Are the Senators Contenders?

The Senators are coming off of a tough 2-1 shootout loss to the Winnipeg Jets on Saturday, and their record fell to 7-3-3. Despite the loss, Ottawa still has not lost in regulation at home; they are the only team in the league to have done that. It was a frustrating loss no doubt, because it really seemed like they were going to find a way to score in overtime, and also not a single Ottawa shooter scored in the shootout. There was one positive from the game, and that was the fact that they won the possession battle.

Winnipeg was outshooting Ottawa 14-7 after the first period, but the final shots were 38-37 for Ottawa. Furthermore, the final shot attempts were 69-63, which is a great sign for a team that has constantly been outplayed and outchanced by the opposition. The corsi numbers bring me to my next point: is Ottawa a legitimate threat right now, or are they doomed for an inevtiable fall like the Toronto Maple Leafs of 2013-14?

Currently the Senators have 17 points in 13 games, sit in a wild card spot and rank 13th in the entire league. However, they have a chance to move up all the way to eighth in the league if they can win one or two games in hand that they currently have. That would put Ottawa in fantastic territory even if it is early in the season.

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No doubt fans have been excited with the good start that the team has had. However, the Senators need to play better, and it boils down to two factors. Firstly, Craig Anderson (mainly) and Robin Lehner have been lights out this season just like they were in 2012-13. Coming into tonight the teams save percentage at 5 on 5 ranked fifth in the league at 94.74%. Anderson has been one of the best, if not the best starting goaltender right now, as his overall save percentage ranks first at 95.1%. Furthermore, even Robin Lehner has outstanding numbers with a 92.7% save percentage.

While it’s fantastic that Ottawa’s two goaltenders have had huge bouncebacks from last year, I really don’t know (and I don’t think) they will be able to keep it up. We saw that Anderson’s 2012-13 was unsustainable because last year he was extremely bad. In that lockout season he only played 24 games, and if the season was an 82-game schedule I think we would have seen the hard regression on his play eventually. The same thing goes for Lehner, although I still believe Lehner is more talented and the goalie of the future.

Goalies save percentages fluctuate so much, and there’s no way that the team will be able to stop this many pucks. The good thing is, the Senators need just one of Anderson or Lehner to be good, but that’s easier said than done. Last year neither of them got the job done, and the team crumbled because of it.

Anderson and Lehner’s extremely high save percentages wouldn’t matter so much normally, but it does right now for Ottawa. And that’s because the team has been heavily outshot game after game. That’s why it was a good sign to see that Ottawa outshot Winnipeg tonight. It’s just simple math that if a team is being outshot the majority of the time in an 82-game schedule, they aren’t going to be successful for very long. We’ve seen it a few times like Colorado last year where they rode Semyon Varlamov’s excellent play and the high shooting percentages of their young players, but it will be hard for Ottawa to keep it up.

Right now Ottawa’s corsi at 5 on 5 is 27th in the league at 45.3%. Also, their raw shot totals rank 29th in the league, with a percentage of 44%. The Senators are making the notoriously poor possession Maple Leafs look like the Los Angeles Kings. It’s just a simple concept that if you are going to be outshot all the time, you won’t be a contender. Your team can still make the playoffs by riding the percentages, but you will not go far.

It’s just a simple concept that if you are going to be outshot all the time, you won’t be a contender

It has been a good start for Ottawa so far, and it’s fun watching Anderson play fantastic and the team win some games. However, it’s hard to be very optimistic when you can feel a Toronto-like collapse coming late in the season. While it may look like the Senators are on the verge of being contenders, they need to pick up some slack.

I do not like being negative at all, instead I’m trying to be realistic. I like a lot of the pieces on the team including the young forwards and the goaltenders, but from a possession standpoint they have not played well. They are certainly getting luckier than last year, so that may perhaps change peoples perception on how the team is doing.

I am waiting for a dip in performance from the goalies at some point in the season, and when that comes, the team needs to have better possession numbers. That’s not inconceivable, considering we’re only 13 games into the season. But these 13 games are not a good indicator for future success that is heavily reliant on extremely good goaltending. I like the team, and I think they can make the playoffs, but as of now it’s hard to see them as a contender while they are getting outchanced in most of their games.

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