Ottawa Senators: Discerning The Value Of Matt Duchene

Matt Duchene has been an interesting topic of conversation over the past year for the Ottawa Senators and throughout the NHL. He’s been rumoured to be traded to a number of teams yet remains in Colorado. His trade seems inevitable, but discerning his true value is difficult.

Duchene was drafted third overall in the 2009 NHL Entry Draft. Since then he has had a rather successful career. He has become a steady scoring threat on a team that has been rather unsuccessful since his arrival. Normally he has been a 50-60 point player but showed promise with a 70 point season in 2014. However, this past season he put up just 41 points in 77 games. Now with the Ottawa Senators inquiring about him they must determine his value.

Comparables

When trying to determine to value of the player it can best be done by looking at that players comparables. A great one for the Sens is Kyle Turris. Since coming to Ottawa Turris has been a consistent 50-60 point player. Very similar to Duchene except he hasn’t had that one exceptional season as Duchene did. Despite this they are very similar.

Turris is two years older than Duchene and has shown to have a higher ceiling than Turris while playing on a worse team. There shouldn’t be much question that Duchene is better than Turris. However, it’s not as big a gap as many would believe. Turris doesn’t get as much recognition due to playing in a smaller market.

Another factor to look at with Duchene is he only has two years left on his contract. After that he is an Unrestricted Free Agent and can sign anywhere. This lowers his value drastically.

Next: Ottawa Senators: The Purpose Of The Pre-Season

Immediate Improvement

For the Ottawa Senators picking up Duchene would improve their team significantly. With the Sens being a team that needs to win now, it may be worth sending prospects and picks to Colorado for a better chance to win during Karlsson’s prime. However, trading away Kyle Turris would be a mistake as he’s more likely to stay with the Sens long term and they are very similar players.