Ottawa Senators Trade Tiers

Setting the Senators players into tiers dependant on their trade value

With the Stanley Cup playoffs entering the home stretch with only four teams remaining, the NHL’s off-season is nearly in full swing. For the Senators, that means more and more teams are joining them on the sidelines, where the team has been idling since March. Every team that gets eliminated also creates a new potential trade partner for the team, meaning the likelihood that we’ll see some off-ice action soon keeps increasing.

Earlier in the off-season, I wrote about potential targets the team could pursue in the trade market, and many others have done the same. But as we all know, you have to give something to get something, which means that if the Sens want to acquire talent, they’ll likely have to send some players the other way. It’s next to impossible to know specifics about which players other teams would want in trades, but we can make educated guesses on the likelihood of players being sent packing in trades.

To do this, we’ll look at a series of tiers ranging from players who are nearly untouchable to those who may as well pack their bags already. Given that the Sens are still rebuilding, they likely won’t have much of an interest in moving prospects, so while that possibility can’t be completely ignored, we’ll limit this piece to players who played at least 10 games for Ottawa in 2019-20. We’ll also exclude pending UFAs from the equation, meaning Ron Hainsey, Craig Anderson, Mark Borowiecki, Matthew Peca, and Scott Sabourin will all be omitted.

I’ve created eight tiers based on the scientific method of Whatever I Feel Like, so let’s start with the players least likely to be moved this off-season.

Nearly Untouchables Tier

Thomas Chabot, Brady Tkachuk, Erik Brannstrom, Drake Batherson

These are the players that, in columns like this, would often be deemed untouchable. The phrase untouchable though often brings to mind a General Manager hanging up the phone the second the player’s name is brought up. While these four players are very good, they likely fall short of that high of a distinction.

Instead, these are the players that, if the Sens were to move on from, would have to be in a franchise-altering move, with a superstar calibre player coming back the other way.

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While a move like that is certainly not impossible, Ottawa doesn’t seem to be in a position quite yet to shake up the very fabric of the league with a seismic move, meaning these players will almost certainly be Senators next season.

Tkachuk and Chabot are here for obvious reasons, as the two best players and still just 20 and 23 respectively, they’re likely to be the cornerstones of the franchise for the better part of the next decade. They are also both in the upper echelon of players at their positions and will likely just keep getting better.

Despite my best efforts to limit this to established NHL players, it was inevitable that some players showing up here would be in some way or another seen as prospects. Both Brannstrom and Batherson both firmly fit into that category as they’ve yet to play a full year in the NHL, but have been with the big club enough that I feel justified including them here.

While Brannstrom hasn’t quite developed into the type of game-breaking defenceman that the team and fans alike hoped for when he was the centrepiece of the Mark Stone trade, he’s still far and away the team’s best defensive prospect. While he was by no means horrible last season, his value has deteriorated a bit, making now the worst possible time to pull the chute. Brannstrom just turned 21 at the start of the month, so the idea that he’s anything close to a bust at this point in his career is unfounded.

Rounding out the upper quartet is Drake Batherson, who may not be as sexy as pick as the other three, but with 19 points in 43 games over parts of two seasons in Ottawa, as well as finishing second in points last season on a very good Belleville team, Batherson projects as a top-six player with great skill and scoring touch (Josh Norris was first on Belleville in scoring and would likely be in this tier too had he not played only three games in the NHL). While he is a bit on the older side at 22, that also means that his emergence into a top-six role may be imminent, which would put him close to the same value as Tkachuk has right now. He shouldn’t quite get to Tkachuk’s level of course, but top six forwards don’t grow on trees, so the Sens will in all likelihood hold on to the ones they have in the system.

Try to Sign Tier

Connor Brown, Anthony Duclair

Both Brown and Duclair are restricted free agents at the end of this season and will be eligible for UFA status in 2021 and 2022 respectively. Last season, both players were key contributors to the team’s top six. While Brown played a more consistent two-way game, Duclair’s peak showed flashes of elite skill and speed where he looked like a player who could be a 30-goal threat. The pair find themselves in similar positions in the team’s plans as they look like they could be a real nice middle six pieces for the future.

Of course, there is the small matter of them needing new contracts. Because they’re restricted free agents, the Sens hold all the cards and can more or less decide if they want them back next year. The bigger question is if they can/want to lock them up long term. If the price is right, I see no issue with making Brown and/or Duclair a part of the team’s future, but if either is commanding what the team deems to be too much, either in terms of cap space of pure dollars, then the decision will be between signing them to a short term deal and risk letting them walk or looking to move them to a team that would either be willing to pony up for a longer contract or be fine with using them as a rental.

If they do trade either one, it would likely be to a team looking to contend either now or in the very near future, with the return being some combination of picks and prospects. Much like Nick Paul however, Brown and Duclair seem to be players the Sens value higher than other teams likely would, so a trade likely only makes sense if all other options have been exhausted.

Deadline Bait Tier

Artem Anisimov, Mike Reilly, Anders Nilsson

All three of these players will be unrestricted free agents in 2021, and given the current state of the Sens, they will likely be poised to be sellers at the trade deadline once again next season. If that is the case, then these three will likely be the ones who’ll be packing their bags sometime between now and the deadline, whenever that may be. Unlike past years, there’s no Erik Karlsson, Mark Stone, or even Jean-Gabriel Pageau on this list, so it’s not as if teams will be lining up for their services. Still, all three provide enough value to lead me to believe they won’t be a Senator at the end of next season, and it’s also possible that teams do their deadline shopping early and one or more are gone by the start of next season.

None of these players are a lock to be traded though. Anisimov’s contract is going to be a tough one to move as he’s still making $4.55 million against the cap and the goalie market is so unpredictable so it’s hard to say with any confidence that Nilsson will be gone. While I don’t see any as a re-sign target, it’s always possible that Ottawa decides to hold on to one or more if they want to maintain some semblance of depth if there are injuries, other trades, etc.

Chris Tier-ney

Chris Tierney

Tierney gets his own tier for more reasons than the potential for a pun. He could fit into the same category as Connor Brown and Anthony Duclair, as he’s a 26-year old pending RFA, but he seems to have fallen outside of that middle-aged core mix. He ranked 5th among forwards with 17:11 minutes per game and was sixth on the team with 37 points. While his numbers are pretty good, they don’t jump out at you, especially for someone who’s likely already reached or nearly reached their peak.

There is something to be said for his consistency, as Tierney was one of four Senators to play all 71 games last season, and has only missed one game over two seasons in Ottawa. As a centre, Tierney has the potential to provide some stability down the middle for the foreseeable future. Because of that, I would lean slightly towards signing him but would be cautious as to how many years to commit to him, if he wants a longer deal, I’d be less apt to sign him than with Brown or Duclair. If that is the case, it would seem to be more likely that the Sens could find a trade partner to take him, either as a long-term piece or a rental, that would provide good value in return than they would trading Brown or Duclair.

Bad Contracts Tier

Nikita Zaitsev, Bobby Ryan

Fresh off his Masterton win, Bobby Ryan has re-endeared himself to Sens fans. If his brief stint after completing the Player Assistance Program is any indication, there’s reason to believe that he may still have something to contribute on the ice after all. That said, if there’s an opportunity to get out from under his massive contract, you almost have to take it. Ryan will still be making $7.25 million against the cap for the next two seasons and even though the Sens are far from capped out, the flat cap has the potential to wreak havoc across the league. That said, because of the feel-good story and the flat cap making contracts like his even less appealing, Ryan is an unlikely candidate to be moved in the off-season. While his contract is bad, there are only two years left, which likely won’t be a major roadblock to the Sens next contention window.

Zaitsev, on the other hand, has four more years on his deal, albeit at a moderately more reasonable $4.5 million. Ottawa would likely be more inclined to move him, but the same flat cap factors apply to him as they do to Ryan. The four-year term is tough to swallow, and if the Sens are actually able to become a top team with their upcoming core, that could prove a problem. That said, Zaitsev is a veteran who can play some minutes at the NHL level, so while the team is still rebuilding he won’t likely pose much of a problem. If his contract does put the Sens in a bind in the future, they can always trade him later when the term will be more digestible to other teams.

The Sens should be eager to move both of these contracts off of their books. But with the league’s economic climate uncertain, it’s unlikely they’ll find an acceptable offer this off-season.

Sure Why Not Tier

Andres Englund, Jean-Christophe Beaudin, Jayce Hawryluk

All of these players are young, but not young enough that they could really still be considered prospects, Englund and Hawryluk are both 24 while Beaudin is 23. None of them could really be considered regulars either, as Englund led the trio in games played last season with 24. As such, all of them are likely nothing more than depth players.

Ottawa would likely have no qualms with moving any of them, either as part of a larger deal or to a team that thinks they’re underrated and could thrive with a different organization. At this point, any speculation on their trade status would be futile, but because they all played over 10 games with Ottawa this season they get included here. Sorry about this folks, only one more tier to go.

Prospects Tier

Filip Chlapik, Logan Brown, Rudolfs Balcers, Christian Jaros

While Batherson and Brannstrom are nearly untouchable, and the trio in the last tier are a little on the older side, these four are firmly in prospect territory. The one possible exception is Christian Jaros, who is already 24-years old, but having played 61 games in 2018-19, I felt he deserved a little more distinction than the likes of Andreas Englund.

None of these players likely project to be game-breakers, with Chlapik and Balcers looking like they’ll provide some skill down the lineup, with Jaros possibly becoming a reliable top-six defender. The wild card here is Logan Brown, who despite putting up big numbers in the AHL, has yet to establish himself in the NHL. Brown is already 22, so the clock is definitely ticking, but as a big physical player, his prime may start and end later than a speed and skill type. In the AHL, Brown has proven that he can play at the pro level, but the NHL has seemed half a step too quick for him for the most part. If he’s able to take a small step forward though, Brown has the potential to be a special player for Ottawa, meaning that, despite the temptation, the team would be wise to hold on to him as any potential return wouldn’t even come close to what Brown could become.