Kyle Turris: Just How Good Is He?
Kyle Turris is having a remarkable season. Timely goals and consistent play have solidified Turris as the teams top centre. Turris has two game winning goals thus far. His most recent one came last night, propelling the Senators to a victory over the rival Montreal Canadiens. How much is Turris contributing to the Senators success? Just how good has Kyle Turris’ season been thus far? Will he set career highs for goals and points?
Even Strength Star
Turris has been very effective at even strength. Even strength play is the best state of a hockey game to analyze. A recent article on Turris did a good job profiling him, but did not mention enough of his prowess at even strength. The largest sampling of data occurs during even strength play as most of the game is played at even strength. Turris has six even strength goals and four assists, 2nd on the team in terms of even strength points. Turris is the Senators leader in even strength goals. Turris has been superb in generating offence on the top line alongside Mark Stone and Mike Hoffman.
Turris has been on the ice for fourteen even-strength goals for and nine goals against. Turris currently sits fourth on the team in even strength CorsiFor%. In my opinion he actually sits second on the team as Clarke MacArthur and Chris Wideman have not played more than five games. Turris has a CF% of 52.87%. Turris has a CorsiRel of 7.51%,this means that when Turris is on the ice the team generates 7.51% more shot attempts for than against.
If you are not familiar with “advanced stats”, then the above paragraphs might seem like a mess of numbers. Those paragraphs can be summarized in simplistic terms, the statistics are actual proof of what has been occurring. Kyle Turris has been scoring at even strength and helping the Senators first line score at even strength. The twenty six year old centre has also been on for more goals for than against, he has also shown that the team generates more offense when he is on the ice than when he is off.
Will This Be His Best Year?
Will this be Turris’ best season statistically? Turris best season in terms of points came last year when he put up sixty-four points. Last season saw the young centre score twenty-four goals, two short of his best, which was achieved the previous season. Turris is on pace to score fifty-five goals, have thirty-four assists and deliver eighty-nine points.
As mentioned earlier, Turris has been remarkable during even-strength. His even strength numbers are much more impressive than they were last season. Last season saw Turris score twelve goals, tally twenty-four assists, and thirty six points at even-strength. This season has been much more impressive. In twelve games he has scored six times and tallied four assists (at even-strength). Turris already has half of the even strength goals he had over the course of all of last season! He is on pace to score forty-one goals, tally twenty-seven assists, and have sixty-eight points at even-strength.
The Kyle Turris Reality
Will Turris achieve those amazing point totals? If his projected numbers prove true he would almost certainly lead the NHL in scoring. His projected totals from this year would have made him the leading scorer in goals and points last season. Will he continue to produce at his current pace? Probably not. Turris currently holds a shooting percentage of 24.2% (across all strengths). Almost one in four shots by Turris result in a goal. It is very unlikely that Turris keeps such a ridiculously high shooting percentage, almost impossible.
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The Ottawa Senators are quite fortunate to have Turris as the teams top line centre. He is having a remarkable season with solid performance during even-strength play. He is on pace to be one of the top scorers in the NHL. Even if Turris does not keep up his ridiculous pace he will still most likely set personal bests in goals,assists, and points.