Draft Day Scenarios For The Ottawa Senators

The Ottawa Senators are entering the draft with two, top 5 picks and as draft day (finally) approaches

Scenario 1: #3 Quinton Byfield #5 Lucas Raymond

Grade: A+

First off, any scenario that has Byfield dropping to pick 3 is going to influence the grade in my mind. In this scenario, Lucas Raymond is the 5th pick and arguably drops to that spot as well (although there are many players you could pick in that range). This scenario is the best-case scenario because Ottawa gets two, elite potential players, both with ceilings that could potentially reach the height of the entire draft class. Ottawa gets the #1 Centre in Byfield, which arguably fills their greatest need at the moment. Then you couple that with an elite potential right-winger in Raymond, who has speed, skill and a shot. Walking away from the draft with 2/3 of a top-line would be an unprecedented position and unquestionably escalate the pace of the rebuild. It’s also how these 3 players would fit together that tips the scale for me.

https://twitter.com/BarSouthNCelly/status/1122642307436535809?s=20

With Tkachuk presumably assuming the LW position on the top line, the Sens would now have 3 players who possess very different, high-end skill sets that could potentially get the job done in a variety of ways. The 3 together, at least on paper check nearly every box both offensively and defensively and there’s almost nothing they couldn’t achieve together. Whether it’s puck possession, the cycle, net-front presence, physicality, speed, skill, size, playmaking or scoring, this line would have the potential to do it all. Byfield and Raymond for the ultimate win on draft day.

Scenario 2: #3 Tim Stützle #5 Lucas Raymond

Grade: A

There’s some that suggest that if Byfield is taken by LA at #2, it’s a huge drop in terms of what’s available. Personally I’m not buying it. In this scenario it’s very close to the previous one, however things would surely look different upfront. Some suggest that Stützle/Raymond play a similar style and posses too similar of a skillset to draft them both. The fact is, for a rebuilding team like the Sens who currently have many holes and (prospects) question marks throughout their lineup, they should still take the two best players available. In my mind, Stützle is the obvious choice if Byfield is LA bound and Raymond remains the #5 pick if he’s available after Detroit picks at #4. In terms of what this gives you, Stützle has the potential to produce 80-90 points at his ceiling whether you view him as a centre or a left-winger. He has elite speed, agility beyond belief and jaw-dropping playmaking abilities.

Does he try to do too much at times or get caught out of position trying to win a puck back? Yes. He’s also 18 years old and can quite frankly do things in a game that most people wouldn’t even try in practice. Combine that skill with Raymond, who is a more subtle, slightly smaller version of Stützle, who plays the opposite wing and possesses a better finishing quality and you’ve got yourself two, lethal weapons upfront. I’m not entirely sure this scenario presents the same punch if you put your 3 top players on a line together (Tkachuk Stützle Raymond) but you could certainly opt for a more balanced approach offensively. For that reason, I’m nearly impartial to the best-case scenario as this one works out to be pretty nice in its own way.

Scenario 3: #3 Quinton Byfield #5 Jamie Drysdale

Grade: A-

Again, if Byfield is selected 3rd we’re off to a great start. In this scenario, Ottawa opts to balance things out with their 2, top selections. Going with the best Centre prospect available and coupling that with the best defensive prospect available seems like a great idea.

https://twitter.com/Sudbury_Wolves/status/1213545681966764032?s=20

For the most part, I agree although things start to get interesting when you look at the fit factors surrounding the Drysdale selection.

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We have covered what Byfield would provide upfront, which is an awful lot but what about choosing Drysdale? A right-shot defenseman capable of producing 50 points in the NHL seems very, very enticing. The only problem I have with this selection (aside from Drysdale being a huge Toronto Maple Leaf fan) is how he’d fit in the lineup. The obvious choice would be trying an offensive-minded juggernaut pairing of Chabot and Drysdale. I’d be really intrigued by this pairing and that’s why it’s one of my favourite scenarios to discuss but there’s not a lot of evidence supporting two, like-minded, offensive defensemen working together on the same pairing. There’s certainly some risk involved in a scenario like this, what happens if it doesn’t work out the way it does on paper? It’s ultimately a risk I’d be willing to see play out and therefore it’s still worthy of a high grade. Worst case scenario, Ottawa would be in a position to trade an offensive defenseman (and the last time they did that they got the 3rd overall pick)

Scenario 4: #3 Quinton Byfield #5 Jake Sanderson

Grade: B+

Ok, so Ottawa has landed Byfield in this scenario, presented the fanbase with the rebranded OFFICIAL 2D jerseys and the dream is only going to get better right? Well…hold that thought a minute. Here comes the “let down” you were all waiting for. The truth is, this is the scenario that I personally see as the most likely outcome of the 2, top picks. We’ve covered Byfield enough but what about Jake Sanderson at #5. Is this going to be the most accepted pick among Sens fans? Obviously not but we can’t forget the reaction that many fans had to selecting Brady Tkachuk not long ago, after Dorion passed on the “more skilled” Filip Zadina, only to prove us all wrong basically immediately. I would offer the same patient reaction that I wish I would have had after the Tkachuk pick. Sanderson is arguably a better fit for Ottawa over Drysdale.

If Ottawa feels they must have one forward, one defenseman from these 2 top picks, this could in fact be the best-case scenario. Despite being left-handed and not an ideal fit to pair with Thomas Chabot, Sanderson could eventually slot into the second pairing alongside Senators’ top prospect, Erik Brannstrom. Brannstrom, also left-handed, has a history of playing his weak side and might actually be more suited to do so at the NHL level. Sanderson will not bring a major offensive contribution to the lineup, although he’s closer to the offensive ceiling that Drysdale possesses than many think. I would suggest his ceiling ranges from the 30-40 point mark, depending on how he’s used and what roles he’s given with the team. He is great at transitional play and one of the best at skating the puck through the neutral zone, creating clean zone entries. This is an area of struggle for Ottawa as currently, only Chabot has the ability to make these plays. Sanderson would surely make the blueline a point of emphasis in the Sens rebuild plan. The argument to be made against this scenario is less about Sanderson’s abilities and more about the quality players that Ottawa left on the table for other teams at #5. For that reason, this scenario enters the “B zone” but overall it’s still potentially a great scenario and one that will grow on people over time.

Scenario 6 #3 Tim Stützle #5 Jake Sanderson

Grade: B-

Missing on Byfield at #3 is not the toughest pill to swallow. Missing on Byfield at #3 and ignoring some of the players available at #5 to go with a “steady, lengthy defenseman” is definitely a scenario that would take some time to adjust to. This scenario isn’t exactly a head-scratcher but isn’t exactly a home run either. We’ve covered what these guys can do individually and I think there’s a lot to like about Stützle for sure and probably, eventually a nice player in Sanderson as well but Sens fans have waited for what seems like forever for this draft. This scenario just lacks the fireworks we were all anticipating. Perhaps if something like this happens Pierre Dorion could save face by acting on some low risk/high reward trade options later in the draft to add that missing element from what should be a monumental day in Sens history. If not, the day itself could be a minor let down for the fanbase. Honestly, even in this scenario, I’d be happy overall. I think if most teams walked away with a potential 1st line forward and in addition a top 4 defenseman, it would be hard to use the term “disappointed” but it would also not be a party worthy scenario either.

Scenario 7: #3 Lucas Raymond #5 Jake Sanderson

Grade: B-

Here it is! You’ve missed out on Byfield, passed on Stützle to choose a late riser in Lucas Raymond at #3. Then you step up to the plate again at #5, after Steve Yzerman and the Red Wings laugh themselves to the “zoom podium” to select Stützle and you call out “Jake Sanderson from the University of North Dakota.” This is the scenario that would ultimately cause yet another uproar from the fanbase. I’m not saying cars would be lit on fire but this is not the reason I booked the day off work and had the kids babysat. Whatever I’m drinking tonight is to drown my sorrows when it should be a celebratory day. Ultimately Sens fans would feel robbed yet again and this could have another negative impact on the market and the coveted and hopeful return.

Then, when the dust settles you realize that maybe Lucas Raymond is a more complete player than Stützle, maybe Jake Sanderson’s late-season ascension up the draft rankings will continue into his post-draft-day selection and you slowly talk yourself into a B-. That’s right, even this (rather unlikely) worst-case scenario is a B- in my mind because Ottawa is picking 2, top 5 prospects come October 6th and there’s really no loss in sight. Get excited!!!