After the Ottawa Senators beat the Anaheim Ducks 6-2 on Friday night, things were looking up for the team. They had gone 3-0-1 in their last four games, and they had won back to back games for the first time in about a month and a half. It seemed like the Senators were poised for a good stretch of games where they could play themselves back into the playoffs.
However, the last two games against the Montreal Canadiens and Washington Capitals have put those hopes to a halt for now. Suffice to say, the game on Saturday against the Canadiens was huge for the Senators. It was a test to see if they can win against a top team, and they did not perform. Those are the kind of games that will haunt them at the end of the year, because you need to beat division rivals in order to get a good playoff spot. Plus, it’s oh so sweet when Ottawa gets to beat Montreal.
Ottawa had rarely been winning/losing two games in a row recently, and the game against Washington gave them a chance to get back and start another streak and keep some momentum going. That did not work, despite the teams best efforts. So now after Senators fans got their hopes up a bit, it has come back down in the last few days once again.
Let’s take a look at where the team was after the win on Friday. Ottawa’s record was 14-12-6 with 34 points. Although Florida had two games in hand, Ottawa was sitting just two points back of the final playoff spot. Here was the rest of the wild card standings:
They even had a chance to leap frog Boston who had played one more game than the Senators. There were plenty of teams around them, but things were looking more positive. According to sportsclubstats.com, the team had a 34.52% chance to make the playoffs, up from 18.83% after the shootout loss to Buffalo. However, those back to back losses have put a real dent in the teams playoff hopes.
That mini resurgence was short lived, and now Ottawa’s chances of making the playoffs are at an all-time low of 18.25%. Yes, of course there is plenty of time left in the season, but somehow at the moment this is the lowest the Senators have been all season. Looking at the standings just four days later, and things look much more complicated.
While Ottawa still sits in the same spot (fifth) in the wild card standings, surrounding teams have made up ground and the Senators have also played more games than most. Instead of being two points out, Ottawa is now four points out, and the New York Rangers also have three games in hand. The Florida Panthers are also four points up, with two games in hand. Even teams like the Philadelphia Flyers and the Columbus Blue Jackets could surpass Ottawa soon.
The Flyers could be tied with Ottawa if they win their game in hand, and the Blue Jackets have been the hottest team this month, going 8-1-1. It’s not hard to see the Senators being in seventh place very quickly. At the moment, it looks like there is only one place where Ottawa can squeak in, and that is the last wild card spot. The Toronto Maple Leafs are seven points ahead, and while that’s not impossible to catch up to, it’s unlikely they will catch them and also have other teams not.
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So where would the team be if the games against Montreal and Washington were wins? Well for one, the optimism surrounding the team would be sky-high, as their record in the last six would be 5-0-1. Furthermore, they would be tied with the Rangers and Panthers for the last playoff spot. They would technically be in fourth because of games in hand, but there situation would be much better, and catching the Maple Leafs would look a lot more plausible.
There are certain games in the year that are “must-wins.” I would say the game against Montreal was certainly one of those, and the Washington game wasn’t quite to that extent, but it was important. There are also stretches in the season where the team needs to get a lot of wins, and Ottawa needs to do that soon or else it’ll be too late. It’s impossible for a team to make the playoffs without having lengthy winning streaks. Starting on January 6th, the schedule for Ottawa gets much easier for a while, so maybe that will get the stretch that the team gains some ground on others.
Besides the back to back losses against the Panthers and Lightning, these two losses against the Canadiens and Capitals appear to be the most detrimental to the Senators playoff hopes so far. Things could have gone so differently, but it appears that Ottawa simply is not a playoff team. There’s still time to see what they really are, but as of now it’s not looking great.
After a promising win against the Ducks, the Senators certainly brought peoples expectations down the earth over the weekend.