Decisions, Decisions: As The Deadline Approaches

As of writing this, the Ottawa Senators currently sit 10 points out of the last Wildcard spot in the East. They would have to go on a pretty good run to even sniff at getting into the playoffs, and although unlikely for a team that has struggled to play more than .500 hockey all season long, it isn’t impossible.

All that being said, the Senators have some tough decisions ahead.

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What’s Wrong?

As has been stated numerous times around the net, it’s chiefly Ottawa’s defense that has cost them points this season.

Jared Cowen started the year off atrociously, and has since ramped up his play to somewhere in the realm of mediocre – but with a cap hit of over 3 million and a the pedigree of a first round draft pick much more was expected of him.

Cody Ceci has been one of the more consistent defencemen on the club, but his consistent play isn’t at a high enough caliber to be making too much of a difference on this team right now as he (and Cowen as well) has frequently been victimized by speedy players on opposing teams.

Eric Gryba and Mark Borowiecki have both come as advertised – which isn’t saying too much. Gryba has been a slow and steady bottom pair defenceman and won’t ever be much more than that. The same goes for Borowiecki, although he does have a bit more pugilism in his game than Gryba does.

For whatever reason Patrick Wiercioch has never been able to solidify his spot in the Senators’ lineup, even when a lot of the fancy stats say he’s one of the better possession players on Ottawa’s back end. Patrick’s position is puzzling, and it leaves us to wonder where he fits in the future of the organization, much to the bane of some of the fans.

I honestly almost forgot Chris Phillips. He’s 36, and he’s clearly lost a step. A frequent scratch lately, rumors are swirling as to if he’ll be dealt to a contender – but it would be tough to think of a team that could really use a player like Phillips in his current incarnation.

Marc Methot has had about as bizarre a year as you could. Injured for the vast majority of this season due to nagging hip problems, the small sample size we’ve seen has been reminiscent of Methot’s of years past: steady and dependable and a sufficient safe-guard that allows Erik Karlsson to be the game changer he is. He’s in a contract year, so it will be quite interesting to see how that effects the offers (or lack thereof) that Ottawa puts forth as we approach the trade deadline.

Karlsson started off the year by trying to do too much, and was drawing the ire of some fans and national media (at times unjustly so). But since the return of Methot he has started to look more like the demi-god we all know and love.

What do we do: Buyers or Sellers?

Brian Murray is going to have to decide what direction he wants to take this team down.

He’s stated many times that he likes the pieces he has, and that he truly does believe the Senators can be a team that makes the playoffs, but if you take a look around the web at what most of the fans think, it’s not quite as sterling as what Murray sees.

First we have to decide on what direction to take.

Buyers

If Murray decides to go this route (which I don’t believe he should) then he’ll have a few options to look at from some almost definite sellers.

Edmonton – Its been well documented that the Sens should be looking at defenceman Jeff Petry. Petry is one of the few players on Edmonton that isn’t entirely awful. It is generally understood that given a better environment with better players around him, Petry could be a more than serviceable defenceman for another team.

Seeing as he’s a UFA at the end of the year, I’d imagine it would take something like a decent roster player and a draft(s) pick to secure his services. Ex: Wiercioch + 3rd and 4th round pick.

There’s talk that a player like Jordan Eberle could be had, but for the right price. It’s hard to gauge exactly what could be expected as a cost, but it would likely be something along the lines of a high draft pick, a roster player, and a prospect. Ex: 2016 1st round pick, Zack Smith, Shane Prince.

Jan 21, 2015; Ottawa, Ontario, CAN; Ottawa Senators goalie Craig Anderson (41) clears the puck away from Toronto Maple Leafs center Tyler Bozak (42) in the first period at the Canadian Tire Centre. Mandatory Credit: Marc DesRosiers-USA TODAY Sports

Phoenix – Arizona is likely to be a fire-sale, so it would be worthwhile for the Senators to inquire on a number of players. Chief among them would be d-men Oliver Ekman-Larsson, and Keith Yandle.

Admittedly, landing OEL is a bit of a pipe-dream, but the state of the Coyotes allows for this writer to dream. Imagine the Senators being able to recreate Olympic Karlsson by being paired with OEL and how dominant that pairing could be.

I’d think the cost would be a bit of a ransom, something like a first, a good roster player, and a blue-chip prospect. Ex: 1st round 2015/16, Wiercioch/Smith, Matt Puempel/Prince and maybe a 2nd or 3rd rounder.

Yandle is a bit more attainable, but would still be pricey. Somewhere along the lines of a first, and a roster player like Wiercioch.

Sellers

David Legwand, Milan Michalek, and Zack Smith should all be shipped out for exactly anything we can get for them. Legwand and Michalek are both past their prime, and Smith can be replaced internally.

If his fate doesn’t lay with the Senators organization, then the club should try and see what kind of return they could get for Wiercioch. I would hope something along the lines of a struggling prospect (Sven Baertschi) or a 3rd and 4th round draft pick.

Chris Neil and Phillips. This is a bit of a touchy subject, but if the Senators aren’t going to contend then it might be a good idea to bid a bittersweet farewell to one or both long term Sens in hopes that they might be able to get a cup before the end of their careers. Both are in the twilight of their careers, so it would make sense to expect no more than some late round draft choices.

Much has been written about Craig Anderson and any possible return for him, so I won’t go too far into it here, but suffice it to say that he is likely are most valuable movable piece and could garner us the most significant return.

All in all, these upcoming weeks will be very important in deciding the future of this franchise. Hopefully Brian Murray makes the right choice, I know we all wish him well.

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