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Ottawa Senators: Defenceman or forward at fifth overall?

By Daniel Bruce |
GUELPH, ON - MAY 8: Marco Rossi #23 of the Ottawa 67's skates against the Guelph Storm during Game Four of the OHL Championship Series Final at the Sleeman Centre on May 8, 2019 in Guelph, Ontario, Canada. The Storm defeated the 67's 5-4. (Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images)
GUELPH, ON - MAY 8: Marco Rossi #23 of the Ottawa 67's skates against the Guelph Storm during Game Four of the OHL Championship Series Final at the Sleeman Centre on May 8, 2019 in Guelph, Ontario, Canada. The Storm defeated the 67's 5-4. (Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images)
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OSHAWA, ON – FEBRUARY 7: Quinton Byfield #55 of the Sudbury Wolves skates during an OHL game against the Oshawa Generals at the Tribute Communities Centre on February 7, 2020 in Oshawa, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Chris Tanouye/Getty Images)
OSHAWA, ON – FEBRUARY 7: Quinton Byfield #55 of the Sudbury Wolves skates during an OHL game against the Oshawa Generals at the Tribute Communities Centre on February 7, 2020 in Oshawa, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Chris Tanouye/Getty Images) /

Ottawa’s needs

With Ottawa’s great prospect depth there aren’t many evident holes at most positions, but they could use a few game-breakers that immediately bolster their prospect pool.

Centre

The Ottawa Senators have only one established prospect at centre in the NHL level being Colin White, but he has not looked like a top-six center in his NHL career. Ottawa does have Chris Tierney who only at age 26 has had a solid stint in Ottawa so far, but projects as most likely a bottom-six centerman.

Players like Nick Paul and Filip Chlapik project as depth forwards who will most likely be placed in a fourth-line role for Ottawa. The organization has two players at centre who can morph into a top-six role for the team, those being Logan Brown and Josh Norris. Norris who is just 21 years old, played above expectations last season for Belleville in winning the AHL rookie of the year and being a first-team all-star selection.

Compiling an impressive 31 goals and 61 points 56 games for Belleville and has the potential to be a top-six centerman. While Logan Brown had some injury issues but was also very successful in the time he played, he produced 28 points in 25 AHL games and played 23 games with Ottawa with 8 points. Brown looked dynamic for stretches in Ottawa but struggled with injuries and consistency in his play.

Assuming Ottawa selects Stutzle who has center eligibility or Byfield who is a natural center they will have one more option to place in as a future top-line center. If Ottawa selects Stutzle, who played on the wing in Germany they would be more inclined to select a center in Marco Rossi.

Right-Wing

With Brady Tkachuk entrenched as Ottawa’s future top-line left winger for the foreseeable future they are set on the left side. Behind Tkachuk are the likes of Anthony Duclair, Alex Formenton, Rudolfs Balcers and Vitaly Abramov. At right-wing the story is a bit different, with Drake Batherson as the only prospect who garners any significant attention, Ottawa could afford to upgrade. Connor Brown has been very solid since coming over from Toronto but is ideally a guy you want no higher than the third line.

Raymond stands out as a great option at 5, a highly-skilled right-winger who is regarded higher than fellow countrymen Alexander Holtz who is an unlikely option.

Raymond who is ranked higher than Holtz by most top scouting service seems like the most realistic selection, the highly-skilled, agile winger would slip right in as Ottawa’s top prospect on the right side.

Don’t sleep on Cole Perfetti either, an uber-talented left-winger who has some flexibility to play center.

Left Defenceman

Despite Ottawa only having one defenceman on the right-side, indications have been that Brannstrom would prefer to play on the right side, which would fill a gap on the blue line.

Ottawa also has top prospects in Jacob Bernard-Docker and Lassi Thomson who are both right shots and should be a solid presence on the backend in Ottawa for the future.

While Ottawa has Chabot occupying the left side, it gets thin after that with Christian Wolanin, Mike Reilly and Andreas Englund. I expect Wolanin to contribute in the NHL but don’t expect Reilly and Englund to be of any importance.

Jake Sanderson would make sense if Ottawa were to select a defenceman, as their right side is potentially loaded with talent.

LONDON, ON – MARCH 09: Cole Perfetti #91 of the Saginaw Spirit controls the puck as he skates in the third period during OHL game action against the London Knights at Budweiser Gardens on March 9, 2019 in London, Canada. (Photo by Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images)
LONDON, ON – MARCH 09: Cole Perfetti #91 of the Saginaw Spirit controls the puck as he skates in the third period during OHL game action against the London Knights at Budweiser Gardens on March 9, 2019 in London, Canada. (Photo by Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images) /

Why select a forward?

Regularly noted as having a top 5 prospect pool in the NHL, Ottawa has a good amount of depth throughout the roster. What Ottawa has in-depth they lack a bit in terms of star power, especially up the middle.

The Ottawa Senators have one surefire young player at forward and that is Brady Tkachuk, at just 20 years old he has already proven he has a bright future in the NHL through his first two years. As mentioned above Drake Batherson and Josh Norris have been great in the AHL and look like up and coming stars but that doesn’t guarantee NHL success. As well Colin White has tapered off a bit and will unlikely be a lineman that will help Tkachuk thrive.

Ottawa needs more star power upfront, and they can take full advantage of that by taking a second forward in the top 5.

The Senators already have their game-changing defenceman that every team covets, in Thomas Chabot, and have an all but definitive star prospect in Erik Brannstrom as well. While at forward Ottawa has Brady Tkachuk, some depth players but nobody who projects to be a point per game forward. Ottawa can easily fix that by selecting any of these three forward prospects:

1) Lucas Raymond (RW)

The talented Swede who scouts have been drooling over for the last two seasons would be a transcendent talent for the franchise.

Playing in the Swedish Hockey League one of the best leagues in the world, Raymond struggled for ice time, contributing to his underwhelming stat line of 4 goals and 6 assists in 31 games. Raymond only played around 10 minutes per game which makes producing points a greater challenge:

Holtz did outproduce Raymond in points per 60 but played with better players with Djurgardens IF, due to his increased role.

In the U18 men’s gold medal game from last season Raymond out on a show, scoring a hat trick along with the overtime winner, the one goal that stands out is when he put a ridiculous move on the Russian defenceman and finished with a well placed shot:

There are some pundits on Raymond’s game, he is seen as a boom or bust selection due to his lack of size and lesser production in Sweden, but his dynamic play can’t be overlooked. His agility and great hockey IQ should make him a great pick at 5.

2) Marco Rossi

The Austrian center who played in the Ottawa Senators backyard for the 67s enjoyed a phenomenal season. With 39 goals and 120 points in just 26 games for the 67s, his production was off the charts.

Rossi didn’t rely on other teammates to aid his production, he cleared the second leading point producer on the roster by 30 points and was without a doubt the best player on his team.

Rossi also has a proficiency to make players around him better, his teammate Jack Quinn made a jump from 12 goals the year prior to 52 goals this season while playing primarily with Rossi. The Austrians great playmaking would suit perfectly with Brady Tkachuk and other Senators wingers. Batherson can get lost in the fold here, but if Rossi is on the second line he and Batherson could be a match made in heaven.

If Ottawa gets Byfield, Rossi would likely man the second-line center position, giving Ottawa a coveted one-two punch down the middle (Malkin, Crosby). If they end up picking Stutzle, Rossi could form a potential top line with Tkachuk and Stutzle perhaps creating another Pizza line.

Rossi is very strong around the goal line, often finding cross-seam passes setting up his teammates for easy goals, as shown below:

Despite only being 5’9″, Rossi has a very thick lower body which makes him very hard to knock off the puck. His low center of gravity allows him to be very strong in the corners.

3) Cole Perfetti

There have been rumours swirling that the Red Wings have been very high on Perfetti and are considering taking him at fourth overall. Cosentino of Sportsnet draws parallels of there interest being rooted in having Perfetti thrive in their home state with Saginaw.

While the draft has no guarantees, Perfetti could still very likely be in play for Ottawa, and if selected would bolster their play on the wings.

Perfetti is often praised for his great hockey sense, he always tends to make the right decisions, you can never but a value on how much hockey sense impacts the game. Craig Button tried to put a value on his ability and honestly not many would disagree with his take:

While not the greatest skater, he can improve it and he should have no trouble adapting to the big leagues with how well he thinks the game.

Perfetti would be a great fit opposite Tkachuk, he would consistently be able to setup Tkachuk for great scoring chances that not many other players in this draft would be able to do.

PLYMOUTH, MI – DECEMBER 11: Jake Sanderson #48 of the U.S. Nationals follows the play against the Slovakia Nationals during game two of day one of the 2018 Under-17 Four Nations Tournament game at USA Hockey Arena on December 11, 2018 in Plymouth, Michigan. USA defeated Slovakia 7-2. (Photo by Dave Reginek/Getty Images)
PLYMOUTH, MI – DECEMBER 11: Jake Sanderson #48 of the U.S. Nationals follows the play against the Slovakia Nationals during game two of day one of the 2018 Under-17 Four Nations Tournament game at USA Hockey Arena on December 11, 2018 in Plymouth, Michigan. USA defeated Slovakia 7-2. (Photo by Dave Reginek/Getty Images) /

Why select a defenceman?

As the phrase is often said “Defence wins championships”, the NHL embodies that, especially in the postseason. If Ottawa wants to build a winner, the defence will play a large part in that, while I think there is more value in the forwards at pick five, if Ottawa selects a Drysdale no fans should be aggravated.

The Ottawa Senators has their number one defenceman in Chabot and has one of the top defensive prospects in the game with Erik Brannstrom so there isn’t a pressing need.

Despite being a left shot, Brannstrom has shown the ability to play the right side and prefers being on that side. If the young Swedish defenceman can play his best there he could occupy a top-four spot on the right side.

Making the addition of a right shot with their second pick less of a glaring need.

There is one defenceman who stands out from the rest, then one that Ottawa could take a flyer on  if they think it’s worth it at number five:

1) Jamie Drysdale (RHD)

The dynamic, smooth-skating defenceman who represented Canada at the world juniors as a 17-year old, is regarded as the best defenceman in the draft and it isn’t particularly close.

With Bernard-Docker and Thomson as the two best prospects on the right side, Drysdale would immediately unseat them as the cream of the crop.

Drysdale thinks the game at a very high pace and is an exceptional skater, potentially being a future partner on the first pairing with Chabot.

Despite being just 5’11” and 170 pounds, Drysdale can play both ends of the ice, and is rarely a liability on the defensive side due to his great positioning. In the clip below Drysdale is much smaller than the Russian player but takes away his time and space with great positioning, showing off his defensive flair for an undersized defenceman.

https://twitter.com/TheOilKnight/status/1192610353902952449?s=20

He is wise beyond his years, hence the coaches at the world juniors giving him an increased role throughout the tournament.

He would add a right-handed shot inside Ottawa’s top four for the future.

Jake Sanderson (LHD)

This is just incase Ottawa takes a leap of faith on the big defenceman from the United States National Team Development Program (USNTDP).

His late rise has led to Sanderson being ranked in the top 5 by two of the main scouting services.

This seems like a more realistic pick the more the days go on and the fit is there, since Brannstrom likes to play on the right-side. If Brannstrom sticks to his weak side, that leaves Ottawa with the incumbent Chabot and depth defenceman like Christian Wolanin, Mike Reilly and Andreas Englund which isn’t pretty.

Ottawa is missing that physical presence on the blue line, they have Mark Borowiecki who is 30 years old and not someone you want touching your top four.

Heres a clip of Sanderson lighting up fellow prospect Brendan Brisson:

https://twitter.com/PaulGuilbeault/status/1219432292533313536?s=20

Sanderson also isn’t a slouch in the offensive zone either, he uses his large frame to shield defenders and is effective at holding the puck in the zone.

He also is efficient at breaking out of his own zone and making that great first pass:

If Ottawa were to take a defenceman at fifth overall, Sanderson may make more sense than Drysdale.

OSHAWA, ON – NOVEMBER 22: Jamie Drysdale #4 of the Erie Otters passes the puck during an OHL game against the Oshawa Generals at the Tribute Communities Centre on November 22, 2019 in Oshawa, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Chris Tanouye/Getty Images)
OSHAWA, ON – NOVEMBER 22: Jamie Drysdale #4 of the Erie Otters passes the puck during an OHL game against the Oshawa Generals at the Tribute Communities Centre on November 22, 2019 in Oshawa, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Chris Tanouye/Getty Images) /

Verdict

The Ottawa Senators have a need for game-breaking talent upfront and can solidify that with two selections in the top 5. The Senators have premier talent in the game with Chabot, and Brannstrom has all the makings of being a great second option for Chabot.

The Ottawa Senators’ needs would indicate a selection of two forwards as sufficient, and in terms of best players available I believe Raymond, Rossi and Perfetti surpass Drysdale and Sanderson in terms of talent as well.

The 2020 NHL Draft is filled with forward talent in the top 20, but through the late first-round into the second round defenceman becomes more abundant. Ottawa could take the skilled forwards early, then target defenceman with a few of their four second-round selections.

The need for Ottawa and talent in this very talented draft indicate that an effective move would be to select the best players available and bring two star forwards to Ottawa.

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