Ottawa Senators: Predicting the Opening Day Lineup
With the upcoming NHL season surrounded by uncertainty, I tried my best to predict the Senators opening day roster for 2020-21
With such an exciting prospect pool, the future of the Ottawa Senators relies on their young stars and most of them will have a great chance to kickstart their NHL careers next season.
While Ottawa has some key veterans still on the roster, it will be important to focus on what’s important for the future of the team. With veterans such as Bobby Ryan, Artem Anisimov and potentially Ron Hainsey, whether the Senators want to keep the latter two as fringe NHLers will be interesting to see.
With hopeful AHL graduates waiting in the wings, those names including Drake Batherson, Josh Norris, Logan Brown, Alex Formenton and Rüdolfs Balcers, Pierre Dorion will have to make some difficult decisions on what course of development these prospects require. Having such exciting prospects moving up the ranks, along with two top-5 draft picks in the upcoming draft, Ottawa should have a marketable roster unlike those of recent years.
Forwards
1st Line
Brady Tkachuk-Chris Tierney-Drake Batherson
With a shortage of high-end talent at the center position, Ottawa sticks with the known commodity in Tierney to start the season as the number one. D.J. Smith didn’t roll with a bonafide number one center last season, as he rolled his top 3 lines regularly, but as of this point, Tierney has the advantage. Producing 48 and 37 points respectively over the last two seasons, the former Shark adds some offensive flair to the top line.
While on the wings Ottawa boasts untapped potential, with Brady Tkachuk already asserting himself as one of the top young guns in the NHL. Tkachuk has enjoyed back to back 20+ goal seasons and he’s Ottawa’s star upfront. He was on pace to become the first player in NHL history to record 300+ hits and 300+ shots in a season, but ultimately due to Covid-19 that couldn’t come to fruition.
Brady Tkachuk needs to average at least 3.5 SOG/GP for the rest of the season to become the first player to ever register 300 hits and 300 SOG in a single season. He is currently averaging 3.69 SOG/GP.
— Frank Senators (@sleepenbaker) March 11, 2020
The engine that makes the Senators go, the skill and physicality Tkachuk plays with is why experts are predicting Tkachuk as the new captain in Ottawa.
Now with Batherson, the talented forward has become has been too effective in the AHL to warrant another year there, after easily topping over a point/game last season in Belleville. He adds great offensive talent to the top line and will hopefully form a dynamic duo with Tkachuk. With 43 NHL games under his belt, expect those numbers to continue to rise as he becomes an NHL regular.
2nd Line
Anthony Duclair-Quinton Byfield-Connor Brown
Assuming Ottawa nabs Quinton Byfield in the 2020 NHL Draft, he will find a role as the second-line center for the team. While some scouts think Byfield needs some more grooming in junior, I think he’s a lot further along than many think, especially with his 6’4″ frame. Lastwordonhockey.com expressed their belief in Byfield’s NHL readiness:
He seems to be NHL ready and should be in competing for a spot in his new team’s training camp next season. However, it may take a year or two before he is ready to be a first-line centre
While he will most likely situate himself in the middle-six for his first season, he is without a doubt capable of being NHL ready.
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Last year’s 3rd overall pick Kirby Dach enjoyed a successful rookie season in the NHL, with Byfield being of a higher pedigree than Dach there’s no reason the 2020 draftee can’t make a significant impact next season.
With veteran forward Connor Brown and Anthony Duclair on his wings, Byfield will be in a position to succeed. Duclair was an All-Star last season while Connor Brown enjoyed a career year with his increased role in Ottawa. This is a comfortable situation for Byfield to step into, stuck between two veterans who were relied on heavily last season by D.J. Smith.
3rd Line
Alex Formenton-Colin White-Bobby Ryan
Here’s where it gets interesting for the Senators. They have to figure out which roles they want their up and coming prospects to take on. Ideally, Formenton is a dominant third-liner, using his elite speed to be a threat on the penalty kill and on for 3 on 3 overtime. Formenton is viewed as a player with a high-floor due to his blistering speed, that will always be a high priority for any teams forward group.
Colin White will look to rebound from a disappointing campaign last season, where he was underwhelming with just 23 points. At the time he was drafted, many scouts projected him as a top-9 centerman and if he can be a solid producer on the third-line, Ottawa will have no qualms. With Formenton and a recently energized Bobby Ryan, this line could be a pain for opposing teams top lines to play against.
4th Line
Nick Paul-Logan Brown-Josh Norris
Despite being the fourth-line, this group has enough talent to take a regular shift for Ottawa. Logan Brown and Josh Norris will add offensive talent to the bottom of the lineup, without Ottawa just jogging out stop-gap solutions like Scott Sabourin and J.C. Beaudin. Brown and Norris will also have the ability to slip onto the second power-play unit, to allow them to develop offensively on the power-play.
While Nick Paul likely won’t play minutes on the power-play, the Senators know what they have in him now at 25-years-old, they don’t have to worry about harming his development with limited minutes.
13th Forward
Artem Anisimov/Jake Hawryluk
Defence
1st Pair
Thomas Chabot-Nikita Zaitsev
Stubbornly, D.J. Smith has leaned to keeping Nikita Zaitsev and Thomas Chabot together. What the electric Chabot brings to the ice, Zaitsev counters with his inability to create any offence and porous defensive play. Zaitsev’s heat maps aren’t endearing:
.... pic.twitter.com/X1l3kwzvHq
— Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath) April 21, 2020
In comparing Zaitsev’s impact to Cody Ceci’s the results weren’t nice for Zaitsev. As the Senators defenceman gives up more high-quality chances and doesn’t create much on the offensive side of the puck.
While personally I wouldn’t play Zaitsev anywhere near Chabot, Smith’s belief in the pairing will make it, unfortunately, a thing again this season.
2nd Pair
Christain Wolanin-Erik Brannstrom
While young and inexperienced, this pairing has the potential to break out next season as both players will look to take a huge step forward in their development. Wolanin missed the majority of last season with a shoulder injury and Brannstrom struggled to find confidence in his first NHL season.
Wolanin would only appear in 3 NHL games in 2019-20, but many are hoping he can return to his form from the season prior.
During the 2018-19 season, Wolanin was widely considered the Senators 3rd best defenceman, producing 12 points in just 30 games. He consistently used his great puck-moving ability to break out of the defensive zone, something other Senators defenceman struggle with. When Wolanin steps on the ice whenever the 2020-21 season gets underway, there are no doubts in my mind he will be the teams second-best defenceman.
Christian Wolanin is at worst the Sens 3rd best defenseman, don’t @ me
— Trevor Shackles (@ShackTS) January 9, 2019
As for Erik Brannstrom, he was slightly disappointing during his first elongated stint in the NHL, only producing 4 points in 31 games, it seemed as confidence was lacking in his game. After being sent back to Belleville mid-season, Brannstrom looked to regain his confidence, especially in the offensive zone. Despite being left-handed, Brannstrom prefers to play on his off-side, so pairing with Wolanin would force him to play the right side. Pairing the Senators top prospect with a great puck mover like Wolanin should allow Ottawa to drive possession with the two on the ice.
Third Pair
Mike Reilly-Artem Zub
Assuming Mark Borowiecki is gone in free agency:
Looks like Mark Borowiecki’s time in Ottawa might be coming to an end (via @itsborocoprunning: instagram 📸) pic.twitter.com/a2eiMrhA5G
— SenShot (@SenShot_FS) August 17, 2020
and they don’t re-sign near 40-year-old defenceman Ron Hainsey, Ottawa will most likely be stuck with a bottom pairing of Mike Reilly and Artem Zub. With Christian Jaros and Andreas Englund the other two options to slide in on the bottom-pair, but they just don’t have the ability to be relied upon for a full NHL season.
Zub 24, has been playing the last 4 seasons in the KHL, primarily for SKA St. Petersburg, where he had blossomed into one of the top defenceman in the league. Zub enjoyed a boost in numbers in his fourth season, scoring 13 goals and 22 points in 57 games, finishing 5th in team scoring. Zub also led all KHL players with a +35 rating, the next closest on his team was a +20. Pierre Dorion made some comments to TSN after the Zub signing:
“We’re pleased that Artem has elected to pursue an NHL career here in Ottawa,” Senators general manager Pierre Dorion said. “Artem is a smart defensive defenceman who moves the puck well and who utilizes his strength and mobility to make plays. His extensive international resume will help him transition to a North American style of play but his key attribute is his sound ability to defend.”
Pleased with what they saw, especially away from the puck, Dorion seems to expect Zub to thrive defensively and rightfully so, but don’t expect too much in terms of offence from the Russian rear-guard.
While he played very solid in his last KHL season, there are no guarantees he will become an NHL defenceman, but after signing a one-year $1.775 million contract in May, he will a headstart on the other fringe NHL defenceman on the team.
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As for Reilly, acquired by Ottawa on January 2nd, he was brought in to be an NHL body who could provide some stability so some prospects weren’t forced to play in Ottawa. In 30 games with Ottawa, he had 12 points, Reilly was uninspiring but can be an average third-pairing defenceman.
7th Defenceman
FA Signing
Starter
Anders Nilsson
Before missing the latter half of last season with a concussion, Nilsson had cemented himself as the starting goalie over Craig Anderson. Carrying a 9-9-2 record with a 0.908 SV% and a 3.18 GAA, the numbers don’t looks great at first glance, but playing with one of the league’s worst teams it’s tough to post great numbers as the last line of defence.
Last offseason Nilsson was signed to a two-year deal worth $5.2 million, to keep him with the team through the 2020-21 season. Nilsson has greatly outplayed Craig Anderson during his time with Ottawa and now with Anderson a UFA (Unrestricted Free Agent), he should take the reigns as the Senators starter.
Backup
Marcus Hogberg
Now, this is where it gets interesting, Ottawa has seemingly an easy decision to make here, but could make the crease crowded with bringing in a goalie via free agency.
Ottawa has an ideal situation now with a veteran goaltender in Nilsson starting and a talented backup looking to cement himself at the NHL level. Hogberg was very solid in his first NHL season, going 5-8-8 with a 0.904 SV% and 3.12 GAA, the ridiculous amount of overtime losses was for the majority bad luck, it also proves that Hogberg regularly gave Ottawa a chance to win the game and that’s all you want from your goaltender.
Allowing Hogberg to play in the NHL alleviates some of the concern about the goalie situation in the minors, Ottawa would be able to now start with Daccord and Gustavsson in the AHL and Mandolese in the ECHL. The goalie room would fall into place perfectly if Ottawa just keeps the status quo.