh Norris, excellent defensive results in an tough situation with okay production and offence as well. #GoSensGo https://t.co/rFtQ4KQV47 pic.twitter.com/J7jIWTpCUB
— JFresh (@JFreshHockey) April 22, 2021
The young, promising center was able to find an extra gear to finish the season, in his final 20 games, Norris had 9 goals and 17 points. Used mostly on the second power-play unit in favour of Evgenii Dadonov at the start of the season, Norris would eventually force his way onto the unit and would immediately reap the rewards. His lethal one-timer and wicked wrist-shot allowed Norris to feast on the man advantage, where his 14 points trailed only Drake Batherson.
Great
Players: Tim Stützle, Drake Batherson, Connor Brown, Artem Zub
Out of these four players in the “great” category, you can realistically expect a couple of them to make the jump to “elite” as soon as next season.
Tim Stützle likely has the most talent on the Senators roster, but he isn’t quite ready to be regarded as an elite player, he has to fine-tune the rest of his game, and then he can be discussed among the Tkachuk’s, Chabot’s and Norris’s. Stützle had an up-and-down season where at times he looked fatigued while showing some glaring holes in his defensive game, something that he worked to clean up as the season winded down. With all of that being said, the 19-year-old still scored 12 goals and put up 29 points in 53 games, cementing himself as a top-contributor this early into his career.
Drake Batherson, who’s one-third of the Senators’ top-line that includes Josh Norris and Brady Tkachuk, looks to have cemented himself as the top-option coming off the left-wing. Concluding the season with 17 goals and 34 points in 56 games and the team-leader in power-play points with 16, Batherson gave us a nice glimpse into his future with the Senators, likely as a top-six scoring winger.
Easily the most defensively inclined out of the forwards in the “great” tier, Connor Brown was one of the better surprises of the season and contributed in a variety of roles for D.J. Smith. Relied upon on both the power-play and the penalty-kill, Brown was able to put up a team-leading 21 goals (thanks to his 8-game goal streak) and 35 points in 56 games. The 27-year-old also added an NHL-high 5 shorthanded goals to his efforts, he and Nick Paul made a formidable duo while a man down.
Maybe a bit of a surprise to appear this early on the list, Artem Zub’s consistent, calm play warranted his inclusion in the “great” tier. He was able to stabilize whichever partner he played with, this includes his great run with Mike Reilly up until the trade deadline, then Zub and Erik Brannstrom were able to create a very solid second pair. Also relied upon significantly on the penalty-kill, Zub consistently flashed his great defensive game combined with the physical style he plays with every night. With all that being said, my favourite aspect of Zub’s game is the calmness he has with the puck in his own end, he seems to make the correct outlet every time and the Senators were able to break the puck out a lot more effectively in large part because of Zub.
Above-Average
Players: Nick Paul, Evgenii Dadonov, Erik Brannstrom, Colin White, Alex Formenton, Victor Mete
This is a group headlined by fan favourite and defensive savant, Nick Paul. While his production doesn’t stand out (20 pts, 56 GP), his penalty killing and strong defensive stick made him a mainstay in crucial defensive situations.
One of the biggest disappointments from this season has to be the play of Evgenii Dadonov, he was non-existent on most nights. His history of success at the NHL level allows him to stay afloat as “above-average” and who’s to say that Dadonov can’t return to similar production that he had in Florida with a Senators squad that should be much improved in 2021-22. His 13 goals ranked 5th among Senators skaters, so, despite all the doom and gloom surrounding Dadonov, he still proved he can put the puck in the net.
Brannstrom struggled to find consistent minutes on a veteran-heavy defensive core at the start of the season, but when he was finally freed from the “rookie buffer” that the Senators staff puts on young defenceman, he played well. In his final 16 games of the season, Brannstrom had 8 points in 16 games to go along with a +8 rating while playing nearly 20 minutes per night. Brannstrom’s trajectory to fulfilling his potential should accelerate next season.
While many are quick to label Colin White’s season a disappointment, you can’t hide the fact that he was unfairly scratched at the beginning of the season, and then once he regained his footing, he became injured. Despite all of that, White also carried a strong 52.1 CF% which was among the best on the Senators roster, so he was able to drive play to some extent. Unlike many players on the team this season, White was worse at the end of the season, than at the start. Having 10 points in his first 19 games on a horrendous Senators squad at the season’s start, you couldn’t ask for much better from White, but as the season lagged on, injuries and inconsistencies crept in for the two-way forward who eventually finished the season with just 18 points in 45 games.
Alex Formenton and Victor Mete were both teammates during their time in junior with the London Knights and also appeared as teammates on the Canadian 2018 World Junior team that won the gold medal in Buffalo. Formenton was a bit of a surprise to be a regular before the season’s end, but ever since the call-up the speedy winger has had an impact on each game in some capacity. The Senators 2nd round pick in 2017 finished with 4 goals and 6 points in 20 games with the big club this season and he will be a marquee name on the penalty-kill for years to come. For Mete, since the waiver claim, everything has gone smoothly, especially on the ice. He was relied upon in all situations by D.J. Smith, his skating and underrated defensive game should keep him on the team for next season, likely in a third-pairing role.
Replacement
Players: Chris Tierney, Ryan Dzingel (UFA), Derek Stepan (UFA), Micheal Amadio, Austin Watson, Josh Brown
These players fall into the “replacement” pile because of the lack of influence they have on the team now and in the future. The only player I viewed that had potential at “above-average” was Austin Watson as he played his role to the best of his ability this season.
Chris Tierney is a potential trade candidate in the offseason, and shouldn’t be in Ottawa any longer than the remaining one-year left on his $3.5 million contract. Finishing the season with 19 points in 55 games, the 26-year-old forward was underwhelming in many aspects of his game especially with how sluggish he looked on most nights.
UFA’s Ryan Dzingel and Derek Stepan are both likely to see the free-agent market as it’s likely that the Senators’ staff doesn’t see them as parts of the future. In 29 games for Ottawa Dzingel had only 9 points, while Stepan had just 6 points in 20 contests.
Micheal Amadia was uninspiring in his 5 games since coming over from Los Angeles, contributing just 1 assist. It’s likely he’s qualified as an RFA but he shouldn’t be a priority player for the Senators during this rebuild.
Josh Brown didn’t inspire anyone with the majority of his play this season, and he will likely battle Jacob Bernard-Docker next season for an NHL job.
Excluded: Shane Pinto, Jacob Bernard-Docker, Clark Bishop