Corsi/Fenwick Analysis of Senators

facebooktwitterreddit

Statistics gain meaning when a large sample size is used. For this analysis we will not be using a large sample size. The Senators have only played three games. It is still important to analyze the Senators recent games although the sample size is small. The Senators are 2-1-0. The Senators have scored five goals on the season, they have also given up five goals. In five on five play they have scored three goals and given up three goals.   Ottawa is currently ranked 27th in even strength Corsi +/- with -43, 29th in Fenwick +/- with -39. Corsi represents every shot taken at the opponents net. This includes blocked shots, shots that miss the net, shots on goal, tips, goals, any shot taken. Fenwick is the same except it removes blocked shots. Any shot that is blocked will not be counted towards Fenwick. The Senators have taken 25 shots this year that have been blocked, Ottawa has blocked 21 shots from the opponent.

The low rankings in Corsi and Fenwick are indicative of how the Senators have been playing. The Senators are lucky to currently be sitting at 2-1-0. If you do not believe in Corsi or Fenwick take a look at the recent Senators games they have played so far. In each game they have had a period where the opponent has had double the traditionally measured shots than the Senators.

PeriodOTTNSH
1st913
2nd510
3rd614
Total2037
PeriodOTTTBL
1st138
2nd618
3rd1314
OT20
Total3440
PeriodOTTFLA
1st67
2nd714
3rd109
Total2330

How are the Senators winning games? Simple… Stellar goaltending. The chart below displays how the Senators goalies have played thus far.

EvenPK
PlayerGPGASvSv%GASvSv%
Craig Anderson22550.965160.857
Robin Lehner11320.970140.8

Both Craig Anderson and Robin Lehner have played amazing thus far. They have a .965 and .970 save percentage while playing at even strength. They have not allowed the Senators poor play to eliminate winning games. The goalies will need more support in front of them as their save percentages will not hold at such high numbers all season. Anderson had a .924 and Lehner had a .919 save percentage at even strength last year. The league average for save percentage in five on five situations was .928 last season. If you take the league average for save percentage from last season, then take the Senators shots against, they should have given up 6.48 goals this season at even strength. Lehner and Anderson have kept an extra 3 to 4 goals out of the net this season. You can’t expect your goalies to continually make 14-18 saves a period while generating little offense. The Senators goalies have been doing so, but how long will it last for?

Who have been the players responsible for the Senators short comings? These are the six worst players on the team by Corsi +/-.

NameCorsi+/-CorsiForCorsiAgn
Chris.Phillips-343973
Cody.Ceci-294170
Curtis.Lazar-251843
Mark.Borowiecki-192645
Chris.Neil-182442
Eric.Gryba-132942

Chris Phillips has been on the ice for an astounding 73 shot attempts against, while only being on for 39 shot attempts towards the opponents net. He has averaged nearly 24 minutes of ice time over the first three games. A player who logs such heavy minutes must start to have a more meaningful impact on the game if the Senators hope to win consistently. On the opposite side of the spectrum are the six best players according to Corsi +/-.

NameCorsi+/-CorsiForCorsiAgn
Milan.Michalek195334
Alex.Chiasson124735
Erik.Karlsson97970
Mika.Zibanejad84840
Mike.Hoffman52823
Mark.Stone03030

Milan Michalek has the best Corsi +/- on the team. Only six players on the Senators are break even or above in Corsi +/-. It is not surprising. They have been heavily outshot in at least one period each game. It is extremely promising to see Alex Chiasson with high numbers. He came to the Senators in the Jason Spezza trade and shows tons of effort. I find Chiasson is easy to spot on the ice. He grinds hard and goes to the net.

The Senators as a team need to pick up their level of play. You cannot continually win games while being so heavily outshot. The goalies simply cannot maintain save percentages near .970 all year. Tonight’s game against Colorado will hopefully see an improvement in the offensive and defensive end. The Senators must start playing better defense, shooting more, and maintain a high level of goaltending. If they do not do those three things they will not make the playoffs.