Every Ottawa Senators fan is well aware of the blistering start that Mike Hoffman has gotten off to. Although he should have had a spot on the team no matter what, he had to fight for his position in training camp. He has shown the team that keeping him was a decision that they assuredly won’t regret.
Hoffman has 8 points in 16 games, which seems average for a rookie, but 7 of those points are goals. Furhthermore, he has gone pointless in his last three games, so actually last week he had 8 points in just 12 games. No doubt he has become one of Ottawa’s best goal scorers, as only Clarke MacArthur has more than him. He does so many things well, and he has blazing speed. I’ve always been a fan of him, and I’m so glad he’s enjoying success at the NHL level.
That being said, who is Mike Hoffman, and what kind of production can we expect from him? Currently, he’s on pace for 41 points (in an 82-game season), but 36 of those would be goals. Obviously he’ll pick up more assists and even out that ratio, but that’s extremely impressive right now.
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Does that mean that Hoffman is a 36 goal scorer? Well, most likely not. I think he has the skills to maybe do that once in his career, but that probably won’t happen this year. Right now his shooting percentage is 17.1%, which isn’t unheard of, but it definitely will come down. Even good shooters will shoot at about 15% tops, so there will be some regression from Hoffman.
Even with some regression, he will still be a great player, and even this year I expect him to score plenty of goals. The good thing is that he gets plenty of shots on goal, as he’s fifth on the team behind only Erik Karlsson, Clarke MacArthur, Bobby Ryan and Kyle Turris although he has played 2 or 3 less games than all of them. He is also second on the team in points per 60 minutes, so increased ice time could negate any regression. His shooting percentage will go down, but if he continues to generate lots of chances, the goals will come regardless.
Hoffman’s possession numbers are good too, which suggests that his success is legitimate, and that he can take a dip in shooting percentage/luck because he will be in the offensive zone more often than not. He is first on the team in corsi with 56.5%, and his corsi relative is second on the team at 8.90%. He has had quite easy minutes, with a lot of offensive zone starts, but I think he’ll be continually used like that throughout his career as his value on offense is much higher than on defence. I would think that over time he’ll have to player tougher minutes, but I doubt that he’s not up for the challenge.
So obviously he has had a great start to the season, but the question now is what to expect from him the rest of the way. Well, like I mentioned before, his luck will go down for shots on goal that’s for sure. Right now he’s averaging 2.56 shots per game. If he continues at that pace and his shooting percentage stays the same, he will score 36 goals like I said before. However, if his shooting percentage drops to 15%, his goal output changes to 31.
He will definitely be a 30-goal scorer at least multiple times in his career
At the very extreme end of this, if his percentage drops to 5% over the next 63 games, he will only score 15 total goals. So barring and injuries, I think it’s safe to say that he’ll score at least 15. However, 5% over 63 games is unlikely considering the exceptional shooter he is, so let’s look at a more reasonable number. Over the course of his 3 years in the AHL, Hoffman shot 9.9%. If he shot 9.9% over the next 63 games, his goal total would be 23. Even that number may be a bit low, but 23 goals is pretty great nonethelss for a rookie.
We know that Hoffman has always been a great shooter, so he’ll score more often than the average player on a shot. I’m not sure what percentage of goals he’ll end up scoring on this season, but I think for sure he’ll be at least a 20 goal scorer by the end of 2014-15. I think 30 goals isn’t out of the question for him this season, but it would be tough. In the long run, I think he will definitely be a 30-goal scorer at least multiple times in his career.
Ottawa has something special in Hoffman, and it’s not very often that they have a pure goal scorer in their lineup. While it’s still early, and it’s extremely hard to win the Calder Trophy, keep you eye out for him in the chase for rookie supremacy. We can’t expect the world from him, but I don’t think it’s too much to ask for at least a 20-25 goal scorer this season and for years to come.