Ottawa Senators: Grading Pierre Dorion’s 2020 Off-Season Moves
Artem Zub signed for 1 year, $925K
Why it made sense at the time: After spending a few years establishing himself as a high-end shutdown defender in the KHL, Zub broke out in 2019-20, scoring 13 goals and 22 points in 57 games for St. Petersburg. With Ottawa’s right defence consisting of Nikita Zaitsev, Christian Jaros, and Cody Goloubef, the team desperately needed an upgrade. While Zub was still a largely unknown commodity, having an extra body in the mix could only help.
How it looks so far: After the Sens added some further depth to the right side (more on that later), Zub fell down the depth chart and started the season on the taxi squad. Early on, it looked like this move may have been a mistake and Zub was destined for a quick trip back to Russia. Since drawing into the lineup, Zub has been fantastic. His first NHL goal was a beauty against the Leafs, helping to spark the famous comeback, while his analytics have been excellent, with his 5-on-5 xGF% of 54.20* ranks first among Ottawa defenders.
* all stats via EvolvingHockey unless otherwise noted.
Grade: A-, this looks like a solid move, and if Zub can continue this form and become a regular top-4 defender it could go even higher.
Josh Brown acquired from Florida for a 2020 4th Round Pick
Why it made sense at the time: Many of the same reasons for signing Zub apply here as the Sens were still in the early stages of their off-season at the time. Brown had spent two unremarkable seasons in Florida as a physical defensive defenceman who looked like a lower risk acquisition than Zub, albeit with a much lower ceiling.
How it looks so far: After looking decent enough in the first few games of the season, Brown quickly fell down the depth chart and only played one game in the month of February. When he’s been in the lineup he’s put up an abysmal 41.77 xGF% at 5-on-5 while putting up no points in nine games.
Grade: D-, the only thing keeping this move above a fail is that a fourth-round pick is almost nothing.
Matt Murray acquired from Pittsburgh for Jonathan Gruden and a 2020 2nd Round Pick (CBJ)
Why it made sense at the time: With the Sens moving on from Craig Anderson and Anders Nilsson out indefinitely, Ottawa was in the market for a starter for the first time in a decade. Marcus Hogberg had played well enough in 2019-20 to earn the backup job, but the team needed a number one man. With Murray losing his starting job in Pittsburgh to Tristan Jarry, the 2017 conference finalists were perfect trade partners. Ottawa had a glut of picks and prospects, so while Gruden and a 2nd weren’t nothing, losing them certainly didn’t make a huge dent in the team’s long-term outlook. While Murray was coming off a bad to very bad year, he was just one season removed from putting up a .919 save percentage, so he was far from a one-hit-wonder from his playoff runs.
How it looks so far: Murray has looked more like the 2019-20 version of himself so far in Ottawa, putting up a .888 save percentage in 19 games so far. While he has played behind a poor defence, with an expected 46.11 goals against on the season, that can’t explain all his struggles, as he’s still allowed 13.83 goals above expected. Among goalies with at least 50 minutes played this season, only Detroit’s Thomas Greiss is worse. This wouldn’t be so bad if the Sens hadn’t given Murray a 4-year contract with a $6.25 million cap hit after acquiring him from Pittsburgh. The deal makes Murray the 7th highest paid netminder in the league, ahead of 2020 Vezina winner Connor Hellebuyck and Jacob Markstrom, the top goalie on the market in the off-season. I had said I wanted to avoid contract extensions and RFA signings, but for Murray, the trade and the contract are impossible to separate.
Grade: C, the trade itself is probably a full letter-grade higher, but the contract brings this way down.
Erik Gudbranson acquired from Anaheim for a 2021 5th Round Pick (EDM)
Why it made sense at the time: The third in a trio of moves to improve the right side of the blueline, Ottawa brought in a local boy and a former 3rd overall pick in Gudbranson. Gudbranson’s star had faded since he was a top prospect, but on a team starved for defence, bringing in a vet, especially a local one, for a 5th rounder is a tough move to get too worked up about.
How it looks so far: Unlike Josh Brown, Gudbranson has not fallen off the map with the rise of Artem Zub, but has seen his minutes decrease. That’s not to say he hasn’t struggled though, as his 42.97 xGF% at 5-on-5 is poor even for his standards, ranking 7th on Ottawa’s blueline. He has served as an assistant captain and seems to be an overall positive influence off the ice, so there’s something to be said for that in another season at the bottom of the league for the Sens.
Grade: D+, as a pending UFA, Gudbranson is fairly harmless, but this really should be a one-year thing, call it the Scott Sabourin Rule.
Austin Watson acquired from Nashville for 2021 4th Round Pick (COL)
Why it made sense at the time: Ottawa was really bad in 2019-20 and needed to add some depth. Watson had signed a 3-year extension early last season with Nashville but put up an abysmal season in 2019-20, highlighted by a mind-bogglingly low 35.71 xGF% in all situations. He also struggled on the penalty kill, where he had been solid before, and saw his minutes drop as a result. With their compliment of young skill players ready to break into the league, bringing in some cheap toughness in the form of Watson may not have been the worst idea though.
How it looks so far: Is Austin Watson… good? No, he’s not, but he has been a pleasant surprise. His 5-on-5 xGF% is up to 47.35 from the 38.05 he posted last year, and he is looking very respectful as a 4th liner. His goals scored per 60 has bounced back nicely without too much of a spike in shooting percentage. As far as the enforcer role he was brought into, he hasn’t been afraid to stick up for his teammates, picking up 4 fighting majors already this year. Most remarkably for his playing style though, he has a positive penalty differential, drawing 5 and taking 4.
Grade: C+, as much as he’s been a pleasant surprise, a player like Watson can only move the needle so much. While he comes cheap with a $1.5 million cap hit, he has two years left on his deal after this season, that’s the type of player you hope to get something for taking their contract.
Evgenii Dadonov signed for 3 years, $5 million per year
Why it made sense at the time: Dadonov has been one of the most consistent goal scorers in the league the past three seasons, putting up 28 goals in both 2017-18 and 2018-19 before scoring 25 in an abbreviated 69 game season last year. At $5 million a year, he didn’t cost the team a ton and is the type of player who seems like he’ll be a great complement on the second line for Ottawa when/if they turn the corner and become contenders. Beyond his skillset, his signing was a welcome change for a fanbase that has become all too used to seeing high-end players leave town.
How it looks so far: Dadonov has scored at a slightly slower pace so far for Ottawa but has shown signs of his high-end ability, including scoring both the tying and winning goal in the 6-5 comeback win over Toronto. When he’s on, he’s looked every bit the player Ottawa hoped he’d be when he was signed, but he’s also looked invisible for long stretches at a time. Given his past proficiency, one would hope the peaks are more indicative than the valleys, but at 31 it’s always possible for a skilled player like Dadonov to lose a step and have the game pass them by.
Grade: B+, even if Dadonov isn’t the player Ottawa hoped he would be, his cap hit is still reasonable as long as he doesn’t completely fall off.
Alex Galchenyuk signed for 1 year, $1.05 million
Why it made sense at the time: Like many of the moves Ottawa made this off-season, they needed to shore up their depth and found an intriguing option for cheap. As a former 3rd overall pick, Galchenyuk still had some of that shine on him, so he seemed like a good player to take a flyer on. Much is made of his 30 goal campaign in 2015-16, but even after that he was a dangerous scorer, putting up 17 the year after that followed by back-to-back years of 19. While his defence has always been a major concern, it wasn’t until last season where he really saw his offence crater, and even then he managed a respectable 8 goals in 59 games.
How it looks so far: Galchenyuk struggled in his brief Sens career, seeing the ice in only 8 games before being shipped out as part of the Ryan Dzingel trade. He put up a solid 51.78 xGF% in all situations, but that was largely propped up by powerplay minutes in the games he did play. He also was only able to tally one pint in those 8 games, and that was a powerplay goal.
Grade: C, as a free agent signed for just over the league minimum, there wasn’t many ways the signing could be bad. It wasn’t but Galchenyuk never really fit in Ottawa and I’m not awarding bonus grades for the Dzingel trade, since I hardly think that was the intention at the time.
Derek Stepan acquired from Arizona for a 2021 2nd Round Pick (CBJ)
Why it made sense at the time: It… didn’t? I guess he fits into the same category as many of these acquisitions in that he helped shore up the depth. In November, I wrote a defence of the strategy of adding veterans even at the expense of rookie playing time, but that was before Ottawa added Stepan to what was already a crowded depth chart up front. Starting his last season with the Rangers in 2016-17, Stepan’s on-ice goals scored per 60 has dropped every season, while his on-ice goals against per 60 has gone up every year, except for a minor improvement last season. He helped the Sens reach the cap floor, as his $5 million salary this season is below his $6.5 million cap hit, but that’s still a lot of money to spend.
How it looks so far: It somehow looks even worse? His on-ice goals for rate has risen slightly from last season but his goals against per 60 has fallen to an abysmal 3.19. While the team has just announced he is expected to miss the rest of the season, when he’s been healthy he’s been largely ineffective and has been the poster boy for veterans blocking the kids in the lineup. The fact that he may already have wanted out before the injury, and it seemed to be heading towards disaster.
Grade: F, the fact that he’s a pending UFA should be a relief to Ottawa as his contract could otherwise turn into a massive headache, still, unlike Watson, Brown, or Gudbranson, the Sens gave up a legitimate asset for him. The injury can’t be held against him, but even excluding it the move did not work out.
Braydon Coburn, Cedric Paquette, and a 2022 2nd Round Pick acquired from Tampa Bay for Anders Nilsson and Marian Gaborik
Why it made sense at the time: This was the type of trade the Sens had the opportunity to make and they eventually did just a few weeks before the start of the season. With Gaborik all but retired and Nilsson’s future unclear, this trade boiled down to Ottawa taking Paquette and Coburn’s cap hits from Tampa Bay and getting a 2nd for their troubles. While neither player are what you would call “good” they did add some of that much-needed depth, and came with an asset instead of having to send one the other way.
How it looks so far: After drawing the ire of the fanbase for his constant inclusion in the lineup, Paquette was sent to Carolina in the Dzingel trade. Coburn looked destined to be joining Josh Brown in the Ottawa Mystery Spot before sliding into the lineup for Erik Brannstrom last night against Calgary, but hopefully, that is also temporary.
Grade: B-, a second-rounder is nice, although ideally, Ottawa would have gotten a little more for helping out a Tampa team that was up against the cap, what perplexes me is that Ottawa didn’t make more of these moves. Given that the players they did acquire were often replacement level at best, I don’t get the instinct not to wait out the market and pick up scrap that way.
What have we learned?
Ottawa’s off-season was a mixed bag, to say the least. While there was no slam-dunk, absolute clear win, some of the moves have promised both now and for the future.
The concern I have is that the team didn’t swing big very often. The two big acquisitions were Dadonov and Murray and even those two are far from sure things. It’s very possible we’ll look back on this off-season and see a missed opportunity.
Pierre Dorion has done a good job amassing one of the league’s top prospect pools, but there’s still lots of work to be done before this team can flip the switch to being contenders. Dorion has proven to be a good draft-and-develop GM so far but hasn’t had much of a chance to prove what he can do beyond that. If this off-season was a sneak-peak of things to come, consider me worried.