Ottawa Senators: Who to Cheer for in the Draft Lottery

It’s been nearly a month since the Sens were delivered a moderate punch to the gut in the 2020 Draft Lottery, sliding to 3rd and 5th and missing out on the first overall pick.

The bigger story of that night, however, was that the first overall pick was not decided after all. As fans are well aware by now, the first overall pick, presumably Alexis Lafrenière, will be awarded to one of the eight losers of the Stanley Cup Qualifiers. With the Hurricanes out of the running due to their three game sweep of the Rangers, that leaves 15 teams with a shot at the top spot and the Stage 2 Draft Lottery on Monday.

For Sens fans, not all possibilities are created equal, as some teams would be nightmares with Lafrenière added to the lineup, while others wouldn’t move the needle much at all. Even though they aren’t in the running for Lafrenière, the Sens are still very much invested in where he begins his NHL career. With that in mind, lets rank the 15 teams who could pick first overall from best to worst for Ottawa.

1. New York Islanders

Yes, the best possible outcome would be the one where Ottawa loses one of their three first overall picks this year. The first rounder the Islanders sent over in the Pageau trade is top-three protected, meaning the Islanders would hold the pick in 2020 and instead Ottawa would receive their first in 2021. The 2021 Islanders pick could very well end up like San Jose’s pick this year, where the team’s window slammed shut and gifted Ottawa another top 5 selection, due to the age of their roster, as well as their tight cap situation.

I would caution about calling this scenario at all likely, as while the Islanders could be primed for a collapse, the same could be said last year, as their underlying numbers have been largely underwhelming the past couple of seasons. After two years of sustained success though, it’s getting harder to call them an outright fluke and instead credit should be given to their coaching and systems that have allowed them to turn into quasi-contenders in the post-John Tavares era.

That said, while this results could be detrimental to the Sens if the Islanders go on a deep run with Lafrenière next year, it’s the only possibility with a distinct possible upside, making it an easy choice for number one.

2 – 9. Any team in the Western Conference

At the risk of sounding lazy, I can’t be bothered to differentiate between any of the Western teams. Sure, Edmonton or Chicago winning would seem unfair, and I’m sure Sens fans wouldn’t mind seeing Matt Duchene and Kyle Turris get a boost in Nashville as they chase a cup, but overall there isn’t much to separate any of the team’s in the other conference.

Your personal mileage on all eight team’s may very, and as someone with a soft spot for the Oilers as well as fun in general, seeing McDavid, Draisaitl and Lafrenière on the same team could be all kinds of entertaining. From a Senators’ perspective though, keeping Lafrenière out of the East should be a priority.

10. Florida Panthers

With the entire Western Conference out of the way, the bottom six will be made up entirely of the Eastern Conference team without a direct impact on Ottawa. The best possible option of these six then is Florida.

The Panthers aren’t all that good: they would have fallen short of the playoffs if it weren’t for the qualifiers, their $70 million goalie Sergei Bobrovsky has been a bust so far in year one, and with Mike Hoffman and Evegnii Dadonov set to hit the open market, there’s little reason to expect them to be any better next season. So if Lafrenière spends the next decade in Florida, that shouldn’t have catastrophic impacts on Ottawa’s Cup chances over the next decade.

12. New York Rangers

While the Rangers finished behind Florida and Columbus and have already bowed out of the play-in round, they rank as a worse option here due to their future outcome. While the two teams before them are average team’s with average future outlooks, the Rangers are filled with young talent looking to contend in the near future, making them a potential obstacle for the Sens.

They already have established stars in Artemi Panarin and Mika Zibanejad, as well as emerging young talent such as Adam Fox, Filip Chytil, and Kaapo Kakko, not to mention the two-headed monster of young goalies with Alexandar Georgiev and Igor Shesterkin. The Zibanejad factor keeps them from being a nightmare outcome for Ottawa, but adding Lafrenière to their young core would almost certainly put them in a better position going forward than Ottawa.

13. Toronto Maple Leafs

Toronto is a mix of the two negative factors we’ve considered up to this point as they’ve been a consistent playoff team the past few seasons while also teeming with young talent that could

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take them to the next level at anytime. Adding Lafrenière would improve both their current and future outlook, which could be a major roadblock to contention in the Atlantic division. They’re also a bitter rival, and nothing would be worse for Ottawa than dreaming of Lafrenière all season only to see him star down the 401.

But… this has the potential to be hilarious. While the Leafs winning with Lafrenière would be horrible, seeing Toronto have another franchise player fall into their laps and still failing to make good on their potential, like the 2010s Oilers, would be pretty fun to watch for fans of the other 30 teams. Is spite healthy? I don’t know, I’m not a doctor, but it’s definitely fun.

14. Pittsburgh Penguins

Wow, Pittsburgh gets another generational talent, what a surprise, finally they catch a break. While I ignored the deservedness factor for Chicago and Edmonton out west, given Ottawa’s recent history with the Penguins make it impossible to ignore here.

While Pittsburgh isn’t a young team, they have enough talent that with a player like Lafrenière their window could extend significantly and interfere with Ottawa. Unfortunately, due to this year’s playoff format, Sens fans should probably hope for them to lose their play-in round and get a 1/8 chance at picking first, thanks to their opponent.

15. Montreal Canadiens

This is the worst-case scenario. While Montreal isn’t good, they’re better than Ottawa right now as they managed to grab the last play-in spot this season. Their future outlook may even be better too, as The Athletic’s Scott Wheeler ranked their prospect pool second in the league, while Ottawa was down at seventh. They also have 14 picks in the upcoming draft, compared to Ottawa’s 13. While Ottawa’s rebuild seems to be going well, Montreal’s seems to be going even better, adding Lafrenière to the mix would leave Ottawa with a lot of work to do to keep pace.

The Sens and Habs rivalry would make this a particularly painful result, and unlike Toronto I don’t see Montreal struggling with Lafrenière as a particularly hilarious experience. Montreal getting the first overall pick would give Ottawa a division rival who would at the very least be their equal, and while that could make for some fun series down the line, I don’t particularly like Ottawa’s outlook in those.