Woe Canada: Which Canadian Team Will End Stanley Cup Drought?
Jun 13, 2014; Los Angeles, CA, USA; The Stanley Cup is on the ice after the Los Angeles Kings defeated the New York Rangers in second overtime during game five of the 2014 Stanley Cup Final at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Gary Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
When commissioner Gary Bettman haded the Stanley Cup to Los Angeles Kings’ captain Dustin Brown on Friday night, it marked the 20th time the Cup has been won and the team was not Canadian-based. The Montreal Canadiens’ startling run in 1993 capped a run of 8 championships in 19 years for Canada following the New York Islanders’ dynasty.
Since the Habs’ last lifted the Cup, 12 different franchises have won the final game played – New York Rangers, New Jersey Devils (3), Colorado Avalanche (2), Detroit Red Wings (4), Dallas Stars, Tampa Bay Lightning, Carolina Hurricanes, Anaheim Ducks, Pittsburgh Penguins, Chicago Blackhawks (2), Boston Bruins and Los Angeles Kings (2).
Canadian teams have had their opportunities, with Calgary, Edmonton, Ottawa, and Vancouver (twice) all reaching the Final over that time frame. This season, just one team made the post-season from the Great White North, an all new low that hasn’t been seen since the days of the Original Six.
So, how long will the streak go, and which Canadian will snap the 21 year drought?
CALGARY FLAMES
Mar 8, 2014; Vancouver, British Columbia, CAN; Calgary Flames forward
Sean Monahan
(23) skates against the Vancouver Canucks during the second period at Rogers Arena. The Vancouver Canucks won 2-1. Mandatory Credit: Anne-Marie Sorvin-USA TODAY Sports
The Flames last made the Finals in 2004 when they lost to the Hurricances. It marked the last time the franchise had a playoff series win, and although they made the postseason in each of the first 4 seasons after the 2004-05 lockout, they were first round fodder each time.
The Flames have missed the playoffs for the past 5 years, and just completed the first season in what could be a 3-4 year rebuild after the era of Jarome Iginla and Miikka Kiprusoff came to an end.
Enter the era of Sean Monahan and as of right now, not a whole lot else.
The Flames are not even close to being a Stanley Cup contender, and if they are going to be the ones to break the drought it will easily reach at least the 26 year mark, because they are at least 5 years and a lot of changes away.
ODDS OF BREAKING THE DROUGHT: 5%
EDMONTON OILERS
Mar 4, 2014; Edmonton, Alberta, CAN; Edmonton Oilers forward
Jordan Eberle
(14) celebrates a third period goal against the Ottawa Senators at Rexall Place. Mandatory Credit: Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports
The Oilers last made the finals in the year following the lockout of 2004-05, making the improbable run to the finals only to lose in 7 games to the Lightning. While that season gave the city some optimism that Edmonton could compete with the benefit of the new Salary Cap structure, that optimism has been crushed due to the fact they haven’t made the postseason since, let alone get back to the finals.
The Oilers have hit rock-bottom and they have been there for a while. 2013-14 was supposed to be the season that the Oilers showed some life and bounced back a little. If not to a playoff spot then at least to the point where they were playing meaningful games into late February or early March.
As it turned out, they were out of it by early November, and spent pretty much the whole season in a familiar spot – the basement of the Western Conference.
Up front, the building blocks are in place – Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins are all among the top-end players that have been amassed during the long slump and multiple first overall picks. However, the blue line has pretty much been ignored and if they are going to address this area it might take a trade to get the first overall pick from the Florida Panthers to draft Aaron Ekblad, far and away the top blueliner available. Ekblad won’t cure the ills of the Oilers overnight but it will be another step in the rebuild that has been going on too long for the fan base.
The Oilers also altered their goaltending drastically, and it remains to be seen if the duo of Ben Scrivens and Viktor Fasth is good enough to get them playing meaningful games into April.
ODDS OF BREAKING THE DROUGHT: 15%
MONTREAL CANADIENS
Jan 28, 2014; Montreal, Quebec, CAN; Montreal Canadiens defenseman
P.K. Subban
(76) congratulates teammate goalie
Carey Price
(31) after he made a save during the first period against the Carolina Hurricanes at the Bell Centre. The Montreal Canadiens defeated the Carolina Hurricanes 3-0. Mandatory Credit: Eric Bolte-USA TODAY Sports
As the last team to win the Cup, the Habs got within a game of reaching the Stanley Cup Final this season. They have 2 of the most important building blocks in place, and had Carey Price not been knocked out during game 1 of the Conference Finals, the Habs likely would have beaten the Rangers and gotten the opportunity to get beaten down by the Kings.
So they have the elite goaltending, and they also have the stud defenseman in P.K. Subban. They still need a lot of help up front because they are still undersized but somehow it has worked for them. As Alex Galchenyuk and Brendan Gallagher mature they will be the go-to guys along with Max Pacioretty. Its going to take some refining but the Habs have probably the most promising chance to break the drought.
ODDS OF BREAKING THE DROUGHT: 30%
OTTAWA SENATORS
Apr 13, 2014; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Ottawa Senators center
Kyle Turris
(left) and left wing
Clarke MacArthur
(16) and defenseman
Erik Karlsson
(65) stand for the national anthem before playing the Pittsburgh Penguins at the CONSOL Energy Center. The Senators won 3-2 in a shootout. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
A season after the Pesky Sens made some noise in the playoffs by eliminating the favored Habs in the first round in 2013, the Senators took a step backwards after the departure of Daniel Alfredsson and a regression in defensive play and most notably goaltending.
This projects to be another tumultuous off-season for the Sens, with the likely trade of another captain after Jason Spezza requested to be moved on.
When Spezza leaves it will put tremendous pressure on Kyle Turris as the number 1 center for a full season, a task that he hasn’t proved he is ready for.
Erik Karlsson had a great season offensively, but like most of the Senators, his own zone was a fire drill on most nights. The rest of the blue line struggled mightily although a bright spot was the rapid ascension of Cody Ceci through the ranks and the positive contribution he made as a 19 and 20 year old.
The inevitable trade of Spezza puts the 3 year rebuild plan (that had just finished year 3) back into effect, putting them a couple of years behind schedule.
With the internal budget still in effect, it is not going to be a quick trip to competitiveness.
ODDS OF BREAKING THE DROUGHT: 15%
TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS
Apr 8, 2014; Tampa, FL, USA; Toronto Maple Leafs defenseman
Dion Phaneuf
(3) and right wing
Phil Kessel
(81) talk against the Tampa Bay Lightning during the first period at Tampa Bay Times Forum. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
The Leafs looked home and cooled with a month left in the season, but an epic collapse down the stretch saw them on the outside looking in. While most figured that meltdown (combined with other previous collapses – remember the third period of Game 7 against the Bruins?) would cost coach Randy Carlyle his job, he was instead given a contract extension.
They Leafs are not that far off, actually. One of the top snipers in the league in Phil Kessel, solid and maturing goaltending in Jonathan Bernier and like it or not, a top end defenseman in Dion Phaneuf. Despite his inconsistent play at times, Phaneuf is still a top end blueliner and will soon get a better supporting cast as Morgan Rielly matures.
The Leafs scored enough to contend, but the defensive collapse that began with a late season injury to Bernier put them in the hole.
Like it or not, if Bernier had been healthy down the stretch the Leafs would have been a playoff team.
ODDS OF BREAKING THE DROUGHT: 20%
VANCOUVER CANUCKS
Mar 1, 2014; Vancouver, BC, Canada; Vancouver Canucks forward
Daniel Sedin
(22) and forward
Henrik Sedin
(33) during practice the day before the Heritage Classic hockey game at BC Place. Mandatory Credit: Anne-Marie Sorvin-USA TODAY Sports
The Canucks made the final in 2011 where they fell to the Bruins in 7 games.
The Canucks went from having probably the best goaltending combination in the league to probably the worst in the span of less than a year. The mis-management of the Canucks crease was the biggest factor in costing GM Mike Gillis his job, and rightly so because the debacle has turned them from contender to pretender.
Hiring John Tortorella was another huge mistake from the management and was quickly rectified after the season, although his successor has yet to be named.
The window of the Canucks is slamming shut, with Daniel Sedin and Henrik Sedin getting older and Ryan Kesler requesting to be moved. Combine that with the ridiculous road through the playoffs in the west that is only getting tougher, and the Canucks are in trouble.
ODDS OF BREAKING THE DROUGHT: 5%
WINNIPEG JETS
Mar 27, 2014; San Jose, CA, USA; Winnipeg Jets defenseman
Dustin Byfuglien
(33) celebrates with left wing
Andrew Ladd
(16) after scoring a goal against the San Jose Sharks during the second period at SAP Center at San Jose. Mandatory Credit: Ed Szczepanski-USA TODAY Sports
The Jets franchise, that has qualified for the playoffs only once, and has never won a single post-season game, has a long road to go. Entering their 4th season in Winnipeg, the honeymoon might be ending and the fan base needs to see some positive results. They got a boost with Paul Maurice agreeing to return behind the bench after he made some headway with the franchise after taking over from Claude Noel mid-season.
The Jets have a solid core that is building towards competitiveness, with Andrew Ladd, Evander Kane, Blake Wheeler and Mark Scheifele in the mix. Jacob Trouba is developing into a stud defenseman and with the support of Tobias Enstrom and Zach Bogosian they have the makings of a solid blue line.
The Jets are a team on the rise, with the biggest question mark in goal and whether Ondrej Pavelec is capable of being a guy that can shoulder the load and get them to the playoffs.
ODDS OF BREAKING THE DROUGHT: 10%
Mar 22, 2014; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs forward
David Clarkson
(71) and Montreal Canadiens defenseman
Alexei Emelin
(74) battle along the boards during the second period at the Air Canada Centre. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports
So there it is. As hard as it is for me to write, the Habs and the Leafs have the best chances to break the Canadian drought. The Western Conference teams are at a disadvantage right away because of the gauntlet they have to run with the likes of Chicago, St. Louis, Los Angeles all standing in the way.
As for the Senators, questions of depth at forward and uncertainty in goal as well as their unwillingness to spend to the cap greatly hurt their chances of being the team to burst through and end the streak.
DOES IT REALLY MATTER?
While the media makes a lot of the lack of Canadian team success, does it really matter to a Canadian fan if it isn’t their team that hoists the Holy Grail of Hockey? Will a fan of the Montreal Canadiens or Toronto Maple Leafs really get more satisfaction if the Calgary Flames win the cup as opposed to the Chicago Blackhawks?
Would a Senators fan rather see the Canucks win the Cup than the Dallas Stars or Washington Capitals?
I think that while they will watch, there is a measure of jealousy and god forbid from a Senators perspective if the Leafs of Habs do indeed win the Cup.