Where Do The Ottawa Senators Stand?

After last night’s second straight loss to the New York Islanders, the Ottawa Senators have gone 1-5-1 in their last seven games, dropping their overall record to a measly 10-10-5. They are “technically” at .500, although in reality they have won 10 games, and lost 15. To make matters worse, they haven’t won back-to-back games since November 4th and 6th. It’s clear that they have not been playing well since their fast start, and now some questions have to be asked.

Where do the Ottawa Senators stand at this point, and where are they headed this season? As of this afternoon on December 5th, the Senators sit 11th in the Eastern Conference, 4 points back of the last wildcard spot and there are two teams ahead of them that they would have to jump. Safe to say that things are not looking good. Let’s take a look at their chances of making the playoffs via stats.

According to Sports Club Stats, Ottawa has a 34.3% chance to make the playoffs, which is surprisingly a bit higher than I thought it would be. However, looking at the trend they are going at, it’s not pretty. After beating Minnesota a month ago, the team was 7-3-2, and their chances of making the playoffs (albeit extremely early in the season) were at a high mark of 79.11%. Since then, the team has gone on a downward spiral with a record of 3-7-3. To make matters worse, two of those wins came in extra time.

Looking at the trend they are going at, it’s not pretty

Right now, it looks like Tampa Bay and Montreal will safely be two of the top three Atlantic teams to make the playoffs. Montreal may not be as legitimate a team as the Lightning, but that debate is for another day. After that, one would think that Boston is the easy choice for at least third in the division. However, the Red Wings are playing well with a record of 15-6-5, so they might not be destined for a wildcard spot.

Anyhow, right now I can’t imagine Ottawa passing any four of those teams, which means that there is essentially one spot left for them, which is the last wildcard spot. In my mind, the Metropolitan has three clearly superior teams with the New York Islanders, Pittsburgh Penguins, and New York Rangers. So that means that in the end there could be the Toronto Maple Leafs, Florida Panthers, Washington Capitals, New Jersey Devils, and Philadelphia Flyers along with the Senators fighting for just a single playoff spot.

It’s easy to say that Ottawa is only four points out, but right now there are so many teams involved you have to consider the amount of teams to get ahead of as well. Now, I’m not saying that making the playoffs is impossible. We’ve seen in 2010, 2012 and 2013 that this team can be unpredictable and go on runs that come out of nowhere. However, the math does not sympathize with them.

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Of course I understand that there is still 57 games left to be played, but the team may have to look at the situation realistically. In the past, people would say that the minimum amount of points required to make the playoffs is around 90. However, with more and more “loser points” being handed out, that number will shift to around 93-94 most likely. With the current record Ottawa has right now, in order to get to 94 points, they would have to go 31-19-7. That record is a 99-point pace over the course of a whole season, which definitely is not impossible. Even if they got to 94 points, they would only have a 79.1% chance to get in according to Sports Club Stats.

However, that record is at the low-end of the scale. If Ottawa wants to safely secure their spot, get the first wildcard or even get one of the three spots in the Atlantic, they will have to play like a contender. Right now Montreal has the lowest points per game amongst Tampa Bay and Detroit, but they are still on pace for 109 points. Even if that number were to drop to around 105, Ottawa would have to go 37-13-7 to surpass them. I don’t know about you, but the current team is not good enough to play that well over the course of 57 games.

There is still hope that the team can turn it around, but it will be tough. They need to play their absolute best over the next few months, and their possession numbers have to improve. That’s one reason why I’m not optimistic they will get in, because they rank 25th in corsi, 29th in fenwick, and they give up the 2nd most shots against per 60 minutes. Shot attempt numbers are usually good at predicting who has future success, and many people said that Ottawa was going to struggle if they had to rely on their goaltending all the time. Earlier in the season it was fine, but clearly in the last 13 games things have regressed back to normal. There’s hope that the numbers improve, but I’m cautiously optimistic.

They need to play their absolute best over the next few months, and their possession numbers have to improve

So if it is slightly unrealistic to expect Ottawa to make the playoffs, what happens with this season? Like I’ve said before, not making the playoffs this season isn’t the worst thing in the world. In case you haven’t heard (are you living under a rock?), the next generational talent Connor McDavid will be drafted in 2015 who could instantly make a team a contender. He has better numbers than Sidney Crosby when he was playing junior.

And this draft isn’t just about McDavid either. There’s Jack Eichel who will most likely go at number two who could also be a franchise cornerstone. After that, there’s a plethora of top-notch talent that could help a team within a year or two. There are plenty of high-scoring forwards, but also some quality defencemen that could be of interest to Ottawa. Either way, if Ottawa gets a top-5 or top-10 pick this year it could be huge for the future.

Is Ottawa going to win the Cup this year? No. There’s a chance they go on a mini-run to the second or third round, because anything can happen, but they aren’t going to beat the likes of Tampa Bay and Boston in the East, let alone Los Angeles and Chicago in the West. That’s why at some point in the next month or two if Ottawa is in the same spot, I think the team should try to trade some veteran assets that are of no use anymore.

For example, guys like Chris Phillips, Chris Neil, Milan Michalek, and Colin Greening, as well as some fringe defencemen that are quite frankly redundant on this team could and should be moved. I doubt many of those players net a great return, but the value comes in giving roster spots to players who deserve it like JG Pageau, Matt Puempel, Shane Prince, Chris Wideman, and Fredrik Claesson.

This is an interesting season for Ottawa, because I don’t know where they are going nor where they want to go. In my opinion, they should go for a mini-rebuild, or a “retool” and try to get a high draft pick. That doesn’t mean next year they won’t be competitive, but they will have to spend money to get a defenceman or two.

With all this being said, do you think Ottawa will make the playoffs?

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