Comparing the Lightning Core to Ottawa’s Prospects

The Tampa Bay Lightning finally got over the hump Monday night and won the Stanley Cup

It was the second cup for Ottawa’s expansion cousins, while the Sens are still searching for their first.

Tampa Bay won the Cup thanks in large part to their homegrown talent, and with Ottawa having one of the top prospect system’s in the league, there is room for optimism for the Sens. But how do their young players stack up to Tampa’s? Today we’re going to look at some of Tampa’s core pieces and see if there are comparables in Ottawa’s system.

Of course, Tampa also won thanks to some of the veterans they added such as Blake Coleman, Patrick Maroon, and Kevin Shattenkirk, not to mention great coaching, development, and yes, ownership. All of these areas are potential concerns for Ottawa to differing degrees, and may ultimately hold the team back from reaching Tampa Bay’s level, but for today we’re only interested in the potential of the young core.

Nikita Kucherov

Acquired: Drafted 58th overall in 2011

Kucherov flew under the radar a bit in his draft year, in fact, Tampa themselves preferred fellow Russian and former Senator Vladislav Namestnikov, taking him in the first round in 2011. But Kucherov quickly established himself as a dominant offensive player in the NHL scoring 29 goals his sophomore year and topping 30 every year since including two 40-plus campaigns. Kucherov was a key piece of Tampa’s offence in their first finals appearance in 2015 and was a top-line force this year.

Comparable: Alex Formenton, Drafted 47th overall in 2017

Much like Kucherov, Formenton was a well-regarded prospect in his draft year but not the kind of player you target in the first round. In fact, Ottawa picked Shane Bowers, since traded to Colorado in the Matt Duchene trade, ahead of him in 2017. Formenton’s speed and size have helped him tear up the AHL and may have him in line for a Kucherov-style breakout next year. His raw scoring numbers probably won’t reach Kucherov’s heights, but he still could establish himself as a bona fide star in the league.

Victor Hedman

Acquired: Drafted 2nd overall in 2009

After a rocky start to his NHL career, Hedman really established himself as a top defender in 2013-14 by tallying 55 points in 75 games. He went on to win the Norris in 2018 and the Conn Smythe for his 10 goal performance in this year’s playoffs. That resume may not even do him justice, as he is probably the best defenceman in the league today. Unlike Kucherov and Point though, Hedman was expected to be a key piece of the team from the minute he was drafted, and despite some early struggles, he’s more than lived up to that billing.

Comparable: Thomas Chabot, Drafted 18th overall in 2015

As the 28-year old Hedman, Chabot is a bit older than the rest of the young core at 23. While he wasn’t a second overall pick like Hedman, Chabot very quickly became a top-end defensive prospect after being drafted in the first round of 2015. Chabot’s raw numbers look even more impressive than Hedman’s did in the early parts of his career, so if he’s able to take his game to the next level there’s no reason to expect him to be anything less than one of the very best defencemen in the world, something that would be a brilliant complement to Ottawa’s young forwards.

Steven Stamkos

Acquired: Drafted 1st overall in 2008

After winning the franchise’s first Stanley Cup in 2004, Tampa began a steady decline from the top of the league. Finishing in last place with 71 points in 2008 was the team’s low point, but they were rewarded with the first overall pick. They used that pick on Steven Stamkos, who would quickly become one of the league’s top goal scorers, even tallying a remarkable 60 in 2011-12. Stamkos was eventually named captain and has been the face of the franchise during the past decade and finally led the team to their second Stanley Cup this season.

Comparable: Brady Tkachuk, Drafted 4th overall in 2018

This comparison has less to do with style of play and more with their impact on the team and franchise. While Tkachuk and Stamkos did score 22 and 23 goals in their respective rookie seasons, Tkachuk’s 21 this past year falls just a bit short of Stamkos’ 51 in his sophomore year. But Tkachuk came to the franchise at arguably their lowest point, just a year removed from a Conference Finals appearance but facing an impending rebuild without one of their first-round picks. While the decision to take Tkachuk was controversial, he quickly endeared himself to Ottawa fans and is a leading candidate to become the team’s next captain, whenever they choose to name one.

Mikhail Sergachev

Acquired: Trade from Montreal in 2017

Appearing in four games for the Canadiens in 2016-17, Sergachev was one of the team’s top defence prospects and looked like a major part of Montreal’s future.

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Instead, Montreal traded him to Tampa for disgruntled youngster Jonathan Drouin, a move that has not aged particularly well for Montreal. Sergachev is still just 22 but has firmly established himself in the Lightning top 4, providing an elite one-two punch with Victor Hedman on the blueline.

Comparable: Erik Brannstrom, Acquired from Vegas in 2019

Like Sergachev, Brannstrom was a top prospect in another system before he was acquired by his current team, as he was the primary piece Ottawa acquired in the Mark Stone trade at last year’s deadline. Brannstrom played 31 games for Ottawa last season, but with no goals and four assists, he’s struggled to establish himself at the highest level. If he does develop into the player he looked like he would at the time of the trade, that would give Ottawa two of the top left-handed defencemen in the league, creating a potentially lethal blueline.

So what have we learned? Well at first glance, Ottawa’s top prospects seem to fall a bit short of what Tampa has put together, with all five prospects mentioned above likely project as less than their comparable. But despite how good the Lighting look now, it’s important to remember that all these players were at one point themselves prospects with questions about their game.

One Tampa player not mentioned was Andrei Vasilevskiy, as I do not believe Ottawa has a goaltending prospect that projects to reach that height. Goalie prospects are notoriously hard to project though, so between Filip Gustavsson, Joey Daccord, and others, it’s entirely possible the Sens come out of their rebuild with a young stud between the pipes.

These comparisons left out another crucial factor: Ottawa’s three first-round picks, especially the 3rd and 5th overall selections. Without knowing who they will take in those slots, it’s hard to find a comparable player, but Ottawa will certainly take two players whose potential may top all of their current youngsters, so by the time the draft comes around the team may be in a drastically better position to follow in the Lighting’s footsteps.